Trading Apple

[Coleman]

if you want a fun stock trade HLF, PBR will be less volatile now that their audited financials are out. i do think PBR is going to kill its Q1 earnings when it releases in a couple of weeks and thinking of increasing my position.

Got in PBR already once in the high 7s and then again in the mid 8s

Very very very small positions though...

HLF looks pretty fun just by looking at their recent chart!  Volatility with such a high price is interesting!

Would have been up 21% on HLF....

Furioussugar - you're welcome (for the setup)

 

[ps99472]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

 

[nosuchreality]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

To quote James Carville while handling Bill Clinton.

"The Economy, Stupid"

 

[Irvinecommuter]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

To quote James Carville while handling Bill Clinton.

"The Economy, Stupid"

Tech companies are hitting a plateau in consumer products...4K/UDH TVs are great but I can survive with my HD flatscreen...we are reaching point in cell phones where the next iteration is not a must update.  Apple just hit that plateau a little later than other companies.  Samsung hit that plateau a couple of years ago.

Apple has a serious future issue:  Iphone are good but the Iphone 7 is already seen as a minimal upgrade.  Ipad sales are dropping and losing to competitors.  Mac notebooks are nice but overpriced.  Apple Watch is a dud. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

So when this thread was started, December 2011, AAPL was mid $50s (split adjusted), it is now hovering around high $90s (after hitting a high of $130 last year).

That's still pretty good right?

If AAPL's future is doomed, anyone want to sell me their shares at $80?

 

[eyephone]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

http://fortune.com/2016/04/15/apple-iphone-parts-makers-warn-of-weak-second-quarter/

This should of given you heads up.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

http://fortune.com/2016/04/15/apple-iphone-parts-makers-warn-of-weak-second-quarter/

This should of given you heads up.

And that?s actually a discount. Since cresting in April of 2015, Apple has lost 29% of its value, shedding $218 billion in market cap, roughly equal to the combined capitalizations of Intel  INTC 0.53%  and Adobe Systems  ADBE -1.31% .

That means investors are expecting a lot less from the iPhone-maker. Indeed, in its earnings report for second quarter of 2016 (ended March 31), Apple?s net profits dropped 22% to $10.5 billion from $13.6 billion in the same quarter a year ago, and its gross margins?the percentage of revenue was left after paying the cost of manufacturing its iPhones and computers?fell to 39.4% from 40.8%. For its third quarter, Apple is predicting a continuing decline in margins, to 37.5%.

http://fortune.com/2016/04/27/apple-stock-buy/

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Apple Watch is a dud. 

It may not be selling as much as analysts expected but I don't think it's a "dud".
http://bgr.com/2016/04/26/apple-watch-sales-vs-rolex/

So, just to reiterate one last time and let it really sink in, Apple Watch sales totaled about $6 billion in its first year of existence. Meanwhile, the world?s foremost luxury watch brand did $4.5 billion in sales across its entire product portfolio last year. In fact, the combined sales of all top Swiss watch makers totaled roughly $20 billion in 2015, so Apple is nearly one-third of the way there after just one year.

 

[eyephone]

First GOOGL, now AAPL with a miss, what's going on?

Icahn sold stake in Apple, according to the article.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/apple-shares-plunge-after-ichan-says-he-sold-his-stake.html

 

[jerometl]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

 

[eyephone]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

 

[jerometl]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

But there is a decent probability that they will produce another blockbuster product making them a growth company again.  If not, downside is really limited.

Think Microsoft, they haven't really have any blockbuster product in a decade or so, yet if you had owned their stock at any point after the dotcom bubble, your holding is still fine.  (and to think microsoft current PE is way much higher than apple).

 

[jerometl]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

It doesn't really matter .. at this point, Apple is a long term hold and will just add position slowly over time unless their business outlook had totally changed long term, then I might exit all at some point (think Yahoo or Blackberry)

For speculative position (in and out of position), I have Amazon, netflix and the like for such.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

It doesn't really matter .. at this point, Apple is a long term hold and will just add position slowly over time unless their business outlook had totally changed long term, then I might exit all at some point (think Yahoo or Blackberry)

For speculative position (in and out of position), I have Amazon, netflix and the like for such.

I would agree with that...if you have Apple you should definitely hold longterm.  It has a significant and loyal share of the market.  People just need to adjust their expectations accordingly.  I would put Google there as well.

Facebook surprisingly has done probably the best out of the bunch.

 

[eyephone]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

It doesn't really matter .. at this point, Apple is a long term hold and will just add position slowly over time unless their business outlook had totally changed long term, then I might exit all at some point (think Yahoo or Blackberry)

For speculative position (in and out of position), I have Amazon, netflix and the like for such.

I would agree with that...if you have Apple you should definitely hold longterm.  It has a significant and loyal share of the market.  People just need to adjust their expectations accordingly.  I would put Google there as well.

Facebook surprisingly has done probably the best out of the bunch.

The main difference between FB and Apple are the following: FB M&A activity and FB ad revenue.

Also, FB is hitting the mark on inovation.

 

[eyephone]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

It doesn't really matter .. at this point, Apple is a long term hold and will just add position slowly over time unless their business outlook had totally changed long term, then I might exit all at some point (think Yahoo or Blackberry)

For speculative position (in and out of position), I have Amazon, netflix and the like for such.

Isn't Yahoo for sale?
http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/yahoo-narrows-sale-10-bidders/

 

[eyephone]

What are the new products for Apple?
iPhone 7, Apple Watch 2

 

[jerometl]

with PE ratio in the low 10s and dividend yield of 2%+, downside is really limited.  If these are high PE stock like amazon or netflix, I'll be worried, but not Apple at these prices.

So then is the upside...AAPL is basically a blue-chip stock at this point with limited growth but good dividends.

Wil it drop to the 80s?

It doesn't really matter .. at this point, Apple is a long term hold and will just add position slowly over time unless their business outlook had totally changed long term, then I might exit all at some point (think Yahoo or Blackberry)

For speculative position (in and out of position), I have Amazon, netflix and the like for such.

Isn't Yahoo for sale?
http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/yahoo-narrows-sale-10-bidders/

Yahoo business model is dying ... only reason the stock is alive is on their Alibaba stake and other legacy brand and assets,  thus I don't consider that a long term investment.. maybe for speculative short term play hoping someone will overpay for their assets.

 

[eyephone]

Tim Cook appeared on Mad Money with Cramer.
In my opinion, a desperate move.

Update:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ti...iew-called-desperate-by-twitterati-2016-05-03