What are we comparing Irvine crime rates to? Are we talking about Irvine vs. Compton, or Irvine vs. Aliso Viejo?
Because if you look at the crime rates, then Aliso Viejo, Laguna Niguel, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, Villa Park, and Yorba Linda all have similar or lower crime rates. Wouldn't they command the same premium as Irvine or more since some have lower crime rates? I can tell you that the sheriff responds very quickly in Villa Park, just as quickly as Irvine PD. Does that mean I should be bullish on Villa Park real estate? Because I am not, and I own here. I wish low crime made my house not lose value, but then I understand the rudimentary and very basics of the economics of real estate and micro econ overall.
Then if you go here, you will see that Irvine had 35 calls since 7/1/09. That is more than N. Tustin, Villa Park and Yorba Linda combined. Hell, that is twice as much than Orange had, and even when you adjust for population it is a lower crime rate. Even Huntington Beach (roughly the same population as Irvine) only had 7 more calls than Irvine, and everyone knows how rowdy HB gets during the 4th. Newport was lower too, and it gets really rowdy for the 4th. Ladera Ranch had nothing in that time frame, so wouldn't it command an even higher premium over Irvine?
When I lived in Tustin Ranch, a little girl went missing. Tustin PD was all over it, with their helicopter blaring "Angela, if you are out there do not be afraid, and go home. The police are here to help you." Irvine PD was bored, so they sent over some units too. After about an hour of hoping Angela would be found soon so that I could go to bed, they must of found her. I never witnessed anything like that. Does that mean that Tustin and Tustin Ranch command a similar premium to Irvine?
Or what the point really is, is that cities in low crime rate areas cost more because they are safe? Isn't that why most of Santa Ana (Floral Park, Park Santiago, and few other areas being an exception) has always been cheaper? Yeah, Irvine has low crime, so does Villa Park, N. Tustin, Yorba Linda, etc., but that doesn't make them immune from the bubble bursting. Just look at the ever increasing foreclosures in Irvine...
http://i30.tinypic.com/15yvqxz.jpg
BTW, Irvine hit the
800 mark today. Good job Irvine! For a good comparison, Huntington Beach has about the same population and the same amount of owner occupied housing stock as Irvine, and there they have 75 less in foreclosure. Seems that Irvine is less special than HB.