The recession is coming

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WTTCHMN said:
It's been Chinatown for quite some time, all by design:http://www.ocweekly.com/news/south-...se-these-days-and-its-not-by-accident-6781849
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I noticed that the article you posted mentions UNION PAY which is a Chinese credit card service.  Currently, $50,000 per year is the maximum amount one Chinese person can take out of their country legally.  If I were a Chinese National, and I used UNION PAY and charge say $100,000 at south coast plaza did I just break the law?...or is that a loophole?

Our communist friends are looking for ways to stem the tide of outflows for their depreciating RMB.....I'm trying to be helpful.
 
zubs said:
WTTCHMN said:
It's been Chinatown for quite some time, all by design:http://www.ocweekly.com/news/south-...se-these-days-and-its-not-by-accident-6781849
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I noticed that the article you posted mentions UNION PAY which is a Chinese credit card service.  Currently, $50,000 per year is the maximum amount one Chinese person can take out of their country legally.  If I were a Chinese National, and I used UNION PAY and charge say $100,000 at south coast plaza did I just break the law?...or is that a loophole?

Our communist friends are looking for ways to stem the tide of outflows for their depreciating RMB.....I'm trying to be helpful.
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Union Pay is for lightweights.  The real ballers use a no-limit AMEX:http://nypost.com/2015/11/18/billionaire-bought-170m-painting-with-his-amex-for-the-points/
 
I guess xijinping's got a lot more work ahead of him.  I'll leave him to it then...Although, his relatives & friends would probably complain heavily if he closes the credit card loophole.  Not to mention south coast plaza!
 
irvinehomeowner said:
zubs said:
I haven't seen any Chinese signage in Irvine, has it started yet?
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I believe Walnut and Jeffrey is Patient Zero.
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You are correct.  Back in the old days when TIC didn't rent to Chinese businesses, the Walnut & Jeffrey retail center was Irvine's Chinese ghetto. 
 
WTTCHMN said:
"White" mexicans aren't that rare.  They typically have "white" first names rather than traditional Spanish names; for instance, all the news reporters on TV.

Also, most Cubans are pretty "white" except the Olympians in track & field, boxing and women's volleyball (e.g. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio).
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When I was in high school some Mexican neighbors of mine hosted an exchange student from Mexico.  My neighbors had dark hair and dark skin and the Mexican exchange student had blonde hair blue eyes.
 
I guess I'm "white chinese"...born in the LA area, a lot of my chinese friends have been in the US since they were in elementary school if they immigrated or were born in the US, so mostly white washed.  I went to school at UCI and most of my friends there were also "white chinese", so zubs statement holds true for me.  Not to say I don't have friends that are chinese chinese but I hang out with my white chinese buddies more.

zubs said:
The asians in Irvine are whiter than the asians in Rowland Heights or mon-tree park....so there's that.

I was drinking with my Mexican neighbor the other day and he mentioned that the white-Mexicans don't really hang with the mexican mexicans....I'm guessing this is the same for the white chinese vs. chinese chinese.

But it does look like in another 10 years, Irvine may be more chinese chinese than the current status.  Atleast your high property values will make it easy to sell and gtfo.
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Banana = yellow on the outside, white on the inside.

Eggs = white anime/manga otakus who wish they were born in Japan where they have "real culture".

 
This thread is proof no one has a clue what happens next, no matter how many articles they read.

Market timing is not possible.

 
Something has to cause the recession.  In my mind, the biggest risk that would cause a recession is the Fed moving up rates than expected and/or 10-year & 30-year bond rates heading over 4%.  That being said, I just don't see that in the near term. I spoke to all my clients about their businesses and how the companies that they are working at are doing, from what I hear things are going well....increasing business/profits, good raises/bonuses, lot of new job opportunities/higher staff turnover, higher stock prices, etc. The new tax bill won't cause a recession and should be more of a tailwind for businesses.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Something has to cause the recession.  In my mind, the biggest risk that would cause a recession is the Fed moving up rates than expected and/or 10-year & 30-year bond rates heading over 4%.  That being said, I just don't see that in the near term. I spoke to all my clients about their businesses and how the companies that they are working at are doing, from what I hear things are going well....increasing business/profits, good raises/bonuses, lot of new job opportunities/higher staff turnover, higher stock prices, etc. The new tax bill won't cause a recession and should be more of a tailwind for businesses.
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Anything can happen. Oil prices, geo political

But I don?t think it will happen.
 
No recession in 2018.

We might see a stock market correction within the next 12 month but there?s absolutely no sign of recession. 
 
Every economic forecast I've read is positive about 2018 with a predicted recession in 2019 or 2020.  History has shown that when everyone is predicting the same outcome; that outcome rarely occurs.
 
eyephone said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Something has to cause the recession.  In my mind, the biggest risk that would cause a recession is the Fed moving up rates than expected and/or 10-year & 30-year bond rates heading over 4%.  That being said, I just don't see that in the near term. I spoke to all my clients about their businesses and how the companies that they are working at are doing, from what I hear things are going well....increasing business/profits, good raises/bonuses, lot of new job opportunities/higher staff turnover, higher stock prices, etc. The new tax bill won't cause a recession and should be more of a tailwind for businesses.
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Anything can happen. Oil prices, geo political

But I don?t think it will happen.
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Anything can happen, but I think interest rates spiking up has the highest probability of being the catalyst for the start of the next recession. 
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Something has to cause the recession.  In my mind, the biggest risk that would cause a recession is the Fed moving up rates than expected and/or 10-year & 30-year bond rates heading over 4%.  That being said, I just don't see that in the near term. I spoke to all my clients about their businesses and how the companies that they are working at are doing, from what I hear things are going well....increasing business/profits, good raises/bonuses, lot of new job opportunities/higher staff turnover, higher stock prices, etc. The new tax bill won't cause a recession and should be more of a tailwind for businesses.
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Aren't those the things that lead to higher rates?  I think folks are a bit too cavalier about higher rates.  There's probability and then there's consequence.  We spend too much time dismissing the probability of higher rates, and we are completely ignoring the consequences of high rates.  A 1% increase would really shake things up.
 
daedalus said:
USCTrojanCPA said:
Something has to cause the recession.  In my mind, the biggest risk that would cause a recession is the Fed moving up rates than expected and/or 10-year & 30-year bond rates heading over 4%.  That being said, I just don't see that in the near term. I spoke to all my clients about their businesses and how the companies that they are working at are doing, from what I hear things are going well....increasing business/profits, good raises/bonuses, lot of new job opportunities/higher staff turnover, higher stock prices, etc. The new tax bill won't cause a recession and should be more of a tailwind for businesses.
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Aren't those the things that lead to higher rates?  I think folks are a bit too cavalier about higher rates.  There's probability and then there's consequence.  We spend too much time dismissing the probability of higher rates, and we are completely ignoring the consequences of high rates.  A 1% increase would really shake things up.
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I don't disagree with you, hence why I mentioned that I think the one thing that'll lead to the next recession will be higher rates.
 
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