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I didn't say a bond bubble was about to burst.  That's a lie on your part. 

What I said is bonds are in a bubble, period.  No prediction was made about the timeline of eventual declines in the bond market.  The reason no prediction was made was because bonds are not a "free" market when it comes to price discovery.  The Fed and other central bankers are calling the shots and I can't predict the behavior of a handful of powerful individuals.  Many forecasters have tried over the past 10 years and been proven wrong by Bernanke/Yellen/Powell.

For somebody simply interested in long term investing, bonds are not the place to be.  The traditional 60/40 portfolio will not have good performance results over the coming decades.  Short term movement in and out of bonds is still fine, depending on stock market volatility.

My past record is correctly predicting the housing market (buy call in June 2009), stocks (buy call in July 2009), gold (sell call in Spring 2011; An argument with Awgee on my gold call used to be here on TI but I think Panda deleted the thread; Panda was a gold bull and needed to bury the body. :) ), and bitcoin (called a crash in Nov 2017; See the bitcoin thread).  I really don't care if others think I have credibility in this area, but the fact is my record is pretty solid. 

That being said, nobody should listen to an anonymous stranger on the Internet for investing advice.  The fact that you believe others should listen to you, shows you are not credible when it comes to providing advice.
 
Let?s take you at your word about the bubble, that you didn?t call for it to burst right away although I distinctly remember otherwise  .

Anyways , bubble would at least need a 10 percent collapse for it to be a bubble , correct ? Heck your bitcoin bubble has had an 85 percent correction

I actually walked you through a scenario where this was a tiny probability based on the mathematics of how duration and inflation work ? and that it was a near impossibility for intermediate treasuries to lose 10 percent ?  And that is exactly how it played out.

Lot of people on this forum were taking the (at that time) recent rate sell off and calling for rates to continue going higher .  I was among the few calling for zero panic on the rates front and actually walked through my rationale as to why - I didn?t post any random clickbait headlines from popular media .

Now in my line of work , if some one has a better mousetrap or a bette logic than me , the prudent course of action is to listen and improve your own thinking . But the political lens you employ to dismiss arguments and jump straight to character accusations is a mark of losing argument .
 
?CNBC article:Michael Flynn sentencing delayed as judge tells ex-Trump official: 'You sold your country out'

The sentencing of former national security advisor Michael Flynn is postponed less than two hours after it began.

Flynn accepts an offer to delay the sentencing when Judge

Emmet Sullivan warned he might send Flynn to jail for lying to FBI agents about his conversations with a Russian diplomat shortly before President Donald Trump took office.
The judge tells Flynn that "arguably you sold your country out."

Source:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ynn-you-sold-your-country-out-at-hearing.html

 
eyephone said:
?CNBC article:Michael Flynn sentencing delayed as judge tells ex-Trump official: 'You sold your country out'

The sentencing of former national security advisor Michael Flynn is postponed less than two hours after it began.

Flynn accepts an offer to delay the sentencing when Judge

Emmet Sullivan warned he might send Flynn to jail for lying to FBI agents about his conversations with a Russian diplomat shortly before President Donald Trump took office.
The judge tells Flynn that "arguably you sold your country out."

Source:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ynn-you-sold-your-country-out-at-hearing.html
Click to expand...

Defense lawyers last week in their court filing noted that Flynn did not have an attorney with during that Jan. 24, 2017, interview, and agents didn't warn him that he could be prosecuted if he lied to them.

"I cannot recall any incident in which the court accepted a guilty plea in which he was not guilty, and I don't intend to start today," Sullivan said.

"Are you continuing to accept responsibility for your false statements?" Sullivan asked.

"I am, your honor," Flynn answered.
Click to expand...

the fix was in and the judge's eyes are wide open.  flynn will be cleared in a few months and this whole thing is going to blow back into mueller's face bigly!
 
Kings said:
eyephone said:
?CNBC article:Michael Flynn sentencing delayed as judge tells ex-Trump official: 'You sold your country out'

The sentencing of former national security advisor Michael Flynn is postponed less than two hours after it began.

Flynn accepts an offer to delay the sentencing when Judge

Emmet Sullivan warned he might send Flynn to jail for lying to FBI agents about his conversations with a Russian diplomat shortly before President Donald Trump took office.
The judge tells Flynn that "arguably you sold your country out."

Source:https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cn...ynn-you-sold-your-country-out-at-hearing.html
Click to expand...

Defense lawyers last week in their court filing noted that Flynn did not have an attorney with during that Jan. 24, 2017, interview, and agents didn't warn him that he could be prosecuted if he lied to them.

"I cannot recall any incident in which the court accepted a guilty plea in which he was not guilty, and I don't intend to start today," Sullivan said.

"Are you continuing to accept responsibility for your false statements?" Sullivan asked.

"I am, your honor," Flynn answered.
Click to expand...

the fix was in and the judge's eyes are wide open.  flynn will be cleared in a few months and this whole thing is going to blow back into mueller's face bigly!
Click to expand...

Please stop playing internet attorney...it does not suit you.

You are not required to have an attorney with you during questioning...you can stop answering questions without your attorney present.

FBI agents/cops do not need to warn you of anything.  They are even allowed to lie to you.

LOL...

The sentencing for President Donald Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn was postponed until 2019 after a dramatic federal court hearing Tuesday.

Flynn, who pleaded guilty last year, said "I was aware" that lying to the FBI was a crime, but prosecutors from special counsel Robert Mueller's office had called for him to get little to no jail time because he has cooperated extensively. They also said Flynn may continue to cooperate in a future trial.
Judge Emmet Sullivan of the US District Court for the District of Columbia said he was "not hiding my disgust, my disdain for your criminal offense."

"I want to be frank with you, this crime is very serious," Sullivan said. "Not only did you lie to the FBI, you lied to senior officials in the incoming administration."
Click to expand...
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/michael-flynn-sentencing-mueller-russia-probe/index.html
 
CNN article:Trump Foundation agrees to dissolve under court supervision

?President Donald Trump's personal charitable foundation has agreed to dissolve under judicial supervision amid an ongoing lawsuit concerning its finances, according to a document filed Tuesday in Manhattan Supreme Court by the New York state Attorney General's office.

The agreement filed Tuesday won't end the state's lawsuit against Trump's charity, which also seeks two other outcomes: $2.8 million in restitution, plus penalties, and a ban on Trump and his children serving on the board of any other New York nonprofit.

The office had objected to the charity's prior attempts to disband before the New York lawsuit was filed, saying it couldn't shut down while under investigation. Tuesday's agreement largely reflects a victory for the attorney general's office, including a requirement that the parties must jointly submit to the court a list of nonprofits that will receive the charity's remaining funds.?

Source:https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/trump-foundation-dissolve/index.html

 
eyephone said:
CNN article:Trump Foundation agrees to dissolve under court supervision

?President Donald Trump's personal charitable foundation has agreed to dissolve under judicial supervision amid an ongoing lawsuit concerning its finances, according to a document filed Tuesday in Manhattan Supreme Court by the New York state Attorney General's office.

The agreement filed Tuesday won't end the state's lawsuit against Trump's charity, which also seeks two other outcomes: $2.8 million in restitution, plus penalties, and a ban on Trump and his children serving on the board of any other New York nonprofit.

The office had objected to the charity's prior attempts to disband before the New York lawsuit was filed, saying it couldn't shut down while under investigation. Tuesday's agreement largely reflects a victory for the attorney general's office, including a requirement that the parties must jointly submit to the court a list of nonprofits that will receive the charity's remaining funds.?

Source:https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/politics/trump-foundation-dissolve/index.html
Click to expand...

Huh did I read this right ?

Wasn?t the Clinton foundation supposed to be the one getting sued and shutting down

Another instance of #winning I guess :)
 
Irvinecommuter said:
morekaos said:
More nothing will come of it...don?t you sense a pattern?

IS THIS IT?: A TRUMP-HATER?S GUIDE TO MUELLER SKEPTICISM

We see the familiar cycle of hype, and there?s no use fighting it, but, once heart rates have slowed, the same old question remains: so what? Some of the news, such as a Guardian story that Manafort met three times with Julian Assange, seems to be based on nothing at all. But even the solid news turns out to be generally non-earth-shattering. As the journalist Aaron Mat? has been pointing out, we already knew the timeline of Cohen?s Moscow efforts, because BuzzFeed had already detailed them in May, painting a picture of a bumbling duo getting high on their own supply. (As for the latest revelations, did Sater and Cohen really think a president of Russia would move into a free $50 million penthouse provided by a U.S. presidential candidate? You have to wonder if they were hitting each other on the head with bricks.) Those who hope that Mueller reveals a shambolic operation with a lot of rascals engaged in sleazy and embarrassing behavior will be happy with the fruits of his labors. But those who hope for an unveiling of indictments linking Putin and Trump in a grand conspiracy have no more reason to celebrate than they did a week or a month ago.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12/a-trump-haters-guide-to-mueller-skepticism
Click to expand...

Wait...you are quoting from an article mocking Trumpsters to support your contention that the Mueller probe is nothing?
Click to expand...


?CNN article: Trump signed letter of intent for Trump Tower Moscow project despite Giuliani insisting he didn'

A newly obtained document shows President Donald Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Russia, despite his attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming on Sunday the document was never signed.

CNN's Chris Cuomo obtained a copy of the signed letter of intent that set the stage for negotiations for Trump condominiums, a hotel and commercial property in the heart of Moscow. The letter is dated October 28, 2015, and bears the President's signature.

When asked on Sunday about the letter, Giuliani incorrectly told CNN's Dana Bash that it had not been signed.

"It was a real estate project. There was a letter of intent to go forward, but no one signed it," Giuliani told Bash.?

Source:https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/po...ter-of-intent-rudy-giuliani-moscow/index.html

Click the link to see copy of the letter of intent.

If it?s true this is unbelievable!!
 
eyephone said:
Irvinecommuter said:
morekaos said:
More nothing will come of it...don?t you sense a pattern?

IS THIS IT?: A TRUMP-HATER?S GUIDE TO MUELLER SKEPTICISM

We see the familiar cycle of hype, and there?s no use fighting it, but, once heart rates have slowed, the same old question remains: so what? Some of the news, such as a Guardian story that Manafort met three times with Julian Assange, seems to be based on nothing at all. But even the solid news turns out to be generally non-earth-shattering. As the journalist Aaron Mat? has been pointing out, we already knew the timeline of Cohen?s Moscow efforts, because BuzzFeed had already detailed them in May, painting a picture of a bumbling duo getting high on their own supply. (As for the latest revelations, did Sater and Cohen really think a president of Russia would move into a free $50 million penthouse provided by a U.S. presidential candidate? You have to wonder if they were hitting each other on the head with bricks.) Those who hope that Mueller reveals a shambolic operation with a lot of rascals engaged in sleazy and embarrassing behavior will be happy with the fruits of his labors. But those who hope for an unveiling of indictments linking Putin and Trump in a grand conspiracy have no more reason to celebrate than they did a week or a month ago.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12/a-trump-haters-guide-to-mueller-skepticism
Click to expand...

Wait...you are quoting from an article mocking Trumpsters to support your contention that the Mueller probe is nothing?
Click to expand...


?CNN article: Trump signed letter of intent for Trump Tower Moscow project despite Giuliani insisting he didn'

A newly obtained document shows President Donald Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Russia, despite his attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming on Sunday the document was never signed.

CNN's Chris Cuomo obtained a copy of the signed letter of intent that set the stage for negotiations for Trump condominiums, a hotel and commercial property in the heart of Moscow. The letter is dated October 28, 2015, and bears the President's signature.

When asked on Sunday about the letter, Giuliani incorrectly told CNN's Dana Bash that it had not been signed.

"It was a real estate project. There was a letter of intent to go forward, but no one signed it," Giuliani told Bash.?

Source:https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/po...ter-of-intent-rudy-giuliani-moscow/index.html

Click the link to see copy of the letter of intent.

If it?s true this is unbelievable!!
Click to expand...

Mueller should get Guilani under oath.
 
Irvinecommuter said:
eyephone said:
Irvinecommuter said:
morekaos said:
More nothing will come of it...don?t you sense a pattern?

IS THIS IT?: A TRUMP-HATER?S GUIDE TO MUELLER SKEPTICISM

We see the familiar cycle of hype, and there?s no use fighting it, but, once heart rates have slowed, the same old question remains: so what? Some of the news, such as a Guardian story that Manafort met three times with Julian Assange, seems to be based on nothing at all. But even the solid news turns out to be generally non-earth-shattering. As the journalist Aaron Mat? has been pointing out, we already knew the timeline of Cohen?s Moscow efforts, because BuzzFeed had already detailed them in May, painting a picture of a bumbling duo getting high on their own supply. (As for the latest revelations, did Sater and Cohen really think a president of Russia would move into a free $50 million penthouse provided by a U.S. presidential candidate? You have to wonder if they were hitting each other on the head with bricks.) Those who hope that Mueller reveals a shambolic operation with a lot of rascals engaged in sleazy and embarrassing behavior will be happy with the fruits of his labors. But those who hope for an unveiling of indictments linking Putin and Trump in a grand conspiracy have no more reason to celebrate than they did a week or a month ago.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/12/a-trump-haters-guide-to-mueller-skepticism
Click to expand...

Wait...you are quoting from an article mocking Trumpsters to support your contention that the Mueller probe is nothing?
Click to expand...


?CNN article: Trump signed letter of intent for Trump Tower Moscow project despite Giuliani insisting he didn'

A newly obtained document shows President Donald Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Russia, despite his attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming on Sunday the document was never signed.

CNN's Chris Cuomo obtained a copy of the signed letter of intent that set the stage for negotiations for Trump condominiums, a hotel and commercial property in the heart of Moscow. The letter is dated October 28, 2015, and bears the President's signature.

When asked on Sunday about the letter, Giuliani incorrectly told CNN's Dana Bash that it had not been signed.

"It was a real estate project. There was a letter of intent to go forward, but no one signed it," Giuliani told Bash.?

Source:https://www-m.cnn.com/2018/12/18/po...ter-of-intent-rudy-giuliani-moscow/index.html

Click the link to see copy of the letter of intent.

If it?s true this is unbelievable!!
Click to expand...

Mueller should get Guilani under oath.
Click to expand...

Their PR blitz is obviously not working...

The truth is coming out.
 
It's like Giulani and Trump do not understand the concept of video recording.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's lawyer on Wednesday said Trump had signed an October 2015 letter of intent to develop a real estate project in Russia during his presidential campaign, after earlier denying it in a weekend television interview.

Rudy Giuliani had told CNN on Sunday that "no one signed" the letter of intent to go forward with the Moscow project, although he acknowledged talks about the development had extended through November 2016 when Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Giuliani reversed course in comments to Reuters on Wednesday, however, after CNN reported late on Tuesday that it had obtained a copy of the Oct. 28, 2015 letter signed by Trump, who had announced his White House bid in June that year.

"If I said it, I made a mistake," Giuliani said of his previous denial about Trump having signed the letter.

"There's nothing wrong with his signing it. When he did it, he wasn't president yet."
Click to expand...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-signed-off-moscow-project-during-campaign-giuliani-183030251.html
 
Hey, I?m not complaining. I guess Trump thinks Rudy is doing a good job? Lol


Irvinecommuter said:
It's like Giulani and Trump do not understand the concept of video recording.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's lawyer on Wednesday said Trump had signed an October 2015 letter of intent to develop a real estate project in Russia during his presidential campaign, after earlier denying it in a weekend television interview.

Rudy Giuliani had told CNN on Sunday that "no one signed" the letter of intent to go forward with the Moscow project, although he acknowledged talks about the development had extended through November 2016 when Trump won the U.S. presidential election.

Giuliani reversed course in comments to Reuters on Wednesday, however, after CNN reported late on Tuesday that it had obtained a copy of the Oct. 28, 2015 letter signed by Trump, who had announced his White House bid in June that year.

"If I said it, I made a mistake," Giuliani said of his previous denial about Trump having signed the letter.

"There's nothing wrong with his signing it. When he did it, he wasn't president yet."
Click to expand...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-signed-off-moscow-project-during-campaign-giuliani-183030251.html
Click to expand...
 
C?mon, 23 armed to the teethe, flak vest wearing swat officers at 6 in the morning with CNN in tow for one old guy in a silk bath robe to charge him with alleged lies? Give me a break!  As I have said, it?s all just a big show.
 
morekaos said:
C?mon, 23 armed to the teethe, flak vest wearing swat officers at 6 in the morning with CNN in tow for one old guy in a silk bath robe to charge him with alleged lies? Give me a break!  As I have said, it?s all just a big show.
Click to expand...

Yeah...that's what we should be focusing on. 
 
morekaos said:
C?mon, 23 armed to the teethe, flak vest wearing swat officers at 6 in the morning with CNN in tow for one old guy in a silk bath robe to charge him with alleged lies? Give me a break!  As I have said, it?s all just a big show.
Click to expand...
Reminds me of the time they sent an army of BATF agents with an army of news reporters with armored vehicles and news helicopters to arrest David Koresh at this compound when they could have just picked him up in front of the local Wal Mart where he shops every week. Had the feds just simply arrested Koresh on the street, the compound would not have burned down with all the kids inside. But then, a simple arrest would not have been very theatrical.
 
Happiness said:
morekaos said:
C?mon, 23 armed to the teethe, flak vest wearing swat officers at 6 in the morning with CNN in tow for one old guy in a silk bath robe to charge him with alleged lies? Give me a break!  As I have said, it?s all just a big show.
Click to expand...
Reminds me of the time they sent an army of BATF agents with an army of news reporters with armored vehicles and news helicopters to arrest David Koresh at this compound when they could have just picked him up in front of the local Wal Mart where he shops every week. Had the feds just simply arrested Koresh on the street, the compound would not have burned down with all the kids inside. But then, a simple arrest would not have been very theatrical.
Click to expand...

Didn?t your beloved president in July 2017 urge the Long Island police to bang the heads of arrested suspects against car doors ?  At least the FBI spared roger stone a head concussion as recommended by Trump .
 
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