The Great Crash 10 Years Later

[Irvinecommuter]

I have officially shorted the S&P 2 weeks ago. Purchased SH and gonna hold on for the ride down.

Very good move... it wont be the slaughter of 07, but there is money to be made now on the shorts.

Funny thing is everyone I talk to still thinks we have 1-2 years of a bull market to go. I don't believe it. My company does business with a lot of top tier OEM's across all industries. Business has completely dried up on the commercial front. Especially that big "fruit" company (We are not allowed to use their name). Aerospace/Defense work is still strong but that is only because Defense budget has expanded so much and Tier 1 OEM's are trying to get it while the business is still there.

Housing Market Softness + Inflation + Rising Rates + Tarrifs + Trade Wars + Crazy President + Corporate Debt + .... = Strong Recession

I guess I must be crazy. 10 year bull run has to eventually end. Sorry, not trying to be schadenfreude but expressing my opinion.

Talking heads on CNBC were discussing chip companies being hurt by a downturn in data center business...that is a definitely a red flag.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

Turmoil is good. Buy when it goes on sale. Although, there are more down to comes.

 

[eyephone]

I have officially shorted the S&P 2 weeks ago. Purchased SH and gonna hold on for the ride down.

Very good move... it wont be the slaughter of 07, but there is money to be made now on the shorts.

Funny thing is everyone I talk to still thinks we have 1-2 years of a bull market to go. I don't believe it. My company does business with a lot of top tier OEM's across all industries. Business has completely dried up on the commercial front. Especially that big "fruit" company (We are not allowed to use their name). Aerospace/Defense work is still strong but that is only because Defense budget has expanded so much and Tier 1 OEM's are trying to get it while the business is still there.

Housing Market Softness + Inflation + Rising Rates + Tarrifs + Trade Wars + Crazy President + Corporate Debt + .... = Strong Recession

I guess I must be crazy. 10 year bull run has to eventually end. Sorry, not trying to be schadenfreude but expressing my opinion.

Talking heads on CNBC were discussing chip companies being hurt by a downturn in data center business...that is a definitely a red flag.

How the Crypto Collapse is Hurting Nvidia
https://www.investopedia.com/news/how-crypto-collapse-hurting-nvidia/

 

[fortune11]

Do a simple test

What were you reading and thinking back in December 2015 ? January 2016

Were you thinking the cycle has gone on for 8 years , so it has to end ? Did it end back then ?

Or is 10 years like a nice round number so it has to end now ?

Good news comes together and so does bad news (misery loves company)

Lot of things you read the talking heads say right now could have applied to any point in time in the past 2 years .

Thing is , they didn?t have a receptive audience back then since everyone was making money and now they are not .

Trump is  crazy but there is only so much damage he he can do . The federal reserve is doing more damage now by singlehandedly leading us into an asset price collapse. Are people aware how much higher interest rates are in the US compared to rest of the developed world ?

If they are smart they will pause after hiking in December . If they continue with their plan for 3-4  0.25 percent each hikes next year , we could be looking at a fed induced recession

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Do a simple test

What were you reading and thinking back in December 2015 ? January 2016

Were you thinking the cycle has gone on for 8 years , so it has to end ? Did it end back then ?

Or is 10 years like a nice round number so it has to end now ?

Good news comes together and so does bad news (misery loves company)

Lot of things you read the talking heads say right now could have applied to any point in time in the past 2 years .

Thing is , they didn?t have a receptive audience back then since everyone was making money and now they are not .

Trump is  crazy but there is only so much damage he he can do . The federal reserve is doing more damage now by singlehandedly leading us into an asset price collapse. Are people aware how much higher interest rates are in the US compared to rest of the developed world ?

If they are smart they will pause after hiking in December . If they continue with their plan for 3-4  0.25 percent each hikes next year , we could be looking at a fed induced recession

I think he can do a lot more damage...Michael Lewis said in an interview that Trump could elect to default on Treasury Bonds because he really like to use BKs and defaults as leverage position.  Imagine a world where T-Bills are no longer 100% reliable.

 

[Kings]

Do a simple test

What were you reading and thinking back in December 2015 ? January 2016

Were you thinking the cycle has gone on for 8 years , so it has to end ? Did it end back then ?

Or is 10 years like a nice round number so it has to end now ?

Good news comes together and so does bad news (misery loves company)

Lot of things you read the talking heads say right now could have applied to any point in time in the past 2 years .

Thing is , they didn?t have a receptive audience back then since everyone was making money and now they are not .

Trump is  crazy but there is only so much damage he he can do . The federal reserve is doing more damage now by singlehandedly leading us into an asset price collapse. Are people aware how much higher interest rates are in the US compared to rest of the developed world ?

If they are smart they will pause after hiking in December . If they continue with their plan for 3-4  0.25 percent each hikes next year , we could be looking at a fed induced recession

I think he can do a lot more damage...Michael Lewis said in an interview that Trump could elect to default on Treasury Bonds because he really like to use BKs and defaults as leverage position.  Imagine a world where T-Bills are no longer 100% reliable.

sounds like fear mongering to me.  but after all, a trump-induced recession sounds much better than a fed-induced recession