[quote author="skek" date=1226047394][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1226045235]The electorate will not forget this any time soon. I will not forget this anytime soon.</blockquote>
In short, yes you will. Maybe not you, specifically, but the country will. Or more accurately, it won't take long for the Republicans to regain their standing in the country, if they get their house in order.
It's funny, you start <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/3605/">one thread</a> to compare the hysteria of Democrats when Reagan was elected to the hysteria of Republicans now that Obama has been elected. In that thread you wisely concluded "The American populace is fickle when it comes to its political leaders. If peoples lives improve, they will vote incumbents back into office; if their lives do not improve, they will vote them out."
Yet in this thread you are suggesting the death of conservatism and predicting that the GOP will wander in the wilderness for a generation. I think you were right the first time.
When Bush had a solidly Republican majority in both houses, people were talking about the Republicans having a permanent majority, having conquered the electoral map. Now, less than a decade later, they are saying the opposite. Yet, these same two parties have played football between the 40 yard lines since the 1850s. Nothing has changed. The Democrats get their turn to govern. They will make mistakes. The public will become disillusioned. Meanwhile, the Republicans will regroup and refine their message. They will seize on new issues that will pry off swing voters. The cycle will repeat.
Nearly every mid-term election goes against the party that controls the White House. I suspect 2010 will be no different. What if by 2010 we are in the midst of a severe two year recession? What if some of the very economic conditions that you have predicted come to pass? Interest rates may be in double digits. Wages may be stagnant. Taxes are high. Companies and municipalities filing bankruptcy. Middle class homeowners facing foreclosure because their Option ARMs are resetting. Will those folks vote the incumbents back into office? There are no long memories in politics.
On an unrelated matter, I would also submit to you that conservatism as a philosophy is still dominant in America. The Democrats engineered their takeover in 2006 by running extremely conservative candidates with conservative values in purple districts -- Jim Webb, Bob Casey and Heath Shuler, for example. 2008 had <a href="http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-house1-2008nov01,0,4256564.story">similar examples</a>. Listen also to the political rhetoric. When Obama talks about government spending, he calls it investment. When he talks about protectionist trade policies, he calls it "fair trade." When he accidentally says he wants to redistribute the wealth, he spends a week disowning a comment that many liberals view as a positive policy goal. Conservative ballot propositions fared very well across the country in this election, despite McCain's defeat. And lastly, in an election that you claim signals the death knell of conservatism, in the <a href="http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/votes.html">five battleground states</a> that determined the election, Obama did no better than 51%. Do you think that hatred of George W. Bush and the economic crisis was worth 2% to Obama? Can you guarantee that those headwinds will be blowing again in 2012?
The fact is, as Nude implied, Republicans lost, conservatism didn't. Heads need to roll within the GOP in order for us to be competitive in 2010. But conservatism is alive and well, and I look forward to a new generation of Republican leadership who will reclaim the Party and reinvigorate a commitment to the core principles abandoned by the current leadership.</blockquote>
When I was saying in the other thread that the electorate is fickle, I was pointing out that <em>when the other party screws up, and when they are blamed for it</em>, we will throw out incumbents. The American people will remember the mistakes of a political party for 20 years or more and hold them accountable,<em> unless the party in power makes a series of major mistakes</em>. When the Democrats took over Congress in 1954, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress">they were in power for 40 years</a> (except for the Senate from 1981-1987). They became corrupt, and they lost sight of their ideals as well (Yes, Democrats have ideals too). They were thrown out of power, and if Bush and the Republicans who took over had not screwed up so bad, the Democrats would still be out of power. The electorate is fickle, but they need a reason to change. Absent a reason, the opposition party may have great ideas, but they will not obtain power (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_stagnation_in_the_United_States">incumbents are reelected more than 90% of the time</a>). In fact, the party in power is not above usurping the ideas of the opposition party and claiming them as their own (As you noted that Democrats have embraced certain conservative ideals).
You have asserted that conservatism is still the dominant philosophy in America. I suppose it depends on how you define it, but this is where I disagree. It <em>was </em>the dominant philosophy in America. It is not anymore. Watch the political discourse in the country change when the new Congress and President takes office. It will happen. The people in power do not embrace many conservative ideals. With the Bush Administration and the Republican Congress, the political discourse was dominated by people with the same conservative philosophical underpinnings (even though they abandoned their beliefs). The new people in power are not conservatives. They will not think, reason or talk like conservatives. Does this mean they will embrace old-style Liberalism? I doubt it. The thread is not about the resurgence of Liberalism, it is about the death of Conservatism. The movement will not die, but its power to shape policy and dominate political discourse is over for the time being.
As for the Republicans, they will likely make gains in the next series of elections. I believe Democratic power is at its zenith with this President and Congress. Their majorities are huge, and the large electoral margin is going to give Obama plenty of political clout. Their power will decline from here, but they are <em>very </em>powerful right now. Their majorities are practically unassailable -- at least until they screw up. They will not get blamed for the current economic mess any more than Reagan was blamed in 1982. With such overwhelming majorities, the political posturing and compromises in Washington will not be between Democrats and Republicans, it will be between various factions within the Democratic party. The Republicans in the Senate have some power with their weak filibuster margin, but the Republicans in the House don't even need to show up.
Is any of this permanent? Of course not, but it is my opinion that unless or until the Democrats really screw up, they will be in power for the foreseeable future. Their power will weaken over time, and eventually the Republicans will get another chance. Hopefully, next time they will not blow it.
