T-minus ? until Countrywide goes under.. . .

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p>Here is the link for tomorrow mornings conference call. <a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/9/85709.html">http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/9/85709.html</a> Enjoy the Tan Man show.</p>
 
<p>So you post a loss of over a Billion dollars. And the stock goes up ? Countrywide has missed all its predictions lately. But they can predict the end of the problems for the housing and mortgage markets ? Yeah sure they can. Let`s see if the stock closes up for the day. I just dont think the market is that gullable to buy into this obvious canned PR BS longterm. </p>
 
<p><a href="http://about.countrywide.com/presentations/docs/3Q07%20Earnings%20slides%20-%20FINAL%2010-26-07.pdf">http://about.countrywide.com/presentations/docs/3Q07%20Earnings%20slides%20-%20FINAL%2010-26-07.pdf</a></p>

<p>Look at page 18, they say the market will turnaround in mid-09 or early-10.</p>

<p>Brealiving, you said:</p>

<p>"Analysts are shooting for a loss of $600 million this quarter.</p>

<p>In comparison, last quarter they earned $480M. A swing of a $1billion".</p>

<p>On page 13, you see they lost $1,201M, so that's a $1.686B swing!</p>
 
<p>jwbrown,</p>

<p>I took a look at those CFC REO's....and scrolled down to the bottom of the first page and was shocked to find 188 more pages...wow.</p>

<p>On a side note, CFC holds my mtg note and I've been getting at least 2 pieces of mail a week from them. In the letters it spells out that they have set aside a special refinance program and that they've got date and time set aside just for me to call and speak to my own assigned refinance specialist ! (I feel so special) Apparently, they don't realize that I have a 6% 30 yr fixed. What a waste of money to be mailing these letters out blindly. </p>
 
<p><em>"Apparently, they don't realize that I have a 6% 30 yr fixed. What a waste of money to be mailing these letters out blindly. "</em></p>

<p>Why don't you call and try to re-negotiate anyway? </p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
Unbelieveable. I am going to my boss and say "I know I lost you some money this year but I am going to make some in December and in 2008, can I have 15% raise?"
 
<p>There was supposedly a glitch and it listed all the REOs in the database, whether or not they were current.





<a href="http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/a-huge-spike-in.html">http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland/2007/10/a-huge-spike-in.html</a>





The response from Countrywide is in the comments</p>
 
<p><em>"What a waste of money to be mailing these letters out blindly."</em></p>

<p>Because they are in the business of making loans. That is how they make their money. Their altruistic refinance program is actually just advertising. Sweet, huh?</p>
 
<p>Jim Cramer at Realmoney.com says:</p>

<p>You can't rally in this environment for more than a couple days, and in the case of AIG I now believe that Hank Greenberg, the founder, is selling the same way that Angelo Mozillo relentlessly sold. Because it is smart to!) </p>

<p>From now on, I am presuming that the mortgage insurers will go under. I am presuming bankruptcy for <strong>Countrywide Financial</strong> (<a href="http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/quote/CFC">CFC</a> - <a href="http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/rmfind/results.html?tkr=CFC">commentary</a> - <a href="http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/cramertake?tkr=CFC&site=rmy">Cramer's Take</a> - <a href="http://ratings.thestreet.com/tools/basic/ratings-rm.html?tkr=1&s=CFC">Rating</a>). I am also presuming that <strong>Washington Mutual</strong> (<a href="http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/quote/WM">WM</a> - <a href="http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/rmfind/results.html?tkr=WM">commentary</a> - <a href="http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/cramertake?tkr=WM&site=rmy">Cramer's Take</a> - <a href="http://ratings.thestreet.com/tools/basic/ratings-rm.html?tkr=1&s=WM">Rating</a>) will fail. </p>

<p>I believe you will have a chance into the coming short squeeze to get out of these, but I would start selling them now into the upswing caused by Countrywide saying that from now on, things will be good and that it will make money and by Merrill's move to basically put itself up for sale. </p>
 
<p>I am so shocked at the market reaction to Countrywide and I am almost speechless (I did say almost ) In a post-Enron/Worldcom business world, people still believe that everyone is telling the truth. It is utterly ridculous!!! </p>

<p>Fundamentals? What fundamentals? Historically large year over year drop in sale, drop in prices, and huge inventories combined with the oncoming ARM and option loan resets are negated by Orange Man's Scarlet O'Hara impersonation. AT the same time, our economy is getting flushed down the toilet just so we can prop up irresponsible Wall Street brokers, greedy mortgage companies, shortsighted home builders, and opportunistic politicians. Oil is heading to $100 and the U.S. dollar is going to have the monopoly guy on it pretty soon.</p>

<p>Meanwhile, I did everything I am supposed to as a responsible person and yet still cannot buy a house and have a huge student loan. That seems fair to me. I am so livid right (if you guys could not tell already).</p>

<p>Live blog/summary of the CFC call: <a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/10/26/live-blogging-the-countrywide-call/">blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2007/10/26/live-blogging-the-countrywide-call/</a></p>

<p>Great article by Diane Olick of CNBC: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21491555">www.cnbc.com/id/21491555</a></p>

<p>To lighten it up a little, guess who made the following statements. Kenneth Lay or Tan Man.</p>

<p>1) "My personal belief is that [my company's] stock is an incredible bargain at current prices, and we will look back a couple of years from now and see the great opportunity that we currently have."</p>

<p>2) "...at this time I think we're well positioned for a very strong fourth quarter.”</p>

<p>3) "I am confident that this review will demonstrate that...complied with all protocols,” </p>

<p>4) "Responding to the SEC offers us an additional opportunity to achieve this same goal for investors, and...will cooperate fully. We will also make every appropriate public disclosure during the course of the SEC's investigation."</p>

<p>5) "We continue to be bullish about the longterm prospects of both [the Company] and our industry"</p>

<p>6) "will cooperate fully with the SEC and look forward to the opportunity to put any concern about these transactions to rest.”</p>

<p>7) "We believe the steps which we have taken position the company with the necessary capital and liquidity for our operating and growth needs, and will allow us to benefit from opportunities..." </p>

<p>source: various news articles and <a href="http://thinkexist.com/quotes/kenneth_lay/2.html">thinkexist.com/quotes/kenneth_lay/2.html</a></p>

<p> </p>

<p>Answer: Lay (1, 2, 4, and 6); Mozilo (3, 5, 7)</p>
 
<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/21491555">Diana Olick's take on the tan man</a>.





I am a bit disappointed in this article (it's not a real blog if you can't leave comments) since they didn't research in the right places for the loan mods. They can and have access to the prospectus for every public MBS deal Countryfried has done. In those prospectuses are the details of how the loan mods will work and how much of a percentage if any of the deal that can be modified. It will also spell out in clear detail that as an investor you inherit the risk of such loan mod. Yes the prospectuses are huge 200-500 pages but they have a table of contents and you can skip right to the section of the loan mods. Lazy MSM.





{rant over}
 
Irvine Commuter--



Oh, you have student loans!!! In addition to everything else.



As I've said before me and the hub are OLD. My mom, who had saved a bit and inherited some money paid for my college. No loans. I went to nite law school and worked as a secy in the day, and got a tuition remission (they don't do this any more). Also a partial remission for the hub, who meanwhile had managed to work his way all the way thru Johns Hopkins University BA and Ph D with NO loans. Our parents were NOT rich.



Tuition was low enuf that it could actually be paid.



Our daughter got all the way thru college with no loans and then borrowed to get her masters in architecture from MIT.



My son owes 2 grand for his batchelors. No biggie. We had bought the Florida pre paid tuitition thing and he went in the army and got help there. This, of course, can no longer be recommended.



There is no reason that I can see why the price of college education has gone up so much, including with schools that have enuf endowment money to not require any tuition payments at all. They are charging. . .because they can.



Why at a time when people had a lot less money was it possible to work one's way thru school, and now it's not even possible?



This is one more rip off; and I want to know why institutions of higher learning have turned to vultures?



I hope that you never, ever contribute to the alumnae fund.



And, don't worry, you will be able to buy a house soon. If you want to.
 
So, if Orangzillo truly thinks that Countrywide will turn around and have earnings next quarter, he is buying CFC stock, right?
 
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