Stock picks

  • Thread starter Thread starter jmoney74
  • Start date Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Good excuse... talks trash about Irvine but won't disclose yours as a comparison because all your analysis collapses. Vacuum comparisons are worthless.

At least morekaos can be objective when it comes to Long Beach.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Good excuse... talks trash about Irvine but won't disclose yours as a comparison because all your analysis collapses. Vacuum comparisons are worthless.

At least morekaos can be objective when it comes to Long Beach.
Click to expand...
No, he can't because he lives there. I don't live in Irvine so I can be objective about it... something that drives you nuts.
 
Maybe that's your issue, you don't know how to be objective. People can be, morekaos is as he has called out the pros/cons of Long Beach. You can't be objective because you only see one side of it, you have been so wrong about price and trends in Irvine but don't want to admit it. You may need to look up the definition of objectivity (like insurrection and armed).

Also, you know what is really creepy? Someone who is so obsessed on trashing a city he has no plans to live in. And is active on a forum about that city. At least Larry rented and bought in Irvine. Do you post on TalkArizona too? :)
 
irvinehomeowner said:
Also, you know what is really creepy? Someone who is so obsessed on trashing a city he has no plans to live in. And is active on a forum about that city. At least Larry rented and bought in Irvine. Do you post on TalkArizona too? :)
Click to expand...
And yet you've trashed many cities in your time here on TI... And you want me to say where I live so you can trash my city!
 
I was thinking of the increased insurance cost everyone is experiencing at the moment.
Do you think these higher insurance premiums is driving the stock market?

Insurance companies are getting record high premiums lately and they have to put it somewhere...
I had heard GEICO made Buffet a lot of money because he invested the cash from premiums.
 
zubs said:
I was thinking of the increased insurance cost everyone is experiencing at the moment.
Do you think these higher insurance premiums is driving the stock market?

Insurance companies are getting record high premiums lately and they have to put it somewhere...
I had heard GEICO made Buffet a lot of money because he invested the cash from premiums.
Click to expand...

Buffett has a long and profitable relationship with GEICO. But before Buffett there was Benjamin Graham, who bought 50% of GEICO in 1948 for $712,000. Graham became the chairman of GEICO and by 1972, the investment had grown to $400 million in value. Buffett was rejected by Harvard and opted to attend Columbia University, where he studied under Benjamin Graham. Graham's impact on young Buffett was life-long, and Buffett would eventually buy out GEICO in 1995.

I own shares of Berkshire Hathaway and Fidelity Contra Fund, but I keep those positions to about 1:2 ratio to index funds (example, $100K BRK-B: $200K S&P 500 Index). I have concerns about post-Buffett Berkshire Hathaway and Post-Danoff Contra fund. I think the initial successors like Greg Abel will do a decent job, but going further down the road, well, look at Magellan Fund post-Peter Lynch.
 
Last edited:
LL is mistaken once again. I only trash Tustin Legacy where the Jamboree freeway and radioactive limes live.

We came very close to purchasing in Tustin.

And no one in the whole TI community has trashed any city as much as LL has trashed Irvine.

You know what that's called? Smelly jelly!!!
 
momopi said:
Why does the US government subsidize the car industry?

When you count tax revenue from activities related to car industry - sales, parts, service, worker's paychecks (9.6 million jobs), company revenue, etc., the industry contributes >$110 billion to State and >$126 billion to Federal tax revenue. The auto industry also generates many billions in FDI, R&D expenditure, and contributes to gasoline tax revenue. The State and Federal subsidies given to the auto industry is a fraction of the tax revenue collected.

Even in Singapore, where they have to limit number of cars on the road, the government charges $100,000 (USD) for 10-year COE (certificate to permit car ownership). So the cost of a Toyota Camry is OMV (car) + ARF (license) + COE = $150,000+. Taxes from car license and COE generates $5.4 billion USD or 7% of Singapore's government revenue. Do they give subsidies (rebates) for Vehicle Electrification efforts? Absolutely! Up to $29,600 USD ($40,000 SGD) for a Tesla, because they'll make the money right back in taxes.

Click to expand...
This is very interesting and informative. Thanks for the details.
 
B2FiNiTY said:
here we are again, ATHs.

Looking back, one of the best decisions I made was continually buy VOO since 2022. Sure I might have missed out on more gains, but it's been much more stress free.
Click to expand...

S&P 500 index is one of the best investment choices with historical returns of 10.2% annually:
investor.vanguard.com

Investment portfolios: Asset allocation models | Vanguard

Your investment portfolio allocation should align with your financial goals. Learn how to allocate investments in your portfolio.
investor.vanguard.com investor.vanguard.com

With Buffett's 90/10 model portfolio for his spouse, the above chart shows historical returns of 9.9% (with dividends reinvested) which is still very good.
 
Last edited:
B2FiNiTY said:
here we are again, ATHs.

Looking back, one of the best decisions I made was continually buy VOO since 2022. Sure I might have missed out on more gains, but it's been much more stress free.
Click to expand...
Hard to feel FOMO when you see the increasingly lower probabilities of active fund managers outperforming indexes the longer the time horizon. It’s like trying to find a needle in the haystack.

Index Fund Advisors, Inc. (IFA.COM)

www.ifa.com www.ifa.com
 
There are exceptional fund managers who have consistently out-performed the S&P 500, but I believe index fund should be your core holdings.

Peter Lynch managed the Fidelity Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990, earning average returns of 29.2% before his retirement at age 46.

William Danoff managed the Fidelity Contrafund since 1990, and has out-performed the S&P 500 by 2.57% average annually. I own the Contrafund.

There are others like Joel Tillinghast, Sonu Kalra, John Roth, etc. who have also performed well. Investing in funds managed by star managers carry the risk of what happens after the manager retires.


It's also possible to beat the S&P 500 by managing your own portfolio via monthly ETF rotation strategy, but due to tax liability this is more suitable for tax deferred accounts. See "round robin" here:

TuringTrader’s Round Robin – TuringTrader.com

www.turingtrader.com www.turingtrader.com

^^ You can sign up for 14 day free access with just an email address and view the details. Not an endorsement of their products and services, for educational purpose only.
 
Last edited:
momopi said:
It's also possible to beat the S&P 500 by managing your own portfolio via monthly ETF rotation strategy, but due to tax liability this is more suitable for tax deferred accounts. See "round robin" here:

TuringTrader’s Round Robin – TuringTrader.com

www.turingtrader.com www.turingtrader.com

^^ You can sign up for 14 day free access with just an email address and view the details. Not an endorsement of their products and services, for educational purpose only.
Click to expand...
Their system is based on Scott Juds' Sector Surfer strategies, which is what I use to manage my portfolios.

SectorSurfer: Sector Rotation Investment Strategies

SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall Street by putting the high performance momentum algorithms in your hands. Its True Sector Rotation algorithm holds only the trend leader during bull markets, and its StormGuard algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear markets.
www.sumgrowth.com www.sumgrowth.com
 
Liar Loan said:
Their system is based on Scott Juds' Sector Surfer strategies, which is what I use to manage my portfolios.

SectorSurfer: Sector Rotation Investment Strategies

SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall Street by putting the high performance momentum algorithms in your hands. Its True Sector Rotation algorithm holds only the trend leader during bull markets, and its StormGuard algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear markets.
www.sumgrowth.com www.sumgrowth.com
Click to expand...

^^^ this is actually a very good price. You pay just $10/month each for the portfolio model that you use, and still track models that you’re interested in via sandbox.

Currently eyeing “fidelity simple sectors”.
 
Not sure if anyone looks at options flow data, but here’s the most interesting lopsided unusual options contract volume activity I’ve seen on any ticker in months, and of course it had to do with $GME and RoaringKitty. Based on options activity alone, there were signs all last month that something big was brewing even if you tuned out social media and fintwit world.

On May 22, $46+ mil worth of premium were traded on $GME for 20 strike call options expiring June 21. You can see they were skewed 76% towards the ask side on that particular day. The graph revealed several huge spikes in volume, ranging from about $4 mil to $8 mil, on those particular contracts on May 22. so likely a whale, big time trader, hedge fund, or institution. Open interest on the same contracts consistently increased in the mid-thousands each day over the next 7 trading days despite GME stock price dropping on some of those days, with most of the days leaning towards the ask side with this particular contract’s activity. If leaning to ask-side, they could be buying to open contracts or buying to close. Or it could pan out to be part od some complex/multileg options hedge. Lo and behold, massive move yesterday with the ticker opening about 89% up from prior day before selling off to just up 21%. Anyone who entered the prior week would have been green regardless of they sold at any point yesterday. Just a fun anecdote and example, not to say this happens every time, but sure is entertaining to watch these events unfold.

IMG_9529.jpeg
IMG_9528.jpeg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top