Stock Market Day-Trading Discussion Thread

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[quote author="skek" date=1236843173]By the way, you've always cautioned about having a pre-determined exit point. Where's your exit point with BAC? It would be awfully hard to hang in there if your $40k was up to $500k, much less as it approached $2.4M.</blockquote>


I never said I put in 40k ;) But your point is valid...I've been studying resistance points, daily volatility, volume and everything else the past 2 days on BAC and continue to do so. I want to know big potential resistance points as to where it can possibly break down.



To answer your question...I have no clue...The amount of money that can possibly be generated through this is enormous and I honestly don't know when to pull the plug. My original thought was to just let both my March and April ride through expiration and have it be what it may, but now I'm thinking to dump it all on any big move. Such as if we gap from 5-6 a share to 10-12, I'm out. However, if the market is still in a rally mode, my thoughts can change.



Another thought is if we gap that high, I would sell 12 or 15 strike calls against my position virtually locking in a bulk of the gains. But, no clue. I can't sleep honestly without my mind constanly racing over scenarios. I'm not worried about losing it at all, no stress there, just pondering how to handle a move like that. I probably will do a combination of several strategies.



For now, I'll just let the market tell me whats going on and give me hints. But in all honesty, mentally I geared myself that this "gamble" is a total loss the moment I bought. And I didn't just wake up one day and decide to do this. I've thought about it for couple of weeks before I even started accumulating calls. So...it was a big decision, but there are way too many factors out there such as M2M, uptick rule, BofA releasing earnings in mid April, the market has been beating over and over and is a wound up springed coil ready to burst, and even Dr. Doom is saying it's too risky to be on the shrot side, and that we will probably enter a bear market rally. I other words, I like my odds.



What would you do?
 
Jobless claims data tomorrow morning and even more importantly retail sale figures. Should be an interesting day.

In all honesty though, we need a pull back. I would rather have it pull back a bit, shake out the weak hands, and push for new highs. Thats the ideal scenario, vs. just shooting right up.
 
wow, the bears got taken to the woodshed today.



check out FAZ... 105 to 40 in less than twenty trading hours!



to rock around that's right on time it's tricky...
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236920099]Nice call on BAC Mr. BV. I picked up 40 April $5 calls for BAC and picked up 20 March $17 calls on SSO earlier this morning.</blockquote>


Just couple of weeks ago Cramer finally switched to a bear...so I switched to being a bull...

Now he flips back to a bull, sigh...time to sell EVeRyThiNg!



Maybe he's finally getting intelligent. It takes him quite a bit. Best recommendation ever from him was telling people to buy Bear Sterms a WEEK before the collapse. Go Go Cramer! You can see why I'm nervous holding BAC especially since he recommended it.
 
BTW check out DA VOLUMZ on BAC!



average is 297K...



last three days, 420K, 452K, and today 544k! CHA-CHING!



That means that there has been an extra 500K+ shares picked up.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236922733]So, four days in a row or will we see some profit taking tomorrow?</blockquote>


I hope so man. Even though I enjoy watching my account swell up like a fat cow ready for steak, I don't find it healthy. I want some pull back to consolidate, and I think we will.

If BAC pops tomorrow again, I will likely buy some puts and try to make some cash on a pull back. However, this rally is here to stay in my opinion.

But some pull back is needed to shake out some weak hands and profit takers.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225345574]Ok, going into tomorrow I have the following options...



1 DOW 92 Nov Put

1 S&P 97 Nov Put

2 QQQQ 35 Dec Puts



I'm hoping for a nasty GDP number and another limit down on futures (crossing fingers).</blockquote>


You must have done well on these trades. Good job.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1236825667][quote author="BlackVault CM" date=1236822346][quote author="skek" date=1236822233]BAC just bounced up about $0.10 in a sec... It's resilient today.



Interesting to watch, that's for sure.</blockquote>


It's extremelly fascinating. I can watch it forever. I always learn something new. Watching daily price fluctuations in the stock market allows you to understand the psychological behavior of it all. That is all it is...psychology.



And yes...very resilliant. I bet they know something is coming...something big. So I'm almost certain they are just accumulating from people that got "spooked" and sold them their shares. Thats why I'm not giving them mine...I'd rather them go to 0.



I know how they play. Once they have enough...they will let the bird fly free.</blockquote>
Wouldn't a good forward indicator of that be looking at the option volume as a percentage of open interest? I've noticed that stocks that have had huge call or put volumes typically move in those directions. Maybe they try to juice their returns by picking up calls or puts and then moving the stock whichever way they want it to go based upon their option position.</blockquote>


If you watch the Najarian brothers on Fast Money they talk about this ever day. They are more right then wrong on options trends. Jon even twitters about some of this real time.
 
[quote author="skek" date=1236922733]So, four days in a row or will we see some profit taking tomorrow?</blockquote>


Since the Nov meltdown we've had two 20% bear market rallies. We're around 14% now. I think we'll see another moderate up day before we test the lows then fall back below 6000. Cramer called 5300 the bottom before he went all bull balls on us. He right about some things, and I think that 5300 might be it, but we're certainly not out of the woods. He changes his views faster than Obama.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1236945835][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1225345574]Ok, going into tomorrow I have the following options...



1 DOW 92 Nov Put

1 S&P 97 Nov Put

2 QQQQ 35 Dec Puts



I'm hoping for a nasty GDP number and another limit down on futures (crossing fingers).</blockquote>


You must have done well on these trades. Good job.</blockquote>
I did on those trades, just wish I had traded 10x the puts. haha
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1236946381][quote author="skek" date=1236922733]So, four days in a row or will we see some profit taking tomorrow?</blockquote>


Since the Nov meltdown we've had two 20% bear market rallies. We're around 14% now. I think we'll see another moderate up day before we test the lows then fall back below 6000. Cramer called 5300 the bottom before he went all bull balls on us. He right about some things, and I think that 5300 might be it, but we're certainly not out of the woods. He changes his views faster than Obama.</blockquote>


If we go back down to retest new lows after only one more moderate up day, my BAC trade is worthless.

I don't know the future, always fun to speculate, but I disagree. We will pull back, I expect it, and we need it. (for health reasons)



However based on current data we have, the momentum is way too strong to just have one more moderate day up. As of tonight, with what I know, my guess is 7,800 first, before and if we re-test new lows.



This is just my short term perspective and is subject to change based on new economic information.
 
To be more exact after looking at the charts, I would say 7,950 as a major resistance before we go back down. If we penetrate that...we can push to 8,500 - 9,000.

But first, I would like to see a pull back to the 6,900-7,000 level and consolidate for a couple of days before we push 7,400 levels.



Don't get me wrong...economy isn't healthy and most likely we will re-test new lows. However, don't underestemate the power of a bear market rally. It's merciless.
 
I am wondering if we will get any pull back tomorrow. Earlier, just after the after-market closed, the futures showed a bit of downward movement, now they show flat. I know, futures don't mean squat, just go look at any other thread I have posted about them before the market opens, but I feel this thing has some serious legs. I think tomorrow will go up, or at worst be flat. If it does, then this bear market rally will stick around for awhile. I agree, the 7800-8000 level is the resistance point to watch for, we break through that... then the bulls will have a field day. If there is a fight at this level, watch for the bears to come back with vengeance. Anyway, we should also compare the support and resistance levels of the S&P, because it has been showing the true break-throughs, IMO.



BTW, my trade on SSO went through. I got it at $0.50, and I put a limit order to sell at $0.80. I agree with BV, you must be watching it at all times, otherwise limit orders are crap. I have converted. But, I couldn't watch it, so I put the limit order on. Had I watched it, I would have seen it go to $1.00 plus. You can say hind-sight, but I watch a lot of the same things BV watches, and this thing would have climbed. I can't tell you how much I appreciate his posts updating us on the technicals, and I wish he had the time to post more often on this thread as he sees them. I didn't catch the stochastics until he pointed them out, so two eyes are better than one, and more eyes would even be better.
 
Thanks Graph, that was nice.



I watched the futures too, they have narrowed. This is what scares me is that we continue to go up, which is fine, but less healthy for a strong rally. But you never know, history doesn't always have to repeat itself.



BTW, anybody watching Cramer and Jon Stewart? It's amazing, he looks scared and nervous. No firepower. He look pathetic. Hillarious.
 
Haven't watched the Cramer debacle yet, TIVO FTW.



Futures are showing more upside right now. If that holds for tomorrow, er today... then this could be a serious bear market rally. I may be buying more SSO calls, but at higher strikes. We will see. History may be broken here, watch out. I could be wrong, and just be talking out my bullish run a$$, but if this holds the legs are strong, and strong legs are not to be messed with, but they are meant to followed.
 
I had to lock in some gains for BAC. Wrote March 6 calls for .61 cents against my shares, (45 cent time premium, with only a week left to hold). Left my calls riding...
 
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