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<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy">Obama outlines plan to create 2.5 Million jobs.</a>



Market popped +500 on Obamas treasury news pick. In a normal market news like that wouldn't create that much buzz, but since people are looking for any ounce of direction in this country, markets go crazy. People already know our economy is falling apart, that is pretty much priced in the market. What drives further drops is "uncertanty". When people don't know what is going on...panic sets in.



Obama's announcement on Friday and future announcements as he lays out plans for the country isn't going to solve the problem overnight, and maybe they won't solve the problems at all. But it will give adequate information to Wall St. so they can price in where the market should be.



However, I expect his plan to create 2.5 million jobs will continue an even more viscious rally on Monday.



Oh and I almost forgot to add...I'm buying plenty of puts and shorting once people are over this news and realize we are still in a hell hole.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227401189]<a href="http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081122/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy">Obama outlines plan to create 2.5 Million jobs.</a>



Market popped +500 on Obamas treasury news pick. In a normal market news like that wouldn't create that much buzz, but since people are looking for any ounce of direction in this country, markets go crazy. People already know our economy is falling apart, that is pretty much priced in the market. What drives further drops is "uncertanty". When people don't know what is going on...panic sets in.



Obama's announcement on Friday and future announcements as he lays out plans for the country isn't going to solve the problem overnight, and maybe they won't solve the problems at all. But it will give adequate information to Wall St. so they can price in where the market should be.



However, I expect his plan to create 2.5 million jobs will continue an even more viscious rally on Monday.



Oh and I almost forgot to add...I'm buying plenty of puts and shorting once people are over this news and realize we are still in a hell hole.</blockquote>


More likely there is one more leg down, around 712~713. If so, we shall stall before 818.69 (end of wave 1).
 
If you guys think we might get a pop or be slightly down by mid-Dec. Take a look at selling Dec Google 150 puts $1.40 (I'll be looking to pick up 10). Google would have to take a 40%+ dump by then to get hit which I don't think happens since they aren't gonna be annoucing earnings till Jan. 2009.
 
Video of the day at Calculated Risk is this great video of the Chart Lady, Louise Yamada. She may be someone's grandma, but she sure knows her technical trading and charts. I especially thought awgee would appreciate the video, since he is a fan of her as well.



<object width="325" height="250"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/youtube" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="325" height="250"></embed></object>
 
I follow and actually have known Louise for years. I respect her opinion. She can be VERY right but she can be VERY wrong. She made a major interest rate call on the long bond in 03-06 for markedly higher rates. Charts looked to back her up and it never happened. She is very good but always take it with a grain of salt
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227432679]If you guys think we might get a pop or be slightly down by mid-Dec. Take a look at selling Dec Google 150 puts $1.40 (I'll be looking to pick up 10). Google would have to take a 40%+ dump by then to get hit which I don't think happens since they aren't gonna be annoucing earnings till Jan. 2009.</blockquote>


Google declined 28% in a month. Very unlikely it goes to 150, but if DOW takes a nose-dive i wouldn't feel too comfortable with a naked put on googster.



Since DOWs peak...it declined 41% and WMT declined 16%. November alone DOW declined 16% and WMT declined 5%.

Lets say DOW went down 41% again just like it did since end of 2007 (a long time) it would be at 4751 from its current point of 8046. If WMT followed suit of its 16% decline it would be at 44 a share. AND we are talking about a long period of time about a year. Since you are selling a 1 month put, I can't see WMT drop below 44. To be safe...sell the 40 strike or 37.5. Each are going for .59 and .43 respectively. To match Google, just double the amount you plan to sell or triple it. But risk level is virtually none compared to the googster. JnJ is another option.



So if the market soars, stays flat or collapses WMT is very unlikely to break 40 over a period of a year let alone a month.



Another option is to buy Walmart, sell calls around its strike, lets say 52.5 strike and then sell naked calls at 45.
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227450048][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227432679]If you guys think we might get a pop or be slightly down by mid-Dec. Take a look at selling Dec Google 150 puts $1.40 (I'll be looking to pick up 10). Google would have to take a 40%+ dump by then to get hit which I don't think happens since they aren't gonna be annoucing earnings till Jan. 2009.</blockquote>


Google declined 28% in a month. Very unlikely it goes to 150, but if DOW takes a nose-dive i wouldn't feel too comfortable with a naked put on googster.



Since DOWs peak...it declined 41% and WMT declined 16%. November alone DOW declined 16% and WMT declined 5%.

Lets say DOW went down 41% again just like it did since end of 2007 (a long time) it would be at 4751 from its current point of 8046. If WMT followed suit of its 16% decline it would be at 44 a share. AND we are talking about a long period of time about a year. Since you are selling a 1 month put, I can't see WMT drop below 44. To be safe...sell the 40 strike or 37.5. Each are going for .59 and .43 respectively. To match Google, just double the amount you plan to sell or triple it. But risk level is virtually none compared to the googster. JnJ is another option.



So if the market soars, stays flat or collapses WMT is very unlikely to break 40 over a period of a year let alone a month.



Another option is to buy Walmart, sell calls around its strike, lets say 52.5 strike and then sell naked calls at 45.</blockquote>
I will look at selling WMT puts. How about selling BAC Dec 5 Puts? They are going for a $.41 bid and the good thing is that even if it somehow does to zero my loss is limited. haha
 
I'll take a look at DEC 5 for BAC. But right on top of my mind, i wouldn't do it naked. BAC went from 17.5 to 10 in 5 days, if something goes down in financial industry BAC can go down fast too. I'd only do it if you own the stock.



BTW big news, Obama will likely consider taxing the wealth at year 2010 to help revive economy. Also, he picked his commerce secretary.
 
I do think I am going to be sick...



<a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/24/business/24citibank.php">http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/24/business/24citibank.php</a>
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1227532968]I do think I am going to be sick...



<a href="http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/24/business/24citibank.php">http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/24/business/24citibank.php</a></blockquote>
Would telling you that "they are too big to fail" make you feel better? haha
 
Ok gang, I sold 20 uncovered calls earlier this morning...Dec 5 BAC call options @ $.26 so about $500 in profit if BofA doesn't take a complete dump in the next 3 weeks.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227573631]Ok gang, I sold 20 uncovered calls earlier this morning...Dec 5 BAC call options @ $.26 so about $500 in profit if BofA doesn't take a complete dump in the next 3 weeks.</blockquote>


Nice. I'll be rooting for you. I'm profiting 17K total from BAC and CSCO calls and Alcoa since Friday. I'm pretty stoked about that.



BTW, Usc...close call on GS. You know how you were saying no way it goes 30% in 2 days...its up 25% today alone. Lol, you squeezed by.
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1227276555]Holy sh*t! I can't believe what I am reading, both guys who have proven themselves on IHB to be right, morekaos and BV, are calling the mother of all short covering rallies. That's it! I am buying calls on the ultra long index ETFs. In a way I am being snarky, and in a way I am being dead serious.</blockquote>


So far this would have been a good trade.
 
[quote author="morekaos" date=1227575509][quote author="graphrix" date=1227276555]Holy sh*t! I can't believe what I am reading, both guys who have proven themselves on IHB to be right, morekaos and BV, are calling the mother of all short covering rallies. That's it! I am buying calls on the ultra long index ETFs. In a way I am being snarky, and in a way I am being dead serious.</blockquote>


So far this would have been a good trade.</blockquote>


Made this trade Friday morning, in addition to BAC and CSCO calls
 
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1227575104][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227573631]Ok gang, I sold 20 uncovered calls earlier this morning...Dec 5 BAC call options @ $.26 so about $500 in profit if BofA doesn't take a complete dump in the next 3 weeks.</blockquote>


Nice. I'll be rooting for you. I'm profiting 17K total from BAC and CSCO calls and Alcoa since Friday. I'm pretty stoked about that.



BTW, Usc...close call on GS. You know how you were saying no way it goes 30% in 2 days...its up 25% today alone. Lol, you squeezed by.</blockquote>
Tell me about it, GS is going NUTS today. Talk about timing, I'm sure glad the expiration happened on Friday. haha With the backing of C by the gov't and the huge run-up on BAC today, it seems very unlikely that it goes below 5 by the middle of this month.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227582391]All market internals are positive (advance/decline numbers) so it looks like we'll rally into closing. As such, I picked up 10 QQQQ Dec 26 calls.</blockquote>


Do you exit your longs before close today? I'm considering dumping my CSCO, BAC and SSO calls (40%, 53%, and 92% 3-day gains respectively)
 
[quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1227586194][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227582391]All market internals are positive (advance/decline numbers) so it looks like we'll rally into closing. As such, I picked up 10 QQQQ Dec 26 calls.</blockquote>


Do you exit your longs before close today? I'm considering dumping my CSCO, BAC and SSO calls (40%, 53%, and 92% 3-day gains respectively)</blockquote>
I think I'm gonna hold on to the calls until Friday closing (I think we go up until then, then the retail sales for black Friday comes out on Monday and the market drifts a bit lower). I have sold out-of-money calls on my BAC and CSCO shares so I'm staying put there. I'm still keeping my 5 QQQQ Dec puts just in case.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227586728][quote author="BLUE FIRE" date=1227586194][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1227582391]All market internals are positive (advance/decline numbers) so it looks like we'll rally into closing. As such, I picked up 10 QQQQ Dec 26 calls.</blockquote>


Do you exit your longs before close today? I'm considering dumping my CSCO, BAC and SSO calls (40%, 53%, and 92% 3-day gains respectively)</blockquote>
I think I'm gonna hold on to the calls until Friday closing (I think we go up until then, then the retail sales for black Friday comes out on Monday and the market drifts a bit lower). I have sold out-of-money calls on my BAC and CSCO shares so I'm staying put there. I'm still keeping my 5 QQQQ Dec puts just in case.</blockquote>


Yup, this is what I'm thinking too, but it is SOOOOO tough with this market. We all know it can turn on a dime...decisions, decisions...
 
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