So where's the net...

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1235445691]<blockquote>

Anon's examples of old condos

</blockquote>
Sure... there are older low-end units that have dropped... but remember... I said "all of Irvine" and "still a few holdouts". In addition, Prime said homes built 2002 or later which is where my main contention is.</blockquote>


Also, here is an interesting data point, even though it's an older house - No longer on Redfin, but was on Redfin Feb 16, 2009



http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/1-Castillo-92620/home/4786891



1 castillo

Irvine, CA 92620

Price: $649,000

BEDS: 4

BATHS: 3

SQ. FT.: 2,951

$/SQ. FT.: $220

LOT SIZE: 8,000 Sq. Ft.

PROPERTY TYPE: Single Family Residence

STYLE: Traditional

YEAR BUILT: 1978

STORIES: 2

AREA: Northwood

COUNTY: Orange

MLS#: F1792368

SOURCE: SoCalMLS

STATUS: Active

ON REDFIN: 71 days

WONDERFUL 4BEDROOMS + 3 BATHROOMS WESTSIDE HOUSE IN NORTHWOOD. LARGE LIVING ROOM W/FIREPLACE, GREAT EAT IN KITCHEN AND DINING AREA. WELL LANDSCAPED BACKYARD. QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD, SECURITY & CUL-DE-SAC STREET. VERY SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN. BUILT IN 1978. ATTACHED 3 CAR GARAGE. WALK TO ASSOCIATE POOL & TENNIS COURTS. NO MELLO ROOS.



HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATION INFORMATION

Dues #1: $97.00

Dues #1 Frequency: Monthly

Association Pool

Association Tennis Court



Pie shaped lot, backs to Irvine Blvd.



From iusd website address search:

1 Castillo is assigned to the following schools:



Elementary school

Santiago Hills Elementary

29 Christamon West

Phone: 949-936-6000



Middle school

Sierra Vista Middle

2 Liberty

Phone: 949-936-6600



High school

Northwood High

4515 Portola Parkway

Phone: 949-936-7200
 
To counter Anon:

<blockquote>

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/137-Weathervane-92603/home/5902203

Price: $1,269,000

Beds: 5

Baths: 5

Sq. Ft.: 2,900

$/Sq. Ft.: $438

Lot Size: 4,836 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Mediterranean

Year Built: 2003

Stories: 2

View: City Lights

Area: Quail Hill

County: Orange

MLS#: L28886

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 1 day

New Listing (24 hours)

</blockquote>
Or:

<blockquote>

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/104-Symphony-92603/home/5902781

104 Symphony

Irvine, CA 92603

Price: $1,299,990

Beds: 4

Baths: 4

Sq. Ft.: 3,500

$/Sq. Ft.: $371

Lot Size: 6,000 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Contemporary

Year Built: 2003

Stories: 2

View: Hills

Area: Quail Hill

County: Orange

MLS#: S534862

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 266 days

Unsold in 90+ days



Feb 21, 2009 Price Changed $1,299,990 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Feb 02, 2009 Price Changed $1,374,999 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Nov 22, 2008 Price Changed $1,375,000 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Nov 15, 2008 Price Changed $1,398,900 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Aug 16, 2008 Price Changed $1,399,899 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Jul 11, 2008 Price Changed $1,399,900 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Jun 02, 2008 Listed $1,399,000 -- SoCalMLS #S534862

Jul 06, 2007 Sold $1,430,000 7.9%/yr Public Records

Dec 09, 2003 Sold $1,089,000 -- Public Records

</blockquote>
Maybe if they put it at $1,089,000 (2003 pricing) it will sell.

<blockquote>

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/101-Lattice-92603/home/5902687

101 Lattice

Irvine, CA 92603

Price: $1,320,000

Beds: 4

Baths: 3

Sq. Ft.: 2,460

$/Sq. Ft.: $537

Lot Size: 6,154 Sq. Ft.

Property Type: Single Family Residence

Style: Tuscan

Year Built: 2004

Stories: 2

View: City Lights, City, Mountain

Area: Quail Hill

County: Orange

MLS#: P669899

Source: SoCalMLS

Status: Active

On Redfin: 52 days



Jan 02, 2009 Listed $1,320,000 -- SoCalMLS #P669899

Feb 28, 2006 Sold $1,380,000 19.4%/yr Public Records

Dec 03, 2004 Sold $1,108,000 -- Public Records

</blockquote>
2003 pricing would probably put this at the $1mil mark... still too far off.



Like I said... there are some areas in Irvine that are still holding out and are some distance from 2003 pricing. You'll get an occasional foreclosure/short sale every once in a while but the high-end still has lots of Kool-Aid in the system.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1214446732]The market will do what the least number of people think it will do.</blockquote>


I'm a subscriber to the "maximum amount of people get screwed over theory".



Aka, housing downtrends slows to a glacial pace this year, and keeps that way for a decade or more.



Thus, homeowners are still unable to get relief.



Those with no money down turn into renters that pay property taxes.



And renters simply have to buy eventually, as most people here don't have the patience to wait ten years.





I also wonder if the younger generation will not simply reject the values of prior generations, and decide that home ownership isn't something they desire after all. Although I'm not young, I've never owned a home and as the whole thing proceeds I'm slowly getting a *shrug* "frankly I don't need a home that bad" attitude over time. So I've grown a bit disinterested on if housing prices will decline or not (I was super-interested back in '06, when I thought housing prices would decline without bringing down the economy down the tubes).



Of course if renting gets more expensive than mortgage interests + taxes for comparable quality, we'll see, but we're still a long way off from that.
 
Just released artists renderings of the proposed net:



<img src="http://www.recticelinsulation.com/eurothane/pro/img/hoofdstuk4/h4-3.gif" alt="" />
 
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