So where's the net...

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optimusprime_IHB

optimusprime_IHB

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Sorry I'm lazy to look it up but I just want to see what the popular opinion is for how far back Real Estate pricing will go until we bottom out...



BTW...IMHO I think end of 2009 to early 2010 is the bottom or within 5% :D
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1214356826]Sorry I'm lazy to look it up but I just want to see what the popular opinion is for how far back Real Estate pricing will go until we bottom out...



BTW...IMHO I think end of 2009 to early 2010 is the bottom or within 5% :D</blockquote>


So I need 1 more year to wait? Oh noes!



Kidding aside... waiting at the sidelines watching everyone drown in their HELOCs and loan resets is getting to be too boring. I have the itch to jump in and be the delegated knife catcher.



Must resist, must resist the temptation.
 
Looks 2002 is the favorite so far with 6 of the 11 votes.... does that mean we're looking at another 25-30% price decline for our favorite Irvine homes?
 
Is this adjusted for inflation or the actual prices back then? Another question, is there any way to look up what the rate of ownership is in OC right now? I'm curious as to what percentage of the population is currently renting.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1214364493]Is this adjusted for inflation or the actual prices back then? Another question, is there any way to look up what the rate of ownership is in OC right now? I'm curious as to what percentage of the population is currently renting.</blockquote>


Good Q's..



To be arbitrary..I'm using 5% annual appreciation regardless (eventho it should be 2.5-3% based on inflation).
 
A few months ago I would have said 2003 levels. But looking at the market now.

The Numbers that hit on Housing Tracker today. Very bad. I mean REALLY bad.

If the Inventory for sale is jumping like that and the 75th Percentile

really lost $ 50K last WEEK. Its the floor falling out from the market.

We could go down another 30-40% before some bottom happens. Still a huge number

of ARM`s out there. The percentage that are going to be underwater is getting bigger everyday. Housing, Gas, The employment situation. Its getting really ugly fast.

You could see numbers going back to the mid 90`s in the near future.

I spent a few minutes with my banker yesterday. She has stories of people flipping

out in the bank because they cant cash their checks. Their employer has bounced the payroll

a couple times and now they are trying to cash the checks vs deposit.

This is a local Wachovia OC bank.

http://www.housingtracker.net/askin...es-LongBeach-SantaAna/SantaAna-Anaheim-Irvine
 
[quote author="PadreBrian" date=1214370973]2002. It won't get any lower than that UNLESS there are massive layoffs in OC/LA.</blockquote>


How much you wanna bet on that? I'll book a gentlemans wager on this as large or small as you like (we could agree to go to lunch with The Hat crew and one of us could pick up the tab).



We were overpriced 9/2001. I know 2002 was worse.
 
I think that 2002 in nominal prices, but then I recently saw a 1750 sq. ft. SFR that sold for $385K in 2001 and a coworker bought a 1650 sq. ft. condo in 2002 for $350K, both properties in Irvine and close to each other, so from 2001 to 2002 there was a jump in prices, and the same can be said from 2000 to 2001, in a fast declining market like this is hard to find a valuation, the market hasn't found the the real "north".



At some point in time in 2006-2007 the asking price for the condo was $650K.
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1214371664][quote author="PadreBrian" date=1214370973]2002. It won't get any lower than that UNLESS there are massive layoffs in OC/LA.</blockquote>


How much you wanna bet on that? I'll book a gentlemans wager on this as large or small as you like (we could agree to go to lunch with The Hat crew and one of us could pick up the tab).



We were overpriced 9/2001. I know 2002 was worse.</blockquote>




I was looking at a few listings recently that had sales in 98/99 and 2001/2002. Prices doubled over these few years. This is the period that prices went from 3.5x income to 5x income.



<strong>I predict that it overshoots back to 3x income, and then stabilizes at 4x income. </strong>It is all about income!



1998, here we come!
 
I too plan to party like it's 1999 (or earlier!). We had a perfect storm that led to a cresting of prices at ridiculous highs. Things are shaping up for a perfect storm toward the trough. Inflation: up; unemployment: up; lending standards: up; interest rates: up; wages: not up much. What have I missed?
 
Instead of doing a poll, I think we should create a market for where the bottom will be. Although it will be all play money, I'd bet we could end up forecasting even more accurately where bottom will be. Or maybe we could even do real money, but just make it extremely minimal? I'm not sure if it's legal with real money. What do you guys think?
 
How many of you guys think that we can be in 10 year decline that started in 2006, a slow death. We went up ten years from 1996 - 2006. Is it possible that we can go down 70% from the peak from 2006 - 2016. That would put us in 1998 prices. If mortgages rates climb up to 10 - 14% in the coming years, anything is possible.



Massive layoffs in OC/LA. <- it sure seems like we are headed this direction.



Panda.
 
Layoffs are happening left and right. We have got a pretty crazy economy so anything is possible even a pre 2000 roll back.



But I agree its all about income. So does 5x median family income for a SFR sound too unrealistic?
 
I voted 2002, but I suspect outlying areas like the IE would dip further. I wonder how many people will start moving (renting) in Irvine instead of commuting from outlying areas?
 
[quote author="arctichaze" date=1214398964]Layoffs are happening left and right. We have got a pretty crazy economy so anything is possible even a pre 2000 roll back.



But I agree its all about income. So does 5x median family income for a SFR sound too unrealistic?</blockquote>


<img src="http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SGEvq-VRRXI/AAAAAAAACMQ/HMwTAKlcLzg/s1600-h/HarvardMedianRatio.jpg" alt="" />



I can't get the image to work. Here's the link:



http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg...MQ/HMwTAKlcLzg/s1600-h/HarvardMedianRatio.jpg



You tell me.
 
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