Shiller: Automatic Savers... and the endowment effect

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<a href="http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/shiller55/English">Robert Shiller writes about an automatic savings plan</a>. And, a way to opt out. Hat tip <a href="http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2008/01/links-for-20-26.html">Dr. Thoma of the economist's view</a> for the linky.


<em>


People are fascinated by wealth. They enjoy watching the wealthy, savoring the thought of their fine homes, luxurious vacations, fancy cars, and gourmet dining. But if you infer from this that people spend a lot of time planning the lifetime accumulation of their own wealth, you would be wrong. </em>

<p><em>Most people do not seem to think very hard about how much to save from their income, or about how big the differences in their wealth could be in their later years if they just adjusted their saving rate today. Most people just pay off their mortgage, make the mandatory contributions to their state or private pension (if they have one), and keep some money for short-run contingencies. That’s about it. </em></p>

<p><em>The economist Frank Ramsey, in a famous article published in 1928, said that people have a “weakness of the imagination” about how their actions today affect their own future. He said that if people thought about it correctly, they might well conclude that they should save half their income. That way, the accumulated wealth might make them very happy in their later years. But, mostly, they don’t even think about that possibility. </em></p>

<p><em>Richard Thaler, a contemporary economist, spoke in 1980 of an “endowment effect.” Even though people may admire other things, they act as if they are mostly happy enough with whatever they already have, and lack the will to consider real change.</em> </p>

I am not one for government forced savings, but after studying the endowment effect, and the housing bubble, I clearly think some sort of savings plan needs to be implemented. I have to agree with Shiller, if there was a plan that required someone to opt out, then only a few would actually do so.





Shiller, has written about the <a href="http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d14b/d1459.pdf">wealth effect</a>, on more than <a href="http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13a/d1335.pdf">one occasion</a>, and I have several papers, written by well known authors, on the endowment effect. That is in case anyone is interested in discussing and researching the topic further, and I can upload the papers for anyone here to read. Even this lesser known author, wrote a paper on the psychology of the housing bubble, that cites the endowment effect. IMO, it is a major contributor the housing bubble, and in many ways, I have suffered from the effects of it myself.
 
It is well known that tax policy has an impact on economic behavior. If you want to discourage an activity, you tax it. If you want to encourage an activity, you subsidize it.





Our current tax system discourages saving money. You get taxed on interest income, dividends, capital gains and other money flows that come from under-consuming and putting your money to work in a productive capacity.





The best way to encourage people to save more and spend less would be to tax people based on consumption instead of income. (Why do we want to discourage people from earning money in the first place?) Of course, moving to a system like the Fair Tax ( www.fairtax.org ) would require the repeal of the 16th amendment, and a corollary based on consumption instead of income would have to be enacted.





Though not as effective, it wouldn't be hard to pass tax laws that made interest income, dividends and capital gains tax free.
 
From experience, people save more when they feel uncertain about their future. If life in American (or any other country) consumerism is good, then people will save less. Social security and medicare also removed some feelings of urgency in saving for retirement.





If we were to experience a depression, I'd imagine people's savings rate would go up... and the government would be busy cutting rates to make saving less attractive, and spending more attractive.
 
<p>I think that most people are genetically blind to anything farther out than one, 2 or at the most 3 years. If they weren't they'd never sign those toxic mtges.</p>

<p>Also, there is no assurance that you will live to enjoy your gains, or that raiders, thugs, or the govmint won't take it away before you have a chance to enjoy it.</p>
 
<p>I don't know about that, but i think alot of people have been taught that they should not worry about tomorrow, because you can have what you want today. CREDIT! CREDIT! CREDIT! Catch the Wave of the Future! </p>

<p> </p>

<p>I see WAY too many parents teaching their kids bad habits as well no financial responsbility....</p>

<p>-bix</p>
 
<p>My middle schooler's class had an assignment to write some nice things about another person.</p>

<p>Apparently, some of the kids wrote nice things about their parents. The parental response? "I was going to buy you a phone, but oh that's so nice, I'm going to get you a really nice laptop instead!"</p>

<p>That is seriously strange to me. Is it an LA thing or something? To show people you love them you have to spend $$$, and the more love, the more $$$?! No wonder people here go credit mad.</p>
 
<p>Mandatory savings would be interesting. Our pay stubs would have the following deduction lines: "Pretend Savings for the Future (Social Security): $10X..." and underneath it, "Actual Savings for the Future (Your Security): $X..."</p>
 
You get to delay your taxes on your 401(k) up to $15k. That's a pretty nice subsidy.



People can't think 5 years in the future, there's no way they can think 10, 20, or 40 years in the future. I'm putting 15% away + 5% from ER that adds up to 20%...doing this for 40 years will give me over $5M at 65. That ain't bad. I might have to buy a smaller home or drive a cheaper car, but at 65 I'll travel the world as much as I want.
 
"I might have to buy a smaller home or drive a cheaper car, but at 65 I'll travel the world as much as I want."



or you die tomorrow... of course i do not wish that to anyone... but live a good happy medium between living "in the now" and just living for the retirement
 
I think I save somewhere between 20%-25% of my earnings toward retirement funds. Spending 75%-80% today and saving the rest would seem like indulging in the present to me.





I also drive a 12 year old Honda Accord, shop with coupons, and recycle old computers in my spare time. This month I recycled 5 old P3's from my doctor's office by installing Puppy Linux on them. You don't even need a hard drive to run it, it can run from a live CD or USB flash drive. They make great web surfing, e-mail, and word processing (AbiWord) boxes, and runs great in as little as 128 MB RAM. We donated them to patients/visitors who wanted a web surfing box.





That's probably 5 computer's worth of sales tax that our local government didn't collect. I'm such a traitor to our consumerism economy and tax dollar starved government.

 
I'm on the young side, and my parents taught both my brother and I financial responsibility and the importance of saving. I put away 10% of my salary into a 401(k), add in another few thousand a year into a Roth IRA, and save save save about 30% of my income towards a down payment on a home. I live within my means, have fun, but don't go crazy extravagant with anything.



My brother is 2 years younger than me. He just bought himself a BMW roadster, lives in one of the new expensive apartment complexes in Woodbury, buys gadgets (iPhone when it came out, etc). I know he doesn't contribute to a 401(k), or save that much.



"You can lead a horse to water...."
 
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