REOs will rise 50% in the next 4 months.

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
How much did REO's increase from May when this thread started until Sept, when the thread predicted they would increase 50% during that time? More? Less?
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1232020242]How much did REO's increase from May when this thread started until Sept, when the thread predicted they would increase 50% during that time? More? Less?</blockquote>




Great retrospective! Unfortunately, they only increased about 25% before the gov't stepped in to squash them.



I"m hoping for much better news in the new year...
 
the gov;t didnt come in until late sept. so, how much did reo's increase from the time of this post in mid may until 4 months later, mid sept? more, less?
 
I have a couple friends who work in companies that buy bank repo properties. Word is that they're now getting cash infusions in the billions from investors.
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1232027126]the gov;t didnt come in until late sept. so, how much did reo's increase from the time of this post in mid may until 4 months later, mid sept? more, less?</blockquote>


As I said, it looks like REOs increased about 25% between may and sept, then took a dive when the state (1137?) put on the brakes, followed this winter by the feds.



What is unclear is whether the "delayed" REOs will come in one big surge over the next few months, or will slowly ramp up over the next year.
 
OK, so the prediction was in mid may that they would rise 50% in the next 4 months, which put us at mid sept. The gov't action came in late Sept. So why did they rise only 25% when the prediction was for 50%? Adjustables not adjusting higher? More people trying to modify their loan?
 
[quote author="stepping_up" date=1232108509]OK, so the prediction was in mid may that they would rise 50% in the next 4 months, which put us at mid sept. The gov't action came in late Sept. So why did they rise only 25% when the prediction was for 50%? Adjustables not adjusting higher? More people trying to modify their loan?</blockquote>


AB1137 made the NODs and foreclosures fall off a cliff in September. Couple that with lenders doing their own foreclosure moratoriums (i.e. BofA with their Countryfried garbage), IndyCrap doing whatever it takes to stave off foreclosures, and the take overs of banks like WAMU (WAMU knew they were toast, and almost all of their foreclosures were canceled in September, but they are all back now), then it helps explain why the numbers fell in September. It was just a jam in the system, and now they are starting to find their way back through the system. If the trend held and there was no jam in the system, foreclosures in OC would have risen by over 40% from May to September. Not exactly 50%, but still pretty nasty. Now, just watch the numbers for Q1 and Q2 to shatter foreclosure records.



<a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2008/12/17/foreclosure-surge-in-ca-as-legislative-impact-passes/">Check out what Paul had to say about it last month</a> in comparing it to the Mass. law that was passed. It his latest print edition he goes even more in depth in why moratoriums are just another way of hitting the pause button, but now the play button has been hit again.
 
I don't think there is any way to get data on how many sub primes are still out there hanging on by a thread not because of a modification, just a voluntary change in reset date by the bank. If I know two of these, there has to be a lot more. While alt-a's and option arms are still coming, I don't think sub-prime is finished either.
 
Subprime is no where near being finished. I just checked the MBS pools of some of the more famous subprime lenders, and what do ya know? 30 and 60 day delinquencies were up, as well as those who have entered into foreclosure in the last four months. It looks like roll rates are up too, i.e. 30 day late, next month goes to 60 day late, month after 90 day late, etc.



I checked some ALT-A and prime MBS pools too. Guess what? We're all subprime now!



BTW, this is the best future indicator of what is to come, because the amount of people entering into foreclosure are barely just now showing up in the numbers you read about in the press, and because the 30 and 60 day lates have increased and those numbers are not in the numbers you read about at all.
 
[quote author="tmare" date=1232113377]I don't think there is any way to get data on how many sub primes are still out there hanging on by a thread not because of a modification, just a voluntary change in reset date by the bank. If I know two of these, there has to be a lot more. While alt-a's and option arms are still coming, I don't think sub-prime is finished either.</blockquote>




One other wild-card is how long the banks are taking from NOTs to REO to eviction.



They still don't have the staff to process this huge number of REOs, and I'm hearing anecdotally that FBs are staying "Rent-Free" for a year now.



I wonder if the banks will start hiring more people (or contractors more likely) to get the FBs out and the houses listed?
 
If Irvine is indicative of the NODs flow throughout the rest of the counter, NODs must be going through the roof. Irvine is up to average of 4.5 per business day through 1/15... There are almost three times as many NODs filed on Irvine properties than there are closed sales over the same period.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1232190952][quote author="tmare" date=1232113377]I don't think there is any way to get data on how many sub primes are still out there hanging on by a thread not because of a modification, just a voluntary change in reset date by the bank. If I know two of these, there has to be a lot more. While alt-a's and option arms are still coming, I don't think sub-prime is finished either.</blockquote>




One other wild-card is how long the banks are taking from NOTs to REO to eviction.



They still don't have the staff to process this huge number of REOs, and I'm hearing anecdotally that FBs are staying "Rent-Free" for a year now.



I wonder if the banks will start hiring more people (or contractors more likely) to get the FBs out and the houses listed?</blockquote>


I know of two foreclosures in my neighborhood where the bank took them back in sept and still no eviction. That one on Surf that Cayci posted in the 50% off thread was taken back in April and they didn't file the eviction until Nov.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1232191716]If Irvine is indicative of the NODs flow throughout the rest of the counter, NODs must be going through the roof. Irvine is up to average of 4.5 per business day through 1/15... There are almost three times as many NODs filed on Irvine properties than there are closed sales over the same period.</blockquote>


I would think this will start to make a difference in prices in fifteen months from now.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1232194493][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1232191716]If Irvine is indicative of the NODs flow throughout the rest of the counter, NODs must be going through the roof. Irvine is up to average of 4.5 per business day through 1/15... There are almost three times as many NODs filed on Irvine properties than there are closed sales over the same period.</blockquote>


I would think this will start to make a difference in prices in fifteen months from now.</blockquote>


Too bad I will probably already own something by then...



Sad IPO, :(
 
Wow, Dr.Housingbubble has a great post on optionARMS in CA today:



Option ARMs and Recast Shock Syndrome: Toxic Financial Products are Imploding on Schedule. Examining the Impact on California.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/...-schedule-examining-the-impact-on-california/



$300B of california optionARMs exist,



<blockquote>As of December of 2008, a stunning 28% of option ARMs were delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure. We haven?t even seen the major recasts and already over 1 in 4 of these loans is imploding. Can you say subprime redux?



(a) You have a couple making $100,000 buy a home in California for $600,000 with an option ARM in 2005. Let us run the numbers:



optionarm600k



Not bad. We have a $600,000 home for only $1,995 a month. Now, we aren?t factoring taxes and insurance which will probably add another $625 a month. So let us see how our budget looks:



Monthly Net Pay: $6,010



PITI: $2,620



Okay, so we?re okay with the current payment. But let us now fast forward to today:



(b) The same couple is now making $70,000 because of cut backs and the employment situation in the state. The home is now worth $350,000 and the payment has jumped up since it is 2009. What does the crystal ball show us?



Monthly Net Pay: $4,499



PITI: $3,876 (with average 63% jump on PI)



Game over.</blockquote>


<strong>Hah, GAME OVER.......</strong>
 
from matt's blog:

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/



<strong>

O.C. has nearly 6,000 properties in foreclosure pipeline</strong>

1.3 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the county.

up from 0.9 percent in December 2007.



<strong>late mortgages double</strong>

And 4.8 percent of O.C. mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent in December, vs. 2.8 percent for the same period last year.





Using mr. mortgage's conversion rate of 85% of NODs to NOTs, and ~450k total OC mortgages, that should mean:



<strong>22k REOs in six months</strong>



Can this really be true????
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1234065057]from matt's blog:

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/



<strong>

O.C. has nearly 6,000 properties in foreclosure pipeline</strong>

1.3 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the county.

up from 0.9 percent in December 2007.



<strong>late mortgages double</strong>

And 4.8 percent of O.C. mortgage loans were 90 days or more delinquent in December, vs. 2.8 percent for the same period last year.





Using mr. mortgage's conversion rate of 85% of NODs to NOTs, and ~450k total OC mortgages, that should mean:



<strong>22k REOs in six months</strong>



Can this really be true????</blockquote>


Mr. Mortgage's conversion rate of 85% is a bit dramatically high. I haven't looked at the conversion ratio lately, because with AB1137 it is useless, but even if the old 60% conversion ratio still stands... that means a lot of foreclosures.
 
why do you think mr. mortgage's rate is off? or are you saying that the rate for OC is lower than statewide? Do you think that the OC rate will increase with the increasing UE?
 
1. Mr. Mortgage is a drama queen. Sorry, but he is, and he tends to exaggerate things, and mix statistics up, making things sound worse than they are. He serves a purpose to shock and awe, but he is not the authority on everything mortgage related, as much as he thinks he is and as much as many of his fans think he is. I don't think his 85% conversion ratio is an actual statistic, but something he estimates, or pulled from one specific source and not how mortgages are performing as a whole. Did he cite his source? Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't.



2. I have been following the conversion in OC for over a year now, and the only reason I stopped is because of AB1137 screwing things up. It has never been near 85%. I used to post the stats in the foreclosure thread, and you can see it for yourself. You can also do it yourself. Take the total of the last 6 months of foreclosures, then take the total of the 6 months prior to that time period for NODs, then divide. Again, it may be high right now due to AB1137, it slowed NODs down, not so much for foreclosures.



3. Yes, OC is lower compared to statewide, and will probably stay lower, but not by much. I doubt that CA is seeing a 85% NOD to foreclosure ratio, and I doubt we will.



Find me the actual sources, that you can cite, that back up the stats provided by Mr. Mortgage. Then, we can discuss the numbers, and what exactly he means by conversion ratio.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top