recession fears

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definitely agree. calling a recession is a metric looking at past performance. I felt we were in a recession starting in nov/dec time frame. gdp growth for the last quarter was .6% revised (I believe it was .1% revised, but can't find data for it).
 
All I want is for Dubya to have to admit in public that we are in a recession. Hah. He wouldn't admit it if half of everybody was fired tomorrow.
 
yes, the definition of depression is at least 2 continuous years of recession or 1 year of recession with at least 10% year-over-year gdp decline in one of the two most recent quarters, or at least 7.5% gdp decline if the prior quarter's year-over-year decline was at least 10%. depressions can only be announced once a recession has first announced by NBER. only under recession conditions is the director of the NBER authorized to commission a research committee to examine whether the economy has been in a state of depression, and only in the first 2 years of an NBER director's 3-yr term. the latter is a precautionary measure as the act of commissioning a depression committee itself has a substantial impact, and therefore must be completely free of any possible political and term-related conflicts of interests. if the committee finds that a depression has occurred, the official level of the depression, based on a color code system similar to terror alerts, is announced to the general public.





if our economy plunges into a depression as some here have forecasted, i think the crap hits the fan in 2Q 2009. we should get the official depression color code around 4Q 2012. by that time i will have sheltered most of my assets in gold like awgee and purchased plenty of duck tape to secure the gold.
 
Ukyo116, both inflation and deflation are monetary illnesses caused by an imbalance between currency in an economy and demand for goods and services in that economy. In my example of Adam starting "Adamco" existed in an inflationary environment, Adam wouldn't wait to start his business. He would start it immediately because he could sell goods produced today at a higher price tomorrow. Though the buying power of those dollars he earned tomorrow would be reduced, if he monitored his costs properly, he could break even or come out ahead.





Warren Buffet was on CNBC last week and took questions submitted from viewers. Someone from some African country with hyperinflation (possibly Zimbabwe) asked what he could invest in if he lived in a hyperinflationary environment. Warren Buffet told him that the only thing he could really invest in was himself. When inflation is running wild, if you are able to sell your services or a good that you produce, you'll be able to keep up with inflation. But in a deflationary environment, the macro environment makes life rough whether you work for yourself or for someone else. (Even the 75% of the population who kept their jobs during the Great Depression earned an average of 42% less when all was said and done)





I'll take inflation over deflation any day.
 
Something for the gold bugs:





<a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/gold-fiat-money-and-price-stability.pdf">Gold, Fiat Money and Price Stability</a>





A commodity money regime such as the classical gold standard has long been


associated with long-run price stability. During that era, though, many economists


worried about instability associated with the gold standard and proposed


fundamental reforms. Fisher (1934) traces the evolution of the idea of a monetary


standard based on a price index and describes 28 nineteenth century proposals


made by legislators and prominent economists.1 Perhaps the most well known is


the compensated dollar proposal made by Fisher (1913) himself. Since the end of


the gold standard, many economists have argued that a fiat money regime based


on credible rules for low inflation could do better than commodity money (see, for


example, Friedman 1951, 1960). In 1980 that promise was in doubt. High and


variable inflation was the number one economic problem facing the major


market-type economies. The U.S. gold commission was given a mandate to


evaluate a future role for gold in the U.S. monetary system.2 Since then, however,


it appears that central banks have learned how to maintain low inflation in a fiat


money system. Many central banks have adopted implicit or explicit inflation


targets in this new era.
 
<p>Hmm....</p>

<strong>U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly flat last month</strong>

<p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120549673266636375.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120549673266636375.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news</a></p>

<p>U.S. consumer prices were unexpectedly flat last month</p>

<p> </p>

<p><strong>In praise of expected inflation</strong></p>

<p><a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/10/in-praise-of-expected-inflation/">http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/03/10/in-praise-of-expected-inflation/</a></p>

<p>And given that a negative real interest rate is necessary, we should be thankful that it’s possible. If we had come into this slump with zero expected inflation, we’d be up against the zero lower bound right now. It’s only because we had an <a href="http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/preemptive-easing/">inflation buffer</a> that the Fed even has a chance of avoiding a Japan-type trap.</p>

<p>So let us all praise expected inflation. Without it, we’d already be in deep sushi. </p>
 
I have a question for those who were present during the 1980's when Volcker raised rates in 13% to fight inflation. What are you views on Volcker's policy to fight inflation by raising rates? Sentiment was against him during that time for axing so many jobs but looked with retrospect, he is put into a better light.
 
<em>"What are you views on Volcker's policy to fight inflation by raising rates?"</em>





He was absolutely right in what he did. Without curbing inflation, we would not have had the 25+ years of prosperity that followed.





BTW, The <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/Annual/H15_FF_O.txt">Fed Funds Rate</a> exceeded 16% at its peak.
 
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