Quest For the $1,000,000 dollar home!

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[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1239934820][quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1239933223]Take a look at the condo market in QH. There is the canary in the coal mine. Attached units trade at 10-20% discount to detached units. With QH condos in the $300-325 range currently, and going down, that puts detached at $330 - $390 (coincidentally if you look at recent closes not WTF asking prices, this is where the detached market it trading).</blockquote>
While I agree with you that QH prices are going down.... I can't find where the larger SFRs homes are trading currently at $390. I found one listing that closed at $391/sft for 3300sft but that's it.



Even at $330/sft, $990k for Tapestry's Plan 3 (largest model) still seems high to me. I'm hoping for USC's $250/sft prediction.</blockquote>


110 Ambiance (Sienna Tract) $391 sq.ft. in February.

5 Foliage (Linden) $397



If 39 Balcony gets their full ask $375.



(thanks to ipoplaya and IR2 for closing price figures).
 
I was referring to Ambiance.



Don't get me wrong... according to IR2's 2008 data most of the larger (~3000sft) are at the $390-$400 range... just currently... there's not a lot being sold because of the KnifeCatcher pricing.



I don't see anything closed at $330/sft in the larger QH SFRs.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1239937537]I was referring to Ambiance.



Don't get me wrong... according to IR2's 2008 data most of the larger (~3000sft) are at the $390-$400 range... just currently... there's not a lot being sold because of the KnifeCatcher pricing.



I don't see anything closed at $330/sft in the larger QH SFRs.</blockquote>


The $330 level is the price implied by a 10% detached premium of very low closes on attached units. Agreed that we are not there yet, but these typical relationship should hold (they certainly did when these homes were sold new), and we could reasonably expect to see them in the near future.



I also agree that $300 sq/ft. for a Tapestry is a bit rich. Echoing Trojan's comments, I tend to agree that QH condo pricing will fall toward the low $200s, and the SFR pricing in mid to hight $200s per square.



It is unimaginable to many people that such a scenario could unfold (ahem, frank69), but that does not mean is cannot happen. It was equally unimaginable that prices could increase as dramatically as they did from the ~$150 sq.ft. range in 2001 in nearby Oak Creek.



Just because it is hard to imagine doesn't mean it won't happen.
 
[quote author="CapitalismWorks" date=1239941608]Just because it is hard to imagine doesn't mean it won't happen.</blockquote>


Agreed, what is hard to imagine is the consequence of such wealth destruction on the economy.
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1239923076][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1239866221][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1239865734]I think you mean 2012.... because there was no QH in 2002.



And I don't think that's far off for Tapestrys... getting to $1mil for Chantilly and Sienna maybe... for Vicara... I hope so but doubt it.</blockquote>
Yeah, good catch. I think and a lot of other people will be suprised where the dust settles with these McMansions in QH in 3-5 years from now. My guestimate is that the bottom is around $250/sf for SFR and $225/sf for condos in QH.</blockquote>


I don't know if this is realistic or wishful thinking but I sure hope it happens.



Would you put Shady in the $400-$500 range?</blockquote>
Yeah, I think Shady probably ends up around $400/sf +/-
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1240012979]Would you think anything in PS or Woodbury still sells over $1,000,000?</blockquote>
Honestly, no house in Northpark, Woodbury, Tustion Ranch, West Irvine, Quail Hill, Northwoods, or Oak Creek deserves to be worth over $1M and won't when everything is said and done with the housing downturn.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1240020522][quote author="Roo" date=1240012979]Would you think anything in PS or Woodbury still sells over $1,000,000?</blockquote>
Honestly, no house in Northpark, Woodbury, Tustion Ranch, West Irvine, Quail Hill, Northwoods, or Oak Creek deserves to be worth over $1M and won't when everything is said and done with the housing downturn.</blockquote>


This is not as crazy as it looks. I don't know if "none" or "few" is the right word, but either way that would be some significant drop.



Only Shady and TR would stay over the $1M mark. Oh, and some of the wonderful high-rises on Jamboree!
 
[quote author="Roo" date=1240023385][quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1240020522][quote author="Roo" date=1240012979]Would you think anything in PS or Woodbury still sells over $1,000,000?</blockquote>
Honestly, no house in Northpark, Woodbury, Tustion Ranch, West Irvine, Quail Hill, Northwoods, or Oak Creek deserves to be worth over $1M and won't when everything is said and done with the housing downturn.</blockquote>


This is not as crazy as it looks. I don't know if "none" or "few" is the right word, but either way that would be some significant drop.



Only Shady and TR would stay over the $1M mark. Oh, and some of the wonderful high-rises on Jamboree!</blockquote>
But think about it, it costs about $80/sf to $100/sf or less (depending on the scale of the builder) to build a stucco-box on the Ranch. Then there are other costs such as the land, entitlements, interest carry, permits, etc. When you add up all of the costs, you are definitely below $200/sf all-in in terms of replacement cost.
 
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