Pretty gloomy article about housing

[irvinehomeowner]

Except if you bought in bubble years. 2005-2007 buyers are just now seeing appreciation and it is fragile.

In Irvine, I think you saw significant appreciation starting the end of 2012.

So that still puts you in a 7-year window.

Obviously, your situation will vary but I think you will see that a 10-year window should net you considerable gains. People who bought in the last 80s (the previous bubble), only had to wait 10 years to see their values bounce back and then some.

 

[socal78]

Should be paid off on or before age 65 and you can either downsize, have the kids move back in or cash out and cruise the world.

Yesterday, I happened to be looking at this from www.princess.com:

111 Days Pacific Princess 2016 World Cruise - Round Trip Los Angeles
Roundtrip from Los Angeles, California
Pacific Princess 2016 World Cruise - Round Trip Los Angeles
Ships: Pacific Princess
Ports: Los Angeles, California | Honolulu, Hawaii | Pago Pago, American Samoa | Cross International Date Line | Nuku'alofa, Tonga | Bay of Islands, New Zealand | Auckland, New Zealand | Sydney, Australia | Cairns, Australia | Darwin, Australia | Bandar Seri Begawan (Muara), Brunei | Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia | Hong Kong, China | Hong Kong, China | Ho Chi Minh City (Phu My), Vietnam | Singapore | Colombo, Sri Lanka | Mangalore, India | Muscat (Mina Qaboos), Oman | Dubai, United Arab Emirates | Dubai, United Arab Emirates | Aqaba (for Petra), Jordan | Suez Canal, Egypt (Scenic Cruising) | Rhodes, Greece | Soudha Bay, Greece | Bari, Italy | Venice, Italy | Venice, Italy | Korcula, Croatia | Valletta, Malta | Mallorca (Palma), Spain | Cartagena, Spain | Ceuta (Spanish Morocco), Spain | Madeira (Funchal), Portugal | Bermuda (Hamilton) | Ft. Lauderdale, Florida | Curacao | Cartagena, Colombia | Panama Canal, Panama (Full Transit) | Puerto Quepos, Costa Rica | Puerto Vallarta, Mexico | La Paz, Mexico | Los Angeles, California

I'm ready for my second childhood in a few years.  I've just checked off one New Year's Resolution.

 

[socal78]

T.I. Meet-Up in Sri Lanka.

 

[Irvinecommuter]

you can be this lady:

After her husband died, an 86-year old widow decided to sell her 10-acre Florida estate and permanently live on a luxury cruise ship.

Lee Watchtstetter, or Mama Lee as the ship's crew calls her, has been aboard the Crystal Serenity for nearly seven years, reports the Asbury Park Press. She estimated that living on the Serenity this year will cost her $164,000. This includes cost of her stateroom, meals, gratuities and Broadway-style entertainment and other daily activities.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102352057

 

[socal78]

you can be this lady:

After her husband died, an 86-year old widow decided to sell her 10-acre Florida estate and permanently live on a luxury cruise ship.

Lee Watchtstetter, or Mama Lee as the ship's crew calls her, has been aboard the Crystal Serenity for nearly seven years, reports the Asbury Park Press. She estimated that living on the Serenity this year will cost her $164,000. This includes cost of her stateroom, meals, gratuities and Broadway-style entertainment and other daily activities.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102352057

Yup. When you look at the costs per diem, many seniors consider the idea because it is actually cheaper than a nursing home! Check out the article on Snopes. Not a half bad idea.  http://www.snopes.com/travel/trap/retire.asp

 

[Irvinecommuter]

you can be this lady:

After her husband died, an 86-year old widow decided to sell her 10-acre Florida estate and permanently live on a luxury cruise ship.

Lee Watchtstetter, or Mama Lee as the ship's crew calls her, has been aboard the Crystal Serenity for nearly seven years, reports the Asbury Park Press. She estimated that living on the Serenity this year will cost her $164,000. This includes cost of her stateroom, meals, gratuities and Broadway-style entertainment and other daily activities.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102352057

Yup. When you look at the costs per diem, many seniors consider the idea because it is actually cheaper than a nursing home! Check out the article on Snopes. Not a half bad idea.  http://www.snopes.com/travel/trap/retire.asp

I think most seniors can do okay on land especially if they have law housing expenses.  When I get to retirement age, I am selling my home and moving to a specious apartment.

Also, the issue for retirement really come with medical issues.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

not bad a deal for the world cruise. $40k per person for the suite.

 

[socal78]

not bad a deal for the world cruise. $40k per person for the suite.

That's for a mini-suite on the shorter 94 day world cruise. The itinerary I posted is for the 111 day closed-loop world cruise. The fare on that one is higher.

 

[socal78]

I'm 45 so I'm out of those categories

Oh, really? I know Asians look unreasonably young and everything but that's astounding.  : From your pictures, I would have guessed no more than early 30s.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

~$47k for mini-suite (suite sold out) for the one starts and ends in LA. still a very good value; less than 6 figures for two people.

not bad a deal for the world cruise. $40k per person for the suite.

That's for a mini-suite on the shorter 94 day world cruise. The itinerary I posted is for the 111 day closed-loop world cruise. The fare on that one is higher.

 

[homer_simpson]

I'm 45 so I'm out of those categories

Oh, really? I know Asians look unreasonably young and everything but that's astounding.  : From your pictures, I would have guessed no more than early 30s.

You clearly have mistaken me for IHO

 

[socal78]

~$47k for mini-suite (suite sold out) for the one starts and ends in LA. still a very good value; less than 6 figures for two people.

not bad a deal for the world cruise. $40k per person for the suite.

That's for a mini-suite on the shorter 94 day world cruise. The itinerary I posted is for the 111 day closed-loop world cruise. The fare on that one is higher.

If you're considering it, just remember to account for gratuities, taxes, etc. Add $12 pp/day for gratuity in a mini-suite and above ($11.50 for other staterooms) plus $1,890 taxes /port charges each. Close to $100k for 2 adults. I wish that they would automatically include those things in the fare as it would make it easier to compare one liner to another but they never seem to. I think there might only be one liner that does, iirc.  That's the total if you choose not to tip your steward extra, which many / most do. They can also accept gifts. That is a plus for them so they won't have to split their cash tip with the crew.

I don't know if I could really last that long on a ship without losing my sanity or getting homesick, though. They have many days at sea in between all of the ports. Sometimes there are 5 days at sea in between.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I would trade places with FARMIE... except the moving up north part.

 

[socal78]

I would trade places with FARMIE...

None of my business... but why? Be you, Iho.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I would trade places with FARMIE...

None of my business... but why?

He's got an ankle-breaker crossover.

I think anyone would like to be younger X number of years to redo some things.

My main one would probably be to have one or two more kids.

 

[jamboreedude]

But such robust foreign purchases can't overcome what ails the U.S. housing market. Activity is weak even now that banks are no longer tightening mortgage-lending standards, according to a Fed survey. Banks are searching for new lines of business since the Dodd-Frank reform law and regulations are depriving them of revenue from proprietary trading, derivative origination and investing and off-balance sheet activities. The end of the mortgage refinancing surge has added to the pressure on banks.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...ith-government-programs-and-big-bank-interest

Biggest hurdle is the 20% down payment.  With RE prices so high, saving 20% is next to impossible.  For example, a $600K property requires a down payment of $120,000...that means 8-12 year worth of savings.

$120K down is peanuts to the chinaman lol

 

[socal78]

I think anyone would like to be younger X number of years to redo some things.

My main one would probably be to have one or two more kids.

Well, you're not dead yet. Maybe it will still happen?

 

[Irvinecommuter]

But such robust foreign purchases can't overcome what ails the U.S. housing market. Activity is weak even now that banks are no longer tightening mortgage-lending standards, according to a Fed survey. Banks are searching for new lines of business since the Dodd-Frank reform law and regulations are depriving them of revenue from proprietary trading, derivative origination and investing and off-balance sheet activities. The end of the mortgage refinancing surge has added to the pressure on banks.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...ith-government-programs-and-big-bank-interest

Biggest hurdle is the 20% down payment.  With RE prices so high, saving 20% is next to impossible.  For example, a $600K property requires a down payment of $120,000...that means 8-12 year worth of savings.

$120K down is peanuts to the chinaman lol

Didn't really need the racial slur but most foreigners from overseas are FCB...they don't need the mortgage and couldn't really get one due to their lack of reported income/credit history.

 

[jmoney74]

Honestly though... Irvine is higher end in terms of OC real estate. Saving 100k shouldn't be too difficult if you really feel that you could afford the area. 

 

[paperboyNC]

Yes, it's hard to save 20% down. I personally saved over $120k before I was 25. It helped that the stock market was very kind to me (over 100% gains).

But you guys are having trouble thinking outside the box:

20% down is not required. I have neighbors with FHA loans (3% down) and co-workers that did 80/10/10 loans (yes, after the new regulations were in place).

Potential sources for $120k down:
- Parents help with the downpayment
- Inheritances from grandparents, etc.
- Stock options from working for a start-up that gets bought / goes public
- Marry rich
- Live with parents for two years with dual incomes and no kids and save $5,000/mo.
- Sell condo you bought right out of college for a big profit (with your parents gift for the smallish down payment)

I'm not sure why so many people assume that successful low 30s families got all of their money by working and saving. With a husband and a wife there is double the family / double the special circumstances to help out.