Prediction from Harry Dent - The Great Depression II
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PANDA_IHB
New member
[quote author="awgee" date=1228365392][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228362198]I don't have any doubt we'll get 8 quarters of negative growth.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
[quote author="awgee" date=1228365392][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228362198]I don't have any doubt we'll get 8 quarters of negative growth.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
Awgee:
I am well versed in the results of the colapse of the Great Depression. I am also intamately firmilar with Steinbeck and his writings, and the plight of the Dust Bowl Okies. I was lucky to have three GD survivor Grandparents growing up, and paid attention. So forgive me, but that cite absolutely wasn't what I wanted to know.
Where "recession" is two consequetive quarters of negative growth (and thus is a technical term), is "depression" a technical term and if so, what is it's definition?
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
Awgee:
I am well versed in the results of the colapse of the Great Depression. I am also intamately firmilar with Steinbeck and his writings, and the plight of the Dust Bowl Okies. I was lucky to have three GD survivor Grandparents growing up, and paid attention. So forgive me, but that cite absolutely wasn't what I wanted to know.
Where "recession" is two consequetive quarters of negative growth (and thus is a technical term), is "depression" a technical term and if so, what is it's definition?
FairEconomist_IHB
New member
Depression is *not* a technical term. The only attempt I've seen at a formal definition is the 8 quarters definition, which turns up from time to time like <a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov08/depression-spengler11-08.html">here</a>. I saw it once in a online reference-type publication but my google-fu is weak.
I think of it in terms of unemployment and 1873 and 1893 are usually called "Depressions", with unemployment in the mid-teens, depending on whose estimate you use. So my casual definition is unemployment over 13%. I'm not expecting a Great Depression, like in the 30's, but I am expecting something comparable to 1873 or 1893.
I think of it in terms of unemployment and 1873 and 1893 are usually called "Depressions", with unemployment in the mid-teens, depending on whose estimate you use. So my casual definition is unemployment over 13%. I'm not expecting a Great Depression, like in the 30's, but I am expecting something comparable to 1873 or 1893.
jbenko_IHB
New member
[quote author="PANDA" date=1228365869][quote author="awgee" date=1228365392][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228362198]I don't have any doubt we'll get 8 quarters of negative growth.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.</blockquote>
Panda,
One thing I'm trying to time is when inflation will kick in. This is why for about 3 days I've been doing research anyway possible to come to a conclusion. At first I thought inflation would happen anywhere from late next year to about 2 years from now. This is why I started buying long term puts on the dollar, and buying long term calls on GLD (gold). I think I'm wrong. Tomorrow, I'm going to go with my conclusions and sell them both as I don't think gold will go up anytime soon and I don't know enough yet to make a conclusion whether I should be long on the dollar.
However...here are some tidbits...
1. Unemployment rates continue to rise and considering that about 70% of our GDP is consumer spending it will crush our GDP.
2. Baltic Dry Shipping completely shut down. Demand for grains, ores, etc. is collapsed. We are at record low levels and continue to dig deeper. Here is something scary. Guess what some shipping companies are charging now per hour to ship. 1,000 a day. During high demand for raw materials such as ore, it was as high as 200,000 a day. This is why some shipping firms went from 150 a share to 5.
3. Manufacturing index set new lows. It is at 33 right now which is the lowest ever since it is tracked.
4. People thought China spending will hold things up as they are growing at 11%+. That 11% is being revised down to 8% to 7% and some say it can even get lower. Some say China is full of crap and they are inflating their growth rates. If demand for Chinese goods completely shuts down (which is mainly us buying their crap) then I can't see them growing. I read an article (not sure how credible) that stated that 60,000 manufacturing firms are being shut down a week. This is bad for china as their unemployment levels will skyrocket.
5. Savings. People are scaling back and starting to saving money. Currently we save ZERO money. However, lets say that savings rises from 0% to 3%. Since 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending than 3% X 70% = 2.1%. This means that negative GDP can be derived from people simply saving. Right now GDP is negative due to consumers not "ABLE" to spend more. Consumers have peaked, and now credit cards are maxed as well. Not to mention credit card companies are going to yank 2 trillion in credit over next 18 months. Once saving kicks in as fear kicks in...it will add more negative GDP. 10% savings? thats a -7% GDP decline alone.
All of this will lead to massive profit declines for corporations. Which in turn will lower prices even more to the point where they can't be lowered anymore as costs exceed profits. This in turn will force companies to fire more people so they can lower their cost of goods and in turn lower prices more so people can buy. If they don't buy...cycle continues.
If people are fired...then obviously they can't buy so the cycle will continue. It is like being stranded on an island, and eventually you will have to start eating your own flesh to survive.
The governemnt can print and print...however, the rate that wealth is destroyed not sure they can catch up. IMO based on things, inflation is a long ways away.
So based on these factors I think spending will completely collapse. People won't buy anything past basic needs. In my opinion, we haven't seen anything yet.
Not sure if this term exists, but I bet we see "hyper-deflation" in the future not hyperinflation
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.</blockquote>
Panda,
One thing I'm trying to time is when inflation will kick in. This is why for about 3 days I've been doing research anyway possible to come to a conclusion. At first I thought inflation would happen anywhere from late next year to about 2 years from now. This is why I started buying long term puts on the dollar, and buying long term calls on GLD (gold). I think I'm wrong. Tomorrow, I'm going to go with my conclusions and sell them both as I don't think gold will go up anytime soon and I don't know enough yet to make a conclusion whether I should be long on the dollar.
However...here are some tidbits...
1. Unemployment rates continue to rise and considering that about 70% of our GDP is consumer spending it will crush our GDP.
2. Baltic Dry Shipping completely shut down. Demand for grains, ores, etc. is collapsed. We are at record low levels and continue to dig deeper. Here is something scary. Guess what some shipping companies are charging now per hour to ship. 1,000 a day. During high demand for raw materials such as ore, it was as high as 200,000 a day. This is why some shipping firms went from 150 a share to 5.
3. Manufacturing index set new lows. It is at 33 right now which is the lowest ever since it is tracked.
4. People thought China spending will hold things up as they are growing at 11%+. That 11% is being revised down to 8% to 7% and some say it can even get lower. Some say China is full of crap and they are inflating their growth rates. If demand for Chinese goods completely shuts down (which is mainly us buying their crap) then I can't see them growing. I read an article (not sure how credible) that stated that 60,000 manufacturing firms are being shut down a week. This is bad for china as their unemployment levels will skyrocket.
5. Savings. People are scaling back and starting to saving money. Currently we save ZERO money. However, lets say that savings rises from 0% to 3%. Since 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending than 3% X 70% = 2.1%. This means that negative GDP can be derived from people simply saving. Right now GDP is negative due to consumers not "ABLE" to spend more. Consumers have peaked, and now credit cards are maxed as well. Not to mention credit card companies are going to yank 2 trillion in credit over next 18 months. Once saving kicks in as fear kicks in...it will add more negative GDP. 10% savings? thats a -7% GDP decline alone.
All of this will lead to massive profit declines for corporations. Which in turn will lower prices even more to the point where they can't be lowered anymore as costs exceed profits. This in turn will force companies to fire more people so they can lower their cost of goods and in turn lower prices more so people can buy. If they don't buy...cycle continues.
If people are fired...then obviously they can't buy so the cycle will continue. It is like being stranded on an island, and eventually you will have to start eating your own flesh to survive.
The governemnt can print and print...however, the rate that wealth is destroyed not sure they can catch up. IMO based on things, inflation is a long ways away.
So based on these factors I think spending will completely collapse. People won't buy anything past basic needs. In my opinion, we haven't seen anything yet.
Not sure if this term exists, but I bet we see "hyper-deflation" in the future not hyperinflation
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
[quote author="FairEconomist" date=1228387681]Depression is *not* a technical term. The only attempt I've seen at a formal definition is the 8 quarters definition, which turns up from time to time like <a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blognov08/depression-spengler11-08.html">here</a>. I saw it once in a online reference-type publication but my google-fu is weak.
I think of it in terms of unemployment and 1873 and 1893 are usually called "Depressions", with unemployment in the mid-teens, depending on whose estimate you use. So my casual definition is unemployment over 13%. I'm not expecting a Great Depression, like in the 30's, but I am expecting something comparable to 1873 or 1893.</blockquote>
My dad was able to speak with my grandmothers aunt in the early 1960's. She was almost 90 years old, and made the observation that the depresson of the 1930's wasn't the bad one. People were still building houses, and there was money around in the 1930's - just not a lot of it. The way she told it, the depression of the late 1880's (I don't know which one and my dad didn't remember either) was a real whopper.
I think of it in terms of unemployment and 1873 and 1893 are usually called "Depressions", with unemployment in the mid-teens, depending on whose estimate you use. So my casual definition is unemployment over 13%. I'm not expecting a Great Depression, like in the 30's, but I am expecting something comparable to 1873 or 1893.</blockquote>
My dad was able to speak with my grandmothers aunt in the early 1960's. She was almost 90 years old, and made the observation that the depresson of the 1930's wasn't the bad one. People were still building houses, and there was money around in the 1930's - just not a lot of it. The way she told it, the depression of the late 1880's (I don't know which one and my dad didn't remember either) was a real whopper.
PANDA_IHB
New member
[quote author="blackvault_cm" date=1228388999][quote author="PANDA" date=1228365869][quote author="awgee" date=1228365392][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1228362198]I don't have any doubt we'll get 8 quarters of negative growth.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.</blockquote>
Panda,
One thing I'm trying to time is when inflation will kick in. This is why for about 3 days I've been doing research anyway possible to come to a conclusion. At first I thought inflation would happen anywhere from late next year to about 2 years from now. This is why I started buying long term puts on the dollar, and buying long term calls on GLD (gold). I think I'm wrong. Tomorrow, I'm going to go with my conclusions and sell them both as I don't think gold will go up anytime soon and I don't know enough yet to make a conclusion whether I should be long on the dollar.
However...here are some tidbits...
1. Unemployment rates continue to rise and considering that about 70% of our GDP is consumer spending it will crush our GDP.
2. Baltic Dry Shipping completely shut down. Demand for grains, ores, etc. is collapsed. We are at record low levels and continue to dig deeper. Here is something scary. Guess what some shipping companies are charging now per hour to ship. 1,000 a day. During high demand for raw materials such as ore, it was as high as 200,000 a day. This is why some shipping firms went from 150 a share to 5.
3. Manufacturing index set new lows. It is at 33 right now which is the lowest ever since it is tracked.
4. People thought China spending will hold things up as they are growing at 11%+. That 11% is being revised down to 8% to 7% and some say it can even get lower. Some say China is full of crap and they are inflating their growth rates. If demand for Chinese goods completely shuts down (which is mainly us buying their crap) then I can't see them growing. I read an article (not sure how credible) that stated that 60,000 manufacturing firms are being shut down a week. This is bad for china as their unemployment levels will skyrocket.
5. Savings. People are scaling back and starting to saving money. Currently we save ZERO money. However, lets say that savings rises from 0% to 3%. Since 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending than 3% X 70% = 2.1%. This means that negative GDP can be derived from people simply saving. Right now GDP is negative due to consumers not "ABLE" to spend more. Consumers have peaked, and now credit cards are maxed as well. Not to mention credit card companies are going to yank 2 trillion in credit over next 18 months. Once saving kicks in as fear kicks in...it will add more negative GDP. 10% savings? thats a -7% GDP decline alone.
All of this will lead to massive profit declines for corporations. Which in turn will lower prices even more to the point where they can't be lowered anymore as costs exceed profits. This in turn will force companies to fire more people so they can lower their cost of goods and in turn lower prices more so people can buy. If they don't buy...cycle continues.
If people are fired...then obviously they can't buy so the cycle will continue. It is like being stranded on an island, and eventually you will have to start eating your own flesh to survive.
The governemnt can print and print...however, the rate that wealth is destroyed not sure they can catch up. IMO based on things, inflation is a long ways away.
So based on these factors I think spending will completely collapse. People won't buy anything past basic needs. In my opinion, we haven't seen anything yet.
Not sure if this term exists, but I bet we see "hyper-deflation" in the future not hyperinflation</blockquote>
BV, let me tell you that Panda is the WORST market timer you will ever meet on the IHB. I have not sold one ounce of my Gold in 2008 and I am down this year. I am long Gold and no matter how much Graphic hates Panda for saying this, I am going to say it again, "The U.S. Paper Trash is going to Crash BIG TIME!" We just don't know when. 3 month 6 month 1 year 2 year? I have no clue. BV, I don't have your gift in trading in and out of stocks like you, therefore i try to predict where things are going to go in the long-term and stick to my guns with my positions. This has all been part of Panda's Master Plan since 2005.
BV, I am not a big fan of GLD as it is paper and dependent someone else owing me this Gold. Try to buy the real stuff and lock it up in vaults outside of this country (i.e. Australia, Asia, Canada etc.) if you can still find any. I think the seriousness of this depression is just starting.
Good luck BV! May God bless all the PKs during the Great Depression II. May the force be with you.
If that's the definition of "depression" sign me up. You have a cite for the critera for calling a "depression"? I'd be interested to see it.</blockquote>
No Vas
<a href="http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell120308.html">Read This</a></blockquote>
If all the trillons and billions of $$$ pumped into the system does not get us out of deflation and into inflation soon, we are all SERIOUSLY IN BIG TROUBLE! DOW is up 174 today... C'mon keep on pumping that money in there. PUMP it in.</blockquote>
Panda,
One thing I'm trying to time is when inflation will kick in. This is why for about 3 days I've been doing research anyway possible to come to a conclusion. At first I thought inflation would happen anywhere from late next year to about 2 years from now. This is why I started buying long term puts on the dollar, and buying long term calls on GLD (gold). I think I'm wrong. Tomorrow, I'm going to go with my conclusions and sell them both as I don't think gold will go up anytime soon and I don't know enough yet to make a conclusion whether I should be long on the dollar.
However...here are some tidbits...
1. Unemployment rates continue to rise and considering that about 70% of our GDP is consumer spending it will crush our GDP.
2. Baltic Dry Shipping completely shut down. Demand for grains, ores, etc. is collapsed. We are at record low levels and continue to dig deeper. Here is something scary. Guess what some shipping companies are charging now per hour to ship. 1,000 a day. During high demand for raw materials such as ore, it was as high as 200,000 a day. This is why some shipping firms went from 150 a share to 5.
3. Manufacturing index set new lows. It is at 33 right now which is the lowest ever since it is tracked.
4. People thought China spending will hold things up as they are growing at 11%+. That 11% is being revised down to 8% to 7% and some say it can even get lower. Some say China is full of crap and they are inflating their growth rates. If demand for Chinese goods completely shuts down (which is mainly us buying their crap) then I can't see them growing. I read an article (not sure how credible) that stated that 60,000 manufacturing firms are being shut down a week. This is bad for china as their unemployment levels will skyrocket.
5. Savings. People are scaling back and starting to saving money. Currently we save ZERO money. However, lets say that savings rises from 0% to 3%. Since 70% of GDP comes from consumer spending than 3% X 70% = 2.1%. This means that negative GDP can be derived from people simply saving. Right now GDP is negative due to consumers not "ABLE" to spend more. Consumers have peaked, and now credit cards are maxed as well. Not to mention credit card companies are going to yank 2 trillion in credit over next 18 months. Once saving kicks in as fear kicks in...it will add more negative GDP. 10% savings? thats a -7% GDP decline alone.
All of this will lead to massive profit declines for corporations. Which in turn will lower prices even more to the point where they can't be lowered anymore as costs exceed profits. This in turn will force companies to fire more people so they can lower their cost of goods and in turn lower prices more so people can buy. If they don't buy...cycle continues.
If people are fired...then obviously they can't buy so the cycle will continue. It is like being stranded on an island, and eventually you will have to start eating your own flesh to survive.
The governemnt can print and print...however, the rate that wealth is destroyed not sure they can catch up. IMO based on things, inflation is a long ways away.
So based on these factors I think spending will completely collapse. People won't buy anything past basic needs. In my opinion, we haven't seen anything yet.
Not sure if this term exists, but I bet we see "hyper-deflation" in the future not hyperinflation</blockquote>
BV, let me tell you that Panda is the WORST market timer you will ever meet on the IHB. I have not sold one ounce of my Gold in 2008 and I am down this year. I am long Gold and no matter how much Graphic hates Panda for saying this, I am going to say it again, "The U.S. Paper Trash is going to Crash BIG TIME!" We just don't know when. 3 month 6 month 1 year 2 year? I have no clue. BV, I don't have your gift in trading in and out of stocks like you, therefore i try to predict where things are going to go in the long-term and stick to my guns with my positions. This has all been part of Panda's Master Plan since 2005.
BV, I am not a big fan of GLD as it is paper and dependent someone else owing me this Gold. Try to buy the real stuff and lock it up in vaults outside of this country (i.e. Australia, Asia, Canada etc.) if you can still find any. I think the seriousness of this depression is just starting.
Good luck BV! May God bless all the PKs during the Great Depression II. May the force be with you.