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If it hits $150-$160 per sqft in Irvine, then I agree it is a good time to purchase investment properties.





But for CK and others who are buying primary residence, it can be painful to wait out this so-called bubble. You might end up waiting for longer than you think to get the price you WANT. For buyers which are making $150-175k per year like CK there should be plenty of good selection in Irvine in the $600-700k range. If you dont mind paying higher tax you can consider new homes like Veranda, or Clarendon in Columbus. Decada in Portola just recently had 15% price cut from last summer is also very nice. Normally new communities have better school and amenities so the extra Mello Roos might be worth it.


I know you probably WANT the $900k homes but there's a considerable risk in waiting for price to come down to meet your WANTs. Just my 2 cents. Good luck.
 
<p>Red: I agree that it is (and will be) very painful to wait for my $900K dream house, and I do not think we will make it the 3-5 years commonly quoted throughout this blog. I'll be 40 in 5 years, and under no circumstance can I see us still renting at that point (although we would have a hell of a downpayment saved). Regardless of where the market is in 2008, that will likely be the year for us. My daughter starts Kindergarten in fall 08, and whether it makes economic sense or not, it is our goal to have a home by then. </p>

<p>The only thing that would keep me out next year is if we still cannot afford a "10 year home" --- something we can live with until high school for our child(ren?). Today, a 10 year house for us is probably about $750-800K in the areas we want to live in. In 12 months (or less), we may very well find those same places right at the $700K we want them. And if so, we'll pull the trigger. And then if the market continues goes down more over the next couple of years, we'll have 10 years to ride it out. </p>
 
<p>Red says: <em> "I know you probably WANT the $900k homes but there's a considerable risk in waiting for price to come down to meet your WANTs. Just my 2 cents. Good luck. "</em></p>

<p>You have a pretty good summary of the current situation, but I disagree with you on the risk element. My wife and I would actually be happy with one of the (non-dream house) properties you mention. We are not trying to find the perfect bottom of the market. But many of the communities you cite have had significant reductions, and I don't see any fundamental signs that those reductions are done yet. Some sales are taking place, but things are still quite sluggish. We're not going to jump in now and take a >10% haircut in the next year-ish. If one buys the $650k place and next spring it's in the mid-five hundreds, that's a bigger risk to me than $900k homes not coming down and having to revert to some sort of plan B.</p>

<p>SCHB</p>
 
If you want a $900k house but can only afford $700k loan, you could bet on the market declining by 20%... 900k - 20% = $720k.





All you have to do is sit and wait. It cost you nothing, and since you can't afford the $900k home anyway, it's irrevelent if it doesn't come down. And I seriously doubt the prices are going to jump in near future.





Find a home you like in Irvine and rent. Take your $$ and invest it elsewhere to make your millions, then bring the $$ back and buy whatever you want in Irvine. Don't depend on your paycheque -- it might not be there next month. Invest in RE in other counties, state, country, overseas. Learn a "back-up" trade that you can practice on weeeknds and make a little extra pocket cash. Learn how to fix cars, repair windshields, cook, whatever. If you lose your job and have trouble finding another, you can use the skills to make some $$ to get by.





You can also extend your look beyond Irvine and find other places that you might like to live. If you don't want to work until 67 to fill uncle sam's coffers, you could retire early in a cheaper country. Many countries offer retirement VISAs, and your dollar can get you a lot further there. You've spent all your life living in one place/country/culture, go out and see the world before you're too old:





http://www.movetopanama.com/ser_visa.html


http://www.costaricapages.com/info/costa-rica-retirement.htm


http://www.plra.gov.ph/


http://www.imi.gov.my/ENG/im_MalaysiaMy2Home.asp


http://www.mfa.go.th/web/12.php#longstay



 
Housing market tends to be emotional and often unpreditable. That's why I think postponing your primary residence needs because you are afraid that price will drop may not be a wise decision. Especially so for buyers who can actually afford decent house in Irvine right now. If you can't afford anything decent then maybe you do have to wait and save up for downpayment.





Owning a house now allow you to settle down and focus on other (more important?) things in your life. But I do understand this is a personal decision so everyone should consider their own risk tolerance.





I personally think Irvine has become a very desirable place to live and probably even more so in the years to come. So even if the housing bubble do burst, the housing price in Irvine may not come down as much. Plus, for a desirable place like Irvine, after bust usually follow boom, so your "instant equity evaporation" is most likely short-lived.
 
<p>Red,</p>

<p>In your opinion, what has changed about Irvine in the last 6 years to make it a better place to live relative to everywhere else than it was before?</p>
 
Dont know if I can really pin point what has changed just in the last 6 years that makes Irvine unique. But I think Irvine always have the potental to be a great city due to its central location in OC.





People nowadays seems to be obsessed with good schools, safe cities, well-planned city, "masterplan" communities. And ... there just seems to be more and more Asian American families who just fall in love with Irvine.





It could be the 2 Ranch 99 markets, it could be the Spectrum for some people, for others it maybe close to work or close to school UCI?





And I always suspect that there are many people relocated from Northern California to Southern California in the early 2000s to find relatively cheaper housing. Perhaps this also helped pushed the price in SoCal in general.





So I am not sure that the strong price appreciation in last 6 years can ever really be justified. And I agree that if the market is intelectual I think the price right now should be at least 20% lower. But it isn't and I dont know if it can ever be. I do think most of the bears argument makes a lot of sense but I am just not so sure how the market will actual play out.
 
From my perspective, Irvine has been declining in quality over the past 6 years. All of the open areas that I used to mountain bike on are now covered in developments. I never see kids playing at the park any more. Empty playgrounds everywhere. It wasn't always like that. Look at Culver or Jeffrey during rush hour. I wonder how bad it will be when Portola and The Great Park get developed?





Nostalgia is a curse.
 
Irvine_native:





Before they put up Tustin Marketplace (1988-1990?) you could still see Anaheim Disney fireworks from Jamboree & Walnut area. :(





IMO Irvine may have been attractive to many businesses because of its low $50/year flat rate business license fee (for non-retail/sales type business) regardless of size, and close proximity to John Wayne airport. The company that I'm working for now purchased about 40 acres from Irvine Company back in early 2000's and is almost done with building our new office When it's complete later this year we'll be relocating about 2,000 - 2,500 employees to Irvine. Many of us jumped the gun and bought properties near the new company office years ago, because it was more affordable and rapidly apperciating back then, and the traffic from north to south on the I-5 is very bad during rush hour. We didn't want to be caught communting in the "wrong direction".





To Irvine natives who saw the city's explosive growth, I think some might not like it. But for those who are moving in from older neighborhoods, many of them find Irvine's relatively new construction and master-planned community to be desirable. I suppose it's kind of like locals disliking immigrants and increased traffic, while immigrants see CA as land of opportunity.



 
momopi - thanks for the insight into business aspect. I have always been curious on how Irvine can attract so many businesses.





irvine_native - I think most people would agree that Great Park is a great addition to Irvine, considering the alternative: airport?
 
<p>momopi: <em>When it's complete later this year we'll be relocating about 2,000 - 2,500 employees to Irvine.</em></p>

<p>Would you by any chance be talking about the Capital Research Group (American Funds)?</p>
 
<p>Please take this "expectations" survey... Results will be posted to the forum soon!</p>

<p><a href="http://www.zoomerang.com/survey.zgi?p=WEB2265RPA6SQQ">http://www.zoomerang.com/survey.zgi?p=WEB2265RPA6SQQ</a> </p>

<p>Just three basic questions to gauge what people are expecting to do if ready to purchase a house now....</p>

<p>Thanks,</p>

<p>crucialtaunt</p>
 
<p>My wife thinks I'm paranoid for thinking this up ... but since my opinion of RE salespeople approximates used car salespeople ...</p>

<p>Let's say you walk in to a sales center, ready to negotiate for your home ...</p>

<p>You sit down and are ready to lop off 20% off the sales price.</p>

<p>The salesperson then tells you, the people in the next room, well, they signed up to buy lot xyz, but if you don't decide to buy then they will take your home.</p>

<p>Little do you know, the people in the next room were paid $N dollars to sit there in the next room for 3 hours as you tried to figure out if you wanted to buy that home (while pressured by the apparent buyers in the next room). In the end, because you are "married" to that home, you buy and don't get to negotiate the price because you don't want the "other guys" to take it from you ... </p>

<p>(though the "other guys" really didn't want that home or your home, for that matter, they were hired hands)</p>

<p>I could never prove something like this in the end ... but it's my job to think of funky paranoid scenarios like this.</p>

<p>Has anyone ever heard this happen?</p>
 
Fraychielle - I think you may be right. A while back, we sat down to negotiate a price (a reasonable offer, I think, but the builder was holding out hoping for a bigger fool than me). While in the sales office talking to one salesperson, the other salesperson yells out to her, "so and so called to 'reserve' lot xyz." How coincidental! We paid no mind to it, and felt comfortable walking away with the price we felt was reasonable. I didn't feel pressured that I would "lose" the opportunity to buy the house because I feel that opportunities will be plentiful with the recent spate on subprime loans.
 
<p>I just want to say that it is refreshing to know that there are others out there that have fiscal restraint whether you have enough money or not to buy. In a time where we see our friends and relatives taking a 100% financing or cashing out their 401Ks and kids' college funds just to buy that dream house, we were wondering what was wrong with us, why are we still renting? It's nice to know that we are not crazy and don't have to feel pressured to jump on the have to buy bandwagon.</p>

<p>On a side note, my spouse and I were watching Catch Me if You Can the other day and Christopher Walken's character had to go to the bank in person and try to convince the bank representative that he would credible borrower. He didn't get the loan. Could you imagine where the housing market would be today if that were still the practice?</p>
 
Irvine Wanna Be,





I posted this on another thread, but based on your comment above, you should find this entertaining:





<a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xt0c6_snldontbuystuff" set="yes">Don't Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford</a>
 
<p>Irvine Renter:</p>

<p>We got a good laugh off that skit. It's hilarious. Thanks.</p>

<p>I do want to say that is also commendable of people who have fiscal restraint even when they have enough money to put 20% down but feel that the market is so out of whack that they don't want to contribute to the bubble. </p>
 
yeah it's so screwy. to buy, it's pretty much 3000/month for a condo. but for 3000/month you can rent a big ole house. so which one is better? you own the condo, but you could live in much more by renting...
 
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