<p>IrvineMom - For what ever it is worth, I am not an economist... but the whole conversation about college degrees (and advanced degrees) weighing people down while others seemingly fell into the bull housing market (taking jobs as mortgage brokers, real estate agents, etc.) without any education - and now drive fancy cars, well let's just say I found it a little amusing. It reminded me of the point that I think my professor was trying to make - sometimes it has a lot less to do with brains than luck.</p>
<p>As for my take on housing. It is all very relative. I've previously discussed making an offer on a 952K home in Irvine... only to be stopped (in retrospective "saved") by a contingency clause (relating to the timely sale of my own home). No bull, 6 weeks later the home I was pulling my hair out trying to buy was being sold in the "next phase" of a new development for about 85K less. To me, a 9% drop in price in less than two months seemed (and still seems) very significant. Moreover, I saw the builder starting the marketing of the next phases in "sub-phases," a builders ploy to reduce housing inventory on the market - but a ploy that probably doesn't change their view point - since they are already committed to the development.</p>
<p>Where will prices go? Hard to tell. I suppose that market psychology has a lot to do with it. If everyone begins to feel that the housing will leave them behind... you could see a rush to buy... which just accelerates the speculation and increasing home prices. A little like tonights lottery. Most people don't pay a lot of attention to a 50 million jackpot.... but now that its up to 300 million, everyone is racing to buy tickets at the last second... which will make the final lottery pot even larger... there is an air of "last chance" that gets people all worked up... and two years ago, that psychology contributed to buyers making offers tens of thousands of dollars over asking on the first day a house was listed...</p>
<p>I know that in reality, a lottery ticket is far more affordable, but the psychology is similiar (and no, I am not a psychologist). At the end of the day however, I think (and hope) that prices will relax, mitigate, solidify (choose your favorite economic terms) simply because too few households make in excess of 200K per year. And for those of us that do, even then, a 950K home is a real stretch if you haven't been in the game for a number of years (read: if you don't have lots of equity and need a super jumbo loan).</p>
<p>Until then, I'll stay tuned for the next installment of "Irvine Renter and the Irvine Housing Market." But for now, I'll stop hijacking this "fraud" post and let others get back to topic.</p>
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