iceeman,
The market is unpredictable. No one can predict the future of the market. However,
You are not unpredictable to yourself. You can predict the amount of happiness you will have by fullfilling your dream. And, the amount of unhappiness you will have if you don't (or you do and then the bottom drops out.)
This is the advice that I keep seeing on all the other discussions. So I will give it to you here. (it's just advice, I'm not a real estate agent or anything).
Good idea to wait until the end of the year. That is when builders are really desperate for sales to make their stockholders happy.
You have three huge things going for you.
1. YOu are non-contingent buyer
2. YOu have excellent credit.
3. You have fluid funds . ???
Around Oct., Nov. go looking around. Try to find a new home that the builders are desperate to get rid of, but can't. When you find one that you like (IMO there will be plenty at the end of '07). Make an offer on the home.
Keep the following things in mind.
1. Look for Broker Co-op. Basically, most places now will pay a broker up to 5% ($20,000 on a $400,000 home) back for bringing in a buyer who actually closes escrow. It should be easy to find a broker who will represent you for small fee, and then have them kick you back the rest of the money after closing. - Just don't ever give the sales offices your info when you walk in, because otherwise, the broker won't be able to represent you when you and your broker "walk in for the first time". (My sister-in law was going to do this for me for free and kick me back 45 grand!)
2. Don't just accept the incentives they are dishing out. Many have been able to negotiate 10% reductions in price, closing costs, landscaping, flooring upgrades, window coverings, etc. Be brave, when you make your offer. Give them permission to check out your credit, bring bank statements to show your fluid assets. Let them see how serious you are and that you are willing to close by the end of the fiscal year. Don't consider an offer too low. The worst they can do is say no. Then what have you lost? Remember They have everything to lose ( a well positioned buyer), you have everything to gain (a new home somewhere).
In this market, you don't have to pay the sticker price. Try to negotiate as much as possible so that you can minimize your losses if the real estate in Irvine takes a dump.
3. Look at homes in and a little above your price range. Basically, if you are looking for a townhome, you'll get stuck with 2 association fees. (neither of which is tax deductible. )
If you can find a home that is more detached condo style (read this as ally-loaded garage), you will have one association fee, and higher taxes. (taxes, even mello-roos are deductible.) The lack of a second association fee, might make the townhome the same payment as the detached condo. But you will get a better ride-off, have more space, and easier resale with home number 2.
A guy of your credit rating can get away with the following debt to income ratio: total monthly mortgage payment (incl taxes, association, insurance) + car payment + student loan payment +any other monthly payments = should be about 40-43% of your total gross salary. Generally, brokers don't like you to exceed a 33% debt to income ratio, but in my experience, good credit helps a lot.
Good choice to buy in Irvine. This place will always be in demand. Also, consider this, if the market takes a dump, and you have recently bought a place, your loss is not actual because you have not sold the place yet. It just means you have to live in it longer to ride out the storm. (keep this in mind when you are choosing your loan program. It's tempting to take a teaser rate of 3%, but in this market, I'd go for safe, and take a 5/1 arm atleast.)
As I said, the market is unpredictable. For example, I bought a house in 2000 for 360,000. My agent told me in about 7 years, I should be able to sell it for 420,000. In 2003, I sold the house for $600,000. and I told everyone, that thing will never be worth a million. Last week, I looked online and saw my old neighbors house (same as my old house) selling for a million!. The market is unpredictable. So just make yourself happy. No body else is going to do that for you. It's your money, so spend it the way you want.