Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2024 to 2025

Where is Irvine housing headed from June 2024 to June 2025?

  • Total voters
    30
  • Poll closed .
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irvinehomeowner

irvinehomeowner

Well-known member
I'm a little late but it looks like Ups had it:

Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2023 to 2024

So the first poll we were close... most responded flat to down and if I'm looking at the trending charts properly, it looks more like flat to up. https://www.talkirvine.com/threads/poll-irvine-housing-prediction-june-2022.18420/ So what do we think for next year? Same rules as last year's...
www.talkirvine.com

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Latest Redfin chart (only goes to May but you can see where it's heading)

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I removed the 50% up/down choices because no one really votes for those seriously and if you think so, use the Other vote.

It's going to come down some time right? Pandemic didn't work... high rates had no effect... maybe a new President?

Maybe this year will be the year of pain?
 
I notice on the polls the number of voters keeps dwindling every year, as is the activity on TI.

I think it's because it's no longer a question about the strength of Irvine real estate. There used to be several detractors but with the historical evidence of how Irvine performs there really isn't a basis to argue against any more.

I'm probably the only one who keeps saying how crazy Irvine prices are.

I've had a few friends cash out of Irvine, bought elsewhere (out of state) or are renting nearby. I have considered the second option but it's tough to give up such a low mortgage in exchange for capital gains taxes. Maybe when I qualify for some senior tax breaks.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I notice on the polls the number of voters keeps dwindling every year, as is the activity on TI.

I think it's because it's no longer a question about the strength of Irvine real estate. There used to be several detractors but with the historical evidence of how Irvine performs there really isn't a basis to argue against any more.

I'm probably the only one who keeps saying how crazy Irvine prices are.

I've had a few friends cash out of Irvine, bought elsewhere (out of state) or are renting nearby. I have considered the second option but it's tough to give up such a low mortgage in exchange for capital gains taxes. Maybe when I qualify for some senior tax breaks.
Click to expand...
Rent it out. Never sell unless you absolutely need to
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I notice on the polls the number of voters keeps dwindling every year, as is the activity on TI.

I think it's because it's no longer a question about the strength of Irvine real estate. There used to be several detractors but with the historical evidence of how Irvine performs there really isn't a basis to argue against any more.

I'm probably the only one who keeps saying how crazy Irvine prices are.

I've had a few friends cash out of Irvine, bought elsewhere (out of state) or are renting nearby. I have considered the second option but it's tough to give up such a low mortgage in exchange for capital gains taxes. Maybe when I qualify for some senior tax breaks.
Click to expand...
What Senior tax breaks are there?
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I'm a little late but it looks like Ups had it:

Poll: Irvine Housing Prediction June 2023 to 2024

So the first poll we were close... most responded flat to down and if I'm looking at the trending charts properly, it looks more like flat to up. https://www.talkirvine.com/threads/poll-irvine-housing-prediction-june-2022.18420/ So what do we think for next year? Same rules as last year's...
www.talkirvine.com

View attachment 9878

Latest Redfin chart (only goes to May but you can see where it's heading)

View attachment 9877

I removed the 50% up/down choices because no one really votes for those seriously and if you think so, use the Other vote.

It's going to come down some time right? Pandemic didn't work... high rates had no effect... maybe a new President?

Maybe this year will be the year of pain?
Click to expand...
Year of pain
 
I hope things stay flat, at most, as a prospective buyer. I'm betting that interest rates won't get cut this year (and not in q1 next) like many are anticipating. Inflation is still at elevated levels.
 
firstblud said:
I hope things stay flat, at most, as a prospective buyer. I'm betting that interest rates won't get cut this year (and not in q1 next) like many are anticipating. Inflation is still at elevated levels.
Click to expand...
You'll lose that bet for sure. There's almost 100% chance that Sep cut will happen. The question is, is there going to be 2 or 3 cuts, not just 1?

2.6% is hardly elevated. The Fed's target is 2%, but they can't wait until it actually reaches 2%. It would be too late by then, just like it was way too late when they started rate increase.
 
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Remember: Fed rate cuts do not mean mortgage rates will fall. Low rates are inflationary, which are bad for mortgage backed securities (MBS). If the Fed Funds Rate went to zero, ARM loan rates would drop first, but Fixed Rate Loans would lag because of the wave of refinances that would start. MBS dealers (the entities who really move mortgage rates up or down) don't want their sweet 7 percent rate MBS bundles wiped out and be forced to accept 3 percent rate new loans in their security pools. Bear in mind that low mortgage rates often means higher demand for housing which could equate to upward home price movement. MAX ROI BAY-BEE!

Mortgage rates will come down at some point but don't expect them to improve overnight for the better based on what The Fed does.
 
sgip said:
Remember: Fed rate cuts do not mean mortgage rates will fall. Low rates are inflationary, which are bad for mortgage backed securities (MBS). If the Fed Funds Rate went to zero, ARM loan rates would drop first, but Fixed Rate Loans would lag because of the wave of refinances that would start. MBS dealers (the entities who really move mortgage rates up or down) don't want their sweet 7 percent rate MBS bundles wiped out and be forced to accept 3 percent rate new loans in their security pools. Bear in mind that low mortgage rates often means higher demand for housing which could equate to upward home price movement. MAX ROI BAY-BEE!

Mortgage rates will come down at some point but don't expect them to improve overnight for the better based on what The Fed does.
Click to expand...
I track it here https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mbs
 
sgip said:
Remember: Fed rate cuts do not mean mortgage rates will fall. Low rates are inflationary, which are bad for mortgage backed securities (MBS). If the Fed Funds Rate went to zero, ARM loan rates would drop first, but Fixed Rate Loans would lag because of the wave of refinances that would start. MBS dealers (the entities who really move mortgage rates up or down) don't want their sweet 7 percent rate MBS bundles wiped out and be forced to accept 3 percent rate new loans in their security pools. Bear in mind that low mortgage rates often means higher demand for housing which could equate to upward home price movement. MAX ROI BAY-BEE!

Mortgage rates will come down at some point but don't expect them to improve overnight for the better based on what The Fed does.
Click to expand...
why would mortage rates come down when the MBS market has such juicy yield? Property used to be difficult to buy for most but Ownership Society and ZIRP and Fannie/Freddie changed that. I personally see a return to that era with very high prices making property unaffordable for the masses. For the record Lansner said a couple months back in his column only 11% of OC residents can qualify for the median priced house.
 
OCtoSV said:
why would mortage rates come down when the MBS market has such juicy yield? Property used to be difficult to buy for most but Ownership Society and ZIRP and Fannie/Freddie changed that. I personally see a return to that era with very high prices making property unaffordable for the masses. For the record Lansner said a couple months back in his column only 11% of OC residents can qualify for the median priced house.
Click to expand...
Iol, buy buy buy, and buy even more!
 
OCtoSV said:
why would mortage rates come down when the MBS market has such juicy yield? Property used to be difficult to buy for most but Ownership Society and ZIRP and Fannie/Freddie changed that. I personally see a return to that era with very high prices making property unaffordable for the masses. For the record Lansner said a couple months back in his column only 11% of OC residents can qualify for the median priced house.
Click to expand...
We’ve been shopping for a starter home as future holding for our high schooler.

JIMHO, the housing market is fundamentally broken. The decades of under building 10K housing units in OC, and another 50K across the five county southland.

How much are starter jobs paying for the kids with UC level educations? How long do they need to be rent poor while living here to earn it?

Plumber in the cash economy looking better every day. That cash economy getting bigger every day too.
 
nosuchreality said:
We’ve been shopping for a starter home as future holding for our high schooler.

JIMHO, the housing market is fundamentally broken. The decades of under building 10K housing units in OC, and another 50K across the five county southland.

How much are starter jobs paying for the kids with UC level educations? How long do they need to be rent poor while living here to earn it?

Plumber in the cash economy looking better every day. That cash economy getting bigger every day too.
Click to expand...
see #11 - European countries showed us you can rent for lifetime, there is no promoise everyone will own a home/house during its lifetime...
 
irvinehomeowner said:
I'm probably the only one who keeps saying how crazy Irvine prices are.

I've had a few friends cash out of Irvine, bought elsewhere (out of state) or are renting nearby. I have considered the second option but it's tough to give up such a low mortgage in exchange for capital gains taxes. Maybe when I qualify for some senior tax breaks.
Click to expand...

I'm sure there are more than a few here who thinks Irvine RE prices are off the wall, including myself. I purchased my first condo in Irvine in 1999 and ended up buying a house elsewhere, just to afford a single story 4 bed house with yard for my potatoes and tomatoes.

Actually my first visit to Irvine to look at real estate was 1989 with my parents, but that's another story.

If you look near Irvine today, you can find better deals in Coto de Caza/Trabuco Canyon area for a 4 bed house. This has not escaped flipper's notice and this guy is trying to make a buck after fresh coat of paint + staging furniture:

 
momopi said:
I'm sure there are more than a few here who thinks Irvine RE prices are off the wall, including myself. I purchased my first condo in Irvine in 1999 and ended up buying a house elsewhere, just to afford a single story 4 bed house with yard for my potatoes and tomatoes.

Actually my first visit to Irvine to look at real estate was 1989 with my parents, but that's another story.

If you look near Irvine today, you can find better deals in Coto de Caza/Trabuco Canyon area for a 4 bed house. This has not escaped flipper's notice and this guy is trying to make a buck after fresh coat of paint + staging furniture:

Click to expand...
$50K price drop - knife catcher at this price. Pretty nice property and lot though. It will go lower.
 
OCtoSV said:
$50K price drop - knife catcher at this price. Pretty nice property and lot though. It will go lower.
Click to expand...
Better properties are already about $100k below Creek View's recent "price improvement".


Too bad for the seller that this Temu quality realtor listed the property as 3/3 when it's really a 4/3. Gotta read the lengthy description to find out that the downstairs office is usually a bedroom. On-Line home shoppers don't look first at the description, but key in "4br" as a starting minimum. Oh well.
 
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sgip said:
Better properties are already about $100k below Creek View's recent "price improvement".


Too bad for the seller that this Temu quality realtor listed the property as 3/3 when it's really a 4/3. Gotta read the lengthy description to find out that the downstairs office is usually a bedroom. On-Line home shoppers don't look first at the description, but key in "4br" as a starting minimum. Oh well.
Click to expand...

From the listing: "GOLF COURSE VIEWS LIKE NO OTHER!"

Yes indeed! And think of the cash flow opportunities from reselling golf balls that land in the back yard! Or maybe it's cash flow even after factoring in the cost of repairs due to golf balls hitting the house.
 
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