Orchard Hills - Capella by Taylor Morrison

[nyc to oc]

The people who are buying at $1.5 to >$2 million price points may not care as much about being in IUSD.  They may just send their kids to private.

 

[OC troll]

The people who are buying at $1.5 to >$2 million price points may not care as much about being in IUSD.  They may just send their kids to private.

nyc to oc...back to feeling poor again  :-\

 

[Perspective]

A Capella Plan 2 floorplan is very similar layout to a Strada Plan 3, but it's ~365 sq ft larger. You might expect the Capella Plan 2's base price to be $150K higher ($450 per multiple?), but it's less than $50K today.

 

[hello]

A Capella Plan 2 floorplan is very similar layout to a Strada Plan 3, but it's ~365 sq ft larger. You might expect the Capella Plan 2's base price to be $150K higher ($450 per multiple?), but it's less than $50K today.

Hence why Laguna is saying Strada is overpriced and doesnt expect much appreciation...

Or you can say Capella is underpriced and set to appreciate much more. 

I think both are overpriced and will avoid them both. 

 

[Perspective]

A Capella Plan 2 floorplan is very similar layout to a Strada Plan 3, but it's ~365 sq ft larger. You might expect the Capella Plan 2's base price to be $150K higher ($450 per multiple?), but it's less than $50K today.

Compare this to January 2015, when Strada Plan 3s were starting at ~$1,125,000 and Capella Plan 2s were starting at ~$1,425,000.

 

[Laguna21]

A Capella Plan 2 floorplan is very similar layout to a Strada Plan 3, but it's ~365 sq ft larger. You might expect the Capella Plan 2's base price to be $150K higher ($450 per multiple?), but it's less than $50K today.

And as hello said, exactly why I said Capella is a bargain vs Strada. The #'s will speak for themselves in 5-10 years time.

Additionally, you were doing the comparisons of "SOLD" Strada homes vs "FOR SALE" Capella homes.

You need to include a list of "SOLD" for both Capella and Strada over the last 2 months to make a proper assessment in the disparity of price.

 

[Perspective]

Is it possible, that the many dozens of buyers over the last year have pushed these prices to where they stand today, and that the current disparity reflects accurate market value?

 

[Laguna21]

I'm not doubting current market value, I'm just saying that my opinion is that between Strada and Capella, the latter seems like a bargain. Whether or not that holds true in 5-10 years time, who knows! Nobody predicted that La Vita would sell extraordinarily well, and people did not predict the huge increase in Laguna Altura either.

But that's the beauty of it, you will never know until time tells what will happen to the values of these homes a decade from now, and there are too many variables that come into play that affect the values to be able to predict anything with absolute certainty.

Either way, I'm sure both developments will increase, it will be interesting to see if they follow the same curve or if one appreciates more than the other.

 

[Irvine or Bust]

They're not exactly clones of one another.  For example, my personal preference, like the strata plan 3 over Capella.  Especially since the Capella upstairs loft is tiny.  I know folks who don't care about upstairs loft and such, but the floor plans are not exactly the same even though the size may be close.

Personally I think the loft sizes are a joke in both Strada Plan 3 and Capella Plan 2. The Strada Plan 3 model barely fits a 40 inch TV on the angled wall. I saw a few toddler kids sitting there when I toured the model and they filled it up, can't imagine a few teenagers being comfortable. The Capella Plan 2 loft is shallow and not position well to have a decent set up. Can't fit a couch without an awkward placement of the TV. Out of the two developments the only usable loft space where you can throw a 70 inch TV with a couch is the Capella Plan 3.

 

[Perspective]

I'm not doubting current market value, I'm just saying that my opinion is that between Strada and Capella, the latter seems like a bargain. Whether or not that holds true in 5-10 years time, who knows! Nobody predicted that La Vita would sell extraordinarily well, and people did not predict the huge increase in Laguna Altura either.

But that's the beauty of it, you will never know until time tells what will happen to the values of these homes a decade from now, and there are too many variables that come into play that affect the values to be able to predict anything with absolute certainty.

Either way, I'm sure both developments will increase, it will be interesting to see if they follow the same curve or if one appreciates more than the other.

Agreed. Pricing is such now, that it would make deciding between the two a much more difficult question today, than it was for most of 2015. There are some people who absolutely love gates, and others who love IUSD. I value cul-de-sacs and set-backs much bigger than 10'.

 

[OC troll]

Speaking of 10' set backs, my buddy told me 117 Long Fence is putting in a pool with water fall. It just closed escrow Oct, that's pretty quick. Talk about money in the bank.

 

[Laguna21]

:O Nice on the pool with waterfall!

@Perspective: Totally agree - if anything, I think the neighborhood layout at Strada wins for sure, much more inviting, and just a better layout overall.

Perhaps people prefer IUSD, and the extra square footage & gates aren't really worth the additional price over at Capella.

 

[jyeh74]

People trip too much about IUSD vs TUSD.  You're really splitting hairs as both are pretty good.

If you want send your kids to private school.

 

[Irvine or Bust]

:O Nice on the pool with waterfall!

@Perspective: Totally agree - if anything, I think the neighborhood layout at Strada wins for sure, much more inviting, and just a better layout overall.

Perhaps people prefer IUSD, and the extra square footage & gates aren't really worth the additional price over at Capella.

Wonder how the 25% of strada that are zoned for Tustin going to do in 5-10 yrs. They have no IUSD, no gate, and still small. Are they going to be the comp killers? That's just odd how that community is split.

 

[Laguna21]

Actually I think Irvineboy is right - because that doesn't explain the stellar sales over at La Vita which are TUSD - I would think most people who can afford 1.4-1.5 mil and above homes could care less about the School district, as both are very good.

I just think Capella happens to be in the awkward price range where people are either choosing above or below the price mark, and too much competition in that price range at this time, as well as slow-down of sales in that price range too as some realtors have said.

Any realtors want to chime in & give their input!?

 

[gasman]

People trip too much about IUSD vs TUSD.  You're really splitting hairs as both are pretty good.

If you want send your kids to private school.

Not all TUSD is created equal.  Given the history of poor decisions at TUSD, I think this is a completely valid concern.  The residents in Tustin Legacy (Columbus Square, now Greenwood) have to jump through hoops to avoid sending their kids to the assigned schools.  Heritage was built years ago with MR money and is barely going to open Fall 2016.  No guarantees on when middle and high schools in Legacy will open.

For the OH residents, OH elementary (a TUSD school) was supposed to open one grade per year.  As far as I've read, they won't be opening any new grades next year, nor have they the year prior.

TUSD and city of Tustin are in constant legal battles with each other.

None of this instills much confidence in TUSD, which is why it matters.

Now, if you want to just look at the numbers, sure, OH elementary and Beckman compare well with IUSD schools, but you only have to peel back a couple more layers to see how dysfunctional the TUSD board is with their management of budgets, headcounts, resident feedback, and even their relationship with the city of Tustin.

So, bottom line...does it matter?  Yes, absolutely.  And no, absolutely not.

 

[DrTravel]

Looks like the "death house" finally sold after 7 months and a $141,665 price haircut.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/114-Long-Fence-92602/home/87555355

 

[DrTravel]

Here's the latest pricing for Capella. Since I posted the same info back on 12/25/15 here's what has changed. No new homes have been started. Of the 18 that were shown as available back then I believe 10 have sold (not 100% sure what the yellow sites indicates) so there are now 8 homes available.

For pricing, two homes are shown on this price sheet and the 12/25 price sheet.

Homesite 53 which dropped in price from $1,408,413 to $1,330,817
Homesite 19 which dropped in price from $1,492,000 to $1,442,710

 

[AW]

I think those yellow lots are last future phases that's not even started? Compared to the dark blue ones which are in construction? Haven't been there in a while as well.

And those price dropped homes are also in MLS, good chance you can submit an offer to get tens of thousands off as well

 

[DrTravel]

I think those yellow lots are last future phases that's not even started? Compared to the dark blue ones which are in construction? Haven't been there in a while as well.

And those price dropped homes are also in MLS, good chance you can submit an offer to get tens of thousands off as well

dark blue = future (pretty much the last phase)
green = available
red = in escrow

Yellow lots use to be green, so not sure now. Maybe they put them on hold. Didn't want to stick around and ask more questions - place is kind of depressing.