Orchard Hills a good buy?

[Liar Loan]

Rumor was he actually bought sometime near his last days with IHB but I wasn't reading at that time and so not sure if he disclosed that.

He did not buy until recently.  Without a steady, predictable source of income for so many years I don't think he felt comfortable buying until he had a job, plus it would have been difficult to qualify without a W-2.  Anyway, he was already telling people to buy because with rates being so low, it was still cheaper than renting in many areas.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Rumor was he actually bought sometime near his last days with IHB but I wasn't reading at that time and so not sure if he disclosed that.

He did not buy until recently.  Without a steady, predictable source of income for so many years I don't think he felt comfortable buying until he had a job, plus it would have been difficult to qualify without a W-2.  Anyway, he was already telling people to buy because with rates being so low, it was still cheaper than renting in many areas.

Hah... sounds like it's more personal with you than me. I don't really know Larry and I don't think he remembers me.

I heard he bought a few years ago but again, that's a rumor.

 

[Liar Loan]

Rumor was he actually bought sometime near his last days with IHB but I wasn't reading at that time and so not sure if he disclosed that.

He did not buy until recently.  Without a steady, predictable source of income for so many years I don't think he felt comfortable buying until he had a job, plus it would have been difficult to qualify without a W-2.  Anyway, he was already telling people to buy because with rates being so low, it was still cheaper than renting in many areas.

Hah... sounds like it's more personal with you than me. I don't really know Larry and I don't think he remembers me.

I heard he bought a few years ago but again, that's a rumor.

As I said earlier on the thread, he and I have been communicating through e-mail sporadically.  It just so happens that I sold my HB condo and so he shared that they bought a house.  What I meant by personal is that it seems like he offended you on some personal level.  It seemed that way when he shut OCHN down and again on this thread, but if that's not the case I'll take your word for it.

 

[zubs]

IHO got influenced by IHB to wait about 1.5 years too long to buy so I'd say he's about $150,000 upset at Larry.
But it's mostly dumb luck so don't be mad.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

IHO got influenced by IHB to wait about 1.5 years too long to buy so I'd say he's about $150,000 upset at Larry.
But it's mostly dumb luck so don't be mad.

This is actually partly true but not due to IHB.

We were looking at 3CGWs for about $750k (and we found a few). We waited too long but that was due to our own pickiness.

It did cost us more but then the home we sold also went up so it covered. The better scenario would have been to keep the home as a rental if we bought at the $750k range but I?m actually glad we sold it.

 

[Liar Loan]

This is actually partly true but not due to IHB.

There was a period of time around 2014 when a lot of commenters would show up at OCHN and say they regretted listening to Larry (and other bears) because they waited too long to buy.  Not only did it cost them money, but for some they felt priced out of the market because they waited too long. 

There was some sincere regret going on there, but the thing I disagree with is blaming a blogger for your own decision not to buy.  Everybody is responsible for the choices they make and it was interesting to see people scapegoating him like that.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I don?t blame Larry for our decisions but I do think he?s got a skewed view of his opinions.

I can?t link to it here in my phone but check out our exchange on 4/23/13 on OCHN and you?ll know why my regard for him is not as high as others. One of his responses accused me of trying to run him off and he told me to run back to TI.

 

[Happiness]

Larry famously predicted on IHB in 2010 that Orchard Hills SFR's would be in the $700,000s in 2014.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Here is the link:
https://homesrealestateforsale.com/faith-in-home-price-appreciation-is-religion-in-california/

In the comments section, I called him out on using the term "faith" in the article because that's not really what the original writer was saying. And more often when anyone disagreed with Larry/IrvineRenter, he usually responds with deflection or dismissal. When i called him out on his "faith", he claimed that he was right and the bulls were "totally" wrong, which wasn't the case as we all know now. He backtracks a little ("within a margin of error"). I've copied the comments here for posterity and if anyone is too lazy to follow the link.

That wasn't the only time either me or someone else disagreed and then he pulled out his "I've done the analysis and blogged about this correctly for X years" rhetoric as the blanket defense. Notice he didn't even address my last comment, and that's my issue... discuss the truth, not your version of it.

irvinehomeowner says:
April 23, 2013 at 10:21 am
Seems like IrvineRenter has misread that comment. Not only did they not mention ?faith? initially but just merely the knowledge that real estate (among many other things) is cyclical.

Taking the whole religion angle is hyperbolic but I understand the need to create polarizing content.

If I recall correctly, IR was incorrect in his % of drop for Irvine real estate and even corrected himself with a % rise in prices while others were saying it would drop more or remain flat. What drove his ?faith? when he made that call?

As far as I can tell (at least in the range I am shopping), prices are going up and that?s due to record low inventory and record low interest rates? not religion.

IrvineRenter says himself that ?we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, mortgage rates are likely to rise? (sounds familiar)? is that ?faith??

Mike says:
April 23, 2013 at 10:49 am
we are at the bottom of the interest rate cycle, mortgage rates are likely to rise? (sounds familiar)? is that ?faith??

I think that using the historical average for mortgage rates of 6% to 9%, rates are low. No way in free market system would an investor accept that rate of return over the extend time period, these low rates are artificial. In addition, in if Fed keeps printing after January 2014 the difficulty of clean Fed exit increases. There is a real probably that rates will return to historic norms.

Using analysis is one thing and basing an opinion on that analysis is not faith But buyers are stating that home values will increase without using analysis. ?It?s Southern California so real estate values only go up?. Now that statement is faith and that what you are seeing right now.

irvinehomeowner says:
April 23, 2013 at 11:00 am
Mike said:

?Using analysis is one thing and basing an opinion on that analysis is not faith But buyers are stating that home values will increase without using analysis. ?It?s Southern California so real estate values only go up?. Now that statement is faith and that what you are seeing right now.?

I agree with you? but that?s not what the quoted comment IR is basing today?s post on is saying. Saying that ?OC real estate is desirable? is based on historical analysis if you compare prices to surrounding counties like the Inland Empire. It?s just like saying ?beach properties are desirable? or ?Irvine is desirable?? that?s not faith? that?s truth.

If you look at the last 3 bubbles, in the OC, wherever the bottom settles, it?s usually higher than the previous one. Inflation alone will guarantee that prices will not remain ?flat?. So for someone to say that real estate values only go up? that?s really not far from the truth (as it does rise and ebb? but usually rises higher)? you don?t need faith to see that? just facts.

Mike says:
April 23, 2013 at 11:43 am
True, but in think in the 21 Century OC is going to be worse off than last 100 years.

*Global Warming tax will increase energy prices. $6 gas prices by 2020 with doesn?t include changes in the market prices.
*Huge California welfare rolls
*increasing medical costs (although every state will experience this)
*$200 billion funded pension liabilities
*Hostile business environment
*Lack of middle class
*Many cash businesses. (IRS will stop this, task force is forming in Arcadia)

Maybe I?m just too negative but other states are seeing this and trying to business away from CA. Some properties at the beach will always be expensive, but I just don?t know about the rest. There might be some downside we have never seen.

Irvine Renter says:
April 23, 2013 at 11:49 am
irvinehomeowner,

I have faith in careful analysis and sound reasoning. If the analysis points to rising prices, I say so (like I do now). If it points to falling prices, I say so (like I did in 2007). It?s not faith; It?s analysis.

I?ve had six years of daily writing on this blog and the IHB. You can?t revise history when Google is your friend. I was right, and you were wrong. Never forget the bulls and bubble deniers were completely and totally wrong. Sorry, but it is what it is.

Your attempts to undermine me are laughable. I?m sure will you will have more success over at Talk Irvine. You should go run me down over there. It will probably increase my reader base.

irvinehomeowner says:
April 23, 2013 at 12:21 pm
You just proved my point.

Who is to say that the comment you are quoting isn?t based on analysis? For all you know, the person who wrote that is in the same business as you are and that is his/her take on it. I didn?t read anywhere in that comment that they had ?faith? that ?real estate always goes up?? just that it doesn?t stay ?flat?, which you seem to agree with.

So for you to claim that the comment is based on faith is a leap of your own? not theirs.

And I?m not sure what you are talking about when you say that you are right and I am wrong, your article you linked to deals in absolutes which you can?t possibly be immune to. I?d like to believe I?m more neutral than you are and from where I?m standing you?ve been just as ?wrong? about rising interest rates, government intervention, tsunami of shadow inventory, crash of OARMs as the bulls have been about price retention. You?ve even admitted your estimated drops did not come to fruition due to government manipulation. Google is my friend too, are you now claiming that you have been ?completely ant totally? right? Now that?s revisionist history.

And with all due respect? I am not trying to undermine you? I?m trying to provide another point of view. That?s what spurs discussion? when there are opposing opinions. No one is trying to ?run you down?? everyone still has the highest respect for you and the years of work you have put into the old IHB. So please don?t try to disguise honest dialogue as something else? not everyone HAS to agree with your opinion (and I do agree with most of yours).

Irvine Renter says:
April 23, 2013 at 1:23 pm
I like a vibrant discussion, and I apologize if I misinterpreted your statements as an attempt to undermine me. I?ll let others read your comment and decide for themselves.

I don?t claim I was completely and totally right about everything. But I was right about the big picture of why home prices would fall, I was right about the timing of when home prices would fall, and I was right about how far home prices would fall to within a small margin of error. Contrast that with what the bulls believed from 2004 to 2007.

Further, your contention that I was wrong about a tsunami of shadow inventory or the crash of Option ARMs is incorrect. The Option ARMs did blow up in large numbers. Default rates on those loans are in excess of 40% even today. We did see a tsunami of shadow inventory thanks in large part to the Option ARMs. In fact, it was so bad they had to change the accounting rules to stop the flood. The crash would have been far worse than I predicted if not for a completely unprecedented and unpredictable change in the rules that NOBODY saw coming more than six months before it was implemented.

And just for the record, that inventory is still out there, but now it?s being held in the clouds. No further inventory floods are forthcoming, but pushing through this inventory in the clouds will slow if not completely halt appreciation once prices reach the bubble peak.

irvinehomeowner says:
April 23, 2013 at 3:52 pm
@IrvineRenter:

To be clear, my contention was that the tsunami of shadow inventory hitting MLS inventory didn?t happen. It doesn?t matter if someone changed the rules that NOBODY could foresee? the point is that the flood of distressed homes that have hit the market didn?t occur? held in the clouds or not.

As for OARMs, same thing? it would have exploded if interest rates rose like you predicted, but instead they dropped by a large margin. Teaser rates that people could afford to pay had become that actual rate and thus affordable. And with all the HARP, TARP, CRAP plans? distressed owners were able to get into affordable loans. The effect of recasted OARMs was not as large as they should have been.

Again, the bears claim that they could not foresee what lengths the government would intervene? but if I recall correctly whenever a bull would say ?The government would not let that happen?, the bear response was ?They can?t prevent it?. Somehow? they did.

It is through that analysis that I disagree with your contention that the bulls were completely and totally wrong. They were wrong about many things but not absolutely? and both sides had their share.

 

[Liar Loan]

IHO - I don't know if you realize it, but the person he was ridiculing in the main blog post was me.  So it's funny that both of us are actually talking about the same incident when discussing his stubbornness and intransigence.  (I said 2011/12 earlier, but I guess it was 2013.)

I think he mistakenly viewed me as a perma-bull and didn't realize that my outlook was based on extensive analysis of my own.  Your first comment is actually an accurate defense of my quote, which is that RE is cyclical, always has been, and probably always will be.  This flew in the face of his position, at the time, that prices would probably level out and remain flat for a very long time.  That has never been the case in OC real estate going back to WW2.  Prices go up rapidly, then crash, but they never stay flat for extended periods.

I brought this blog post up to him several times over the years, pointing out that he had once called me a "Kool-aid drinker", and I think he realized that my outlook was much more nuanced once he got to know me better.  For whatever reason, he seemed to be on a bit of crusade against perma-bulls at that time, probably because they were starting to show some success again, which I think provides context for his comment to you (not that it excuses it).  He has never given bulls as much credit as bears about their predictions.

Also, I guess the Talk Irvine comment shows he was still bitter about being blamed for the shutdown of the IHB forums.  I suppose it still rankled him that people were talking about him on these other forums (TI and OCR) and maybe he felt like you were there to troll him.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Heh, now that I think of it, it might of been something we had reflected on through PM.

I had even forgot about this until you asked me about it being personal and I remembered there was some post where I was trying to be reasonable and he got uber-defensive so I googled for it because I think I stopped visiting OCHN after that exchange.

He did this on the IHB quite a bit before. Anything that challenged his opinion was always talked down, dismissed or ignored which I think it unfair because it should be a discussion... he was like the Steven A Smith of real estate blogs (if that comparison makes any sense to anyone).

I think the biggest irony was when he tried to monetize IHB into feeding his realty business selling the same "reasons to use us" that he had ridiculed other realtors for a long time. And when challenged on that, he became even more defensive.

As for the shutdown of the IHB forums, that coincided with the commercialization of IHB so although they didn't give good reason why, everyone knew... you can't promote your business if you don't control the narrative.

And again, there is no personal angst held against him, but after this all played out, the picture was different from the paint.

 

[usctrojancpa]

IHO - I don't know if you realize it, but the person he was ridiculing in the main blog post was me.  So it's funny that both of us are actually talking about the same incident when discussing his stubbornness and intransigence.  (I said 2011/12 earlier, but I guess it was 2013.)

I think he mistakenly viewed me as a perma-bull and didn't realize that my outlook was based on extensive analysis of my own.  Your first comment is actually an accurate defense of my quote, which is that RE is cyclical, always has been, and probably always will be.  This flew in the face of his position, at the time, that prices would probably level out and remain flat for a very long time.  That has never been the case in OC real estate going back to WW2.  Prices go up rapidly, then crash, but they never stay flat for extended periods.

I brought this blog post up to him several times over the years, pointing out that he had once called me a "Kool-aid drinker", and I think he realized that my outlook was much more nuanced once he got to know me better.  For whatever reason, he seemed to be on a bit of crusade against perma-bulls at that time, probably because they were starting to show some success again, which I think provides context for his comment to you (not that it excuses it).  He has never given bulls as much credit as bears about their predictions.

Also, I guess the Talk Irvine comment shows he was still bitter about being blamed for the shutdown of the IHB forums.  I suppose it still rankled him that people were talking about him on these other forums (TI and OCR) and maybe he felt like you were there to troll him.

I thought that one of the reasons why he shut IHB down was because he couldn't get the realtors on the site, including me, to sign up for his referral fee program.  I can't remember exactly what he was looking for but it was much higher than a traditional referral fee of 25% of that agent to pay to another agent for a referral.  I'm sure that wasn't the #1 reason for shutting down IHB but I think it was one of them.

 

[zubs]

The forum snipers taking Larry's business was a big part of the forums going down.
People visited IHB and ended up liking the forums more.  The back and forth of it like here on TI made it easier for people to use you.

Larry's forum game wasn't as polished.

I'm thinking the same magic could happen for people selling other home services like blinds or back yard renovations....but it seems like only USC and Soylentgreen get customers through here.