October 2023 Irvine Housing Market Update

[cr84158]

Builders release new homes very slowly, 5-6 homes per month, so the supply don't really increase that much. Portola Springs has about 300 SFRs and about 150 condos left. About half of the SFRs are view lots so they don't even make it out of the priority list.

Any idea on how long the priority list for Ceilo?

 

[CalBears96]

Any idea on how long the priority list for Ceilo?

I know that there's overwhelming interest, but I can't really say how long the priority list itself is since Sales never released this information to us.

Basically, Shea intended for buyers to prequalify on 11/11, but due to the people joining the interest list, they opened up prequalification early. I received the email on 11/7, but for those who paid attention, the prequalify button was enabled on 11/4 when the Info Center opened up.

I visited the Info Center on 11/4 and sent my prequal letter that I got for Azul to Sales almost immediately. And then I called the preferred lender right after and asked him to prequalify me based on the information I uploaded to US Bank, since all PS builders are using US Bank. Preferred lender completed my prequal on Sunday and sent it to Sales. Even though Sales used the time stamp that I sent the prequal letter to her on Saturday, I was still NOT at the top of the list.

Fortunately, the people in front of me decided to wait for view lots and the one person in front of me that decided to buy at this phase chose lot 45. So I got my lot 38. Going to sign the reservation this Saturday during model grand opening.

 

[Danimal]

I’m not a fortune teller but my prediction would be that it will not get raised. SALT cap doesn’t matter as much in Florida and Texas because most homes there aren’t 1m+ and they have no state income tax. Only CA/NY are impacted the most by SALT cap.

Why would republicans want to take away a great source of income for the country targeted at CA/NY upper middle and upper income taxpayers? Only dems want SALT cap to be raised. Dems have no leverage or reasonings to negotiate SALT cap since it’s only helping the upper and upper middle class.

Have you looked at home prices in Texas lately? They are paying 2+% for property tax. I let you do the math.

SALT cap doesnt need to be raised. It will expire in 2025 unless one party controls 3 branches passing some sort of legislation which is very unlikely. Aside from Texas, Florida, do you realize that there are lots of republican house reps in CA/NY also oppose SALT cap? Consider republicans leading the house by small margin, it’s very likely nothing will be done. Just look at recent budget clown show in the house, you get the gyst.

 

[sleepy5136]

Have you looked at home prices in Texas lately? They are paying 2+% for property tax. I let you do the math.

SALT cap doesnt need to be raised. It will expire in 2025 unless one party controls 3 branches passing some sort of legislation which is very unlikely. Aside from Texas, Florida, do you realize that there are lots of republican house reps in CA/NY also oppose SALT cap? Consider republicans leading the house by small margin, it’s very likely nothing will be done. Just look at recent budget clown show in the house, you get the gyst.

Average home price in TX is $298k as shown here. Average price in CA is 840k as shown here. You can do the math how much it matters to the average TX homeowners. TX also recently had a huge surplus and have passed a bill to lower property taxes for homeowners as shown here. And not to mention, no state income tax in TX.

Elections are in 2024. Whatever you said just now might be irrelevant depending on the election. TBH SALT seems like an item where there is bipartisan support on capping it versus not capping it. Especially knowing there is a deficit, I don't know why you think the government will allow the country to have less revenue in 2025 unless we magically pay the debt off by then.

 

[Danimal]

Average home price in TX is $298k as shown here. Average price in CA is 840k as shown here. You can do the math how much it matters to the average TX homeowners. TX also recently had a huge surplus and have passed a bill to lower property taxes for homeowners as shown here. And not to mention, no state income tax in TX.

Elections are in 2024. Whatever you said just now might be irrelevant depending on the election. TBH SALT seems like an item where there is bipartisan support on capping it versus not capping it. Especially knowing there is a deficit, I don't know why you think the government will allow the country to have less revenue in 2025 unless we magically pay the debt off by then.

You had me at zillow data . Since when you start using LL data tactic? what does no state income tax have anything to do with SALT?

Capping SALT at what number is where they disagree. We’ll just have to wait and see in few years. Can we get back to original topic ?

 

[Liar Loan]

You had me at zillow data . Since when you start using LL data tactic? what does no state income tax have anything to do with SALT?

Having no state income tax means the amount you can deduct if the SALT cap expires is much lower. If you had studied the data you would know that!!

 

[sleepy5136]

You had me at zillow data . Since when you start using LL data tactic? what does no state income tax have anything to do with SALT?

Capping SALT at what number is where they disagree. We’ll just have to wait and see in few years. Can we get back to original topic ?

Bro you win, it's 36k above zillow. https://www.simpleshowing.com/blog/average-home-price-in-texas. How does that make a difference in my argument?

And look at you over here not knowing what SALT is and talking as if you know it. Highly recommend you do some research and understand SALT before speaking more on it

 

[Yoda]

I know that there's overwhelming interest, but I can't really say how long the priority list itself is since Sales never released this information to us.

Basically, Shea intended for buyers to prequalify on 11/11, but due to the people joining the interest list, they opened up prequalification early. I received the email on 11/7, but for those who paid attention, the prequalify button was enabled on 11/4 when the Info Center opened up.

I visited the Info Center on 11/4 and sent my prequal letter that I got for Azul to Sales almost immediately. And then I called the preferred lender right after and asked him to prequalify me based on the information I uploaded to US Bank, since all PS builders are using US Bank. Preferred lender completed my prequal on Sunday and sent it to Sales. Even though Sales used the time stamp that I sent the prequal letter to her on Saturday, I was still NOT at the top of the list.

Fortunately, the people in front of me decided to wait for view lots and the one person in front of me that decided to buy at this phase chose lot 45. So I got my lot 38. Going to sign the reservation this Saturday during model grand opening.

You mean the model "grand re-opening" by Shea since IP left Does Shea have their own design center for the upgrades or will they be using the IP Design Center since some of the Cielo homes have already been built by IP? I hope Shea keeps the Wolf appliances as standard as they only included GE Monogram appliances as standard for Cetara and the Wolf appliances were optional upgrades.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Oh the pain!

 

[usctrojancpa]

Historically did increased new home supply cause home price to stay flat? I think we have new homes at Potola Springs, Orchard Hills and Great Park in 2024?

To me is a supply/demand equation, if you have new homes available for sale versus not having new homes for sale that will take some demand out of the resale market (I have 2 buyers that only want to buy a new home over in Portola Springs vs resale home). So if you there were no new homes available for sale those new home buyers will be forced to look for resale homes causing more competitive which translates to higher prices. Also, have you noticed how they builders are only releasing 3-4 homes per phase versus 6-8 before COVID? That is done on purpose.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I know that there's overwhelming interest, but I can't really say how long the priority list itself is since Sales never released this information to us.

Basically, Shea intended for buyers to prequalify on 11/11, but due to the people joining the interest list, they opened up prequalification early. I received the email on 11/7, but for those who paid attention, the prequalify button was enabled on 11/4 when the Info Center opened up.

I visited the Info Center on 11/4 and sent my prequal letter that I got for Azul to Sales almost immediately. And then I called the preferred lender right after and asked him to prequalify me based on the information I uploaded to US Bank, since all PS builders are using US Bank. Preferred lender completed my prequal on Sunday and sent it to Sales. Even though Sales used the time stamp that I sent the prequal letter to her on Saturday, I was still NOT at the top of the list.

Fortunately, the people in front of me decided to wait for view lots and the one person in front of me that decided to buy at this phase chose lot 45. So I got my lot 38. Going to sign the reservation this Saturday during model grand opening.

I told my buyer at Olivewood that the majority of the buyers ahead of him are going to wait for view lots (they are only interested in an interior lot).

 

[usctrojancpa]

Oh the pain!

Yeah for contingent financed buyers.

 

[CalBears96]

You mean the model "grand re-opening" by Shea since IP left Does Shea have their own design center for the upgrades or will they be using the IP Design Center since some of the Cielo homes have already been built by IP? I hope Shea keeps the Wolf appliances as standard as they only included GE Monogram appliances as standard for Cetara and the Wolf appliances were optional upgrades.

Shea has its down design center in Irvine. Fortunately, Shea is keep Wolf appliances. I was a bit nervous when I read your post and when I checked the brochure, it didn't specify. I asked Sales today and she said we'll be getting Wolf appliances.

There weren't many people at the re-opening today, although I saw a lot of cars. Perhaps they were looking at Plan 2 or 3 model homes.

I was a bit surprised, though, when sales lady told me that Plan 1 is now very popular. I wonder if it's because they changed the stairs to glass rail, which makes the great room look much better. Either, all 5 phase 1 homes are now RESERVED. I expect there will be a bump in price in the next phase, considering they're priced a bit lower than Azul and Olivewood for phase 1.

 

[CalBears96]

I told my buyer at Olivewood that the majority of the buyers ahead of him are going to wait for view lots (they are only interested in an interior lot).

Yeah, I'm glad that the buyers in front of me are waiting for view lots. Otherwise, I wouldn't have got my home. But for Cielo, it will be at least 4 more phases before they reach view lots. Next phase will finish up Orbit, then they have to wait until Hyperion is completed, which could take 3-4 phases, before they reach view lots on Drumbeat. Even sales lady doesn't know if these buyers can wait that long. But IP sales did tell me that buyers were on the priority list since last July waiting for view lots.

 

[Yoda]

Shea has its down design center in Irvine. Fortunately, Shea is keep Wolf appliances. I was a bit nervous when I read your post and when I checked the brochure, it didn't specify. I asked Sales today and she said we'll be getting Wolf appliances.

There weren't many people at the re-opening today, although I saw a lot of cars. Perhaps they were looking at Plan 2 or 3 model homes.

I was a bit surprised, though, when sales lady told me that Plan 1 is now very popular. I wonder if it's because they changed the stairs to glass rail, which makes the great room look much better. Either, all 5 phase 1 homes are now RESERVED. I expect there will be a bump in price in the next phase, considering they're priced a bit lower than Azul and Olivewood for phase 1.

That's great that they are keeping the Wolf appliances. I agree the glass staircase looks much better than the standard one along with the waterfall edge island upgrade in the kitchen. New construction is so much better than resale especially when you get to personalize your home from the beginning

 

[trematix]

That's great that they are keeping the Wolf appliances. I agree the glass staircase looks much better than the standard one along with the waterfall edge island upgrade in the kitchen. New construction is so much better than resale especially when you get to personalize your home from the beginning

New Construction is a double edged sword. You spend way more customizing everything to your liking. Well over a year later and im still spending money on the house.

 

[CalBears96]

That's great that they are keeping the Wolf appliances. I agree the glass staircase looks much better than the standard one along with the waterfall edge island upgrade in the kitchen. New construction is so much better than resale especially when you get to personalize your home from the beginning

Being able to customize from the very beginning is great. Stacked cabinets and waterfall island are must-have items for my wife. We are definitely going to change to glass staircase. We'll see if we do the upgrade with Shea because my wife likes the job whoever Shea hire to do. Or we may hire them to do it after COE if we find out which company it is.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Being able to customize from the very beginning is great. Stacked cabinets and waterfall island are must-have items for my wife. We are definitely going to change to glass staircase. We'll see if we do the upgrade with Shea because my wife likes the job whoever Shea hire to do. Or we may hire them to do it after COE if we find out which company it is.

A lot of those upgrades can be done around half the cost doing it after closing but some upgrades you definitely want to do through the builder (like cabinets, structural, inside wall stuff, etc).

 

[CalBears96]

A lot of those upgrades can be done around half the cost doing it after closing but some upgrades you definitely want to do through the builder (like cabinets, structural, inside wall stuff, etc).

Yeah, we're doing cabinets and countertops with builder, but this time we're going to do flooring and closets after COE. We'll decide on glass stair rails depending on how much difference in price.

 

[sleepy5136]

Builder wanted to charge me double compared to a contractor. The cost to do flooring should be easier for the builder since no demo is required and no need to redo baseboards.

With rates now at 7-8% it isn’t worth it to do upgrades with the builder. Not to mention you’re also paying higher taxes as well.