OC as a whole dropped 20% since last year, but Irvine hardly dropped? Why?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
$380K will be the new median price when the dust settles.



We had similar issues in NorCal. People said prices would never fall. When they did, those same people said it wouldn't fall far. We had gulible people buying in each of the past 4 years and all lost money. Prices in Irvine, just like anywhere else, will fall, and fall pretty far. The bigger the rejection of that statement means I'm that much more certain it is a correct statement.
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217148952]Prices in Irvine, just like anywhere else, will fall, and fall pretty far. </blockquote>


Well, Jeff, I actually agree with the essence of your statement, but where are prices in San Francisco and Palo Alto these days compared to a few years ago? Those are the two cities which come first to mind when I think of "NorCal" (though the Bay Area, of course, is in the middle of the state, not the northern half).
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217148952]$380K will be the new median price when the dust settles.



We had similar issues in NorCal. People said prices would never fall. When they did, those same people said it wouldn't fall far. We had gulible people buying in each of the past 4 years and all lost money. Prices in Irvine, just like anywhere else, will fall, and fall pretty far. The bigger the rejection of that statement means I'm that much more certain it is a correct statement.</blockquote>


not to mention Bay area wages are on avg 50% higher than OC. The recent Tech City ranking showed the avg tech worker in SJC/Bay area made $140K. Average. Irvine will get hammered primarily because you will see steep white collar job losses from consulting/financial.



Regarding the NorCal bubble, look at Redfin for Saratoga/Los Gatos. Lots of multimillion $$$ properties coming on the market everyday. Prices are crashing and people are freaking out. PA and the rest of the Peninsula still holding up but it will get hit too. Plus, with many newer Googlers grumbling about their options at $700, and the IPO market deader than its ever been, traditional sources of liquidity for big downpayments are eroding.



We're going to a party on The Peninsula today. I wonder what everyone will be talking about? Should be fun.
 
Sorry I must hugely disagree with the assumption that Irvine prices haven't fallen that much. They actually have. I will be buying in Irvine this winter and I'm encouraged as the price drops with the houses that my wife are looking at. I will say I'm looking in the 1m to 1.3m price range. But here are the numbers from the OC Register today:



Zip Median Price Change from 07

92602 $614,500 -18.1%

92603 $825,000 -17.4%

92604 $532,500 -14.8%

92606 $520,000 -11.7%

92612 $535,000 -20.5%

92614 $525,000 -5.4%

92618 $626,000 -32.5%

92620 $770,000 2.3%



I'm not sure what you guys are talking about but as you can see above prices are falling in Irvine. And with the buying rush for homeowners to get in their home

before school starts over prices will take a hit this winter. I think prices in Irvine will see another 20% hit before we hit bottom sometime in late 2009. The ares with the highest demand always fall last when housing drops and the least desired areas (i.e. Corona, Riverside, Anaheim, Santa Ana) fall first and hardest.
 
[quote author="Boston2theBay" date=1217199737]

Regarding the NorCal bubble, look at Redfin for Saratoga/Los Gatos. Lots of multimillion $$$ properties coming on the market everyday. Prices are crashing and people are freaking out.</blockquote>


Really?



http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Weekly-Charts/Mercury-News-Charts/ZIPSJMN.aspx



Los Gatos 95030 $2,012,500 34.2% $787

Los Gatos 95032 $1,190,000 6.0% $590

Los Gatos 95033 $860,000 0.0% $472

Saratoga 95070 $1,585,000 12.6% $649



I'd argue that it isn't so much incomes as a matter of supply. There are no new large housing projects coming on line in the area north of the 17 and west of the 85, nor have there been for quite some time. Contrast this with the gigantic spaces just waiting to become lovely new IAC-type units in just the former military bases in greater Irvine.
 
Single Family Residences Condominiums SFR Only

ORANGE COUNTY SFR Price % chg Condos Price % chg $/Sq F



Irvine 92602 9 $670 -29.8% 11 $521 -20.5% n/a

Irvine 92603 12 $1,340 -7.6% 7 $668 -0.4% $452 -13%

Irvine 92604 10 $535 -14.6% 4 $500 -5.7% $386 -16.3%

Irvine 92606 4 $660 -20.8% 8 $420 -16.0% $285 -27.1%

Irvine 92612 4 $575 -7.3% 8 $472 -16.5% $329 -18.2%

Irvine 92614 6 $638 -21.1% 8 $487 -8.5% $383 -6.6%

Irvine 92618 6 $809 34.8% 4 $428 -22.3% $375 -14.8%

Irvine 92620 18 $765 -10.8% 6 $400 -46.4% $342 -7.3%



<a href="http://dqnews.com/Charts/Monthly-Charts/LA-Times-Charts/ZIPLAT.aspx">Per DataQuick via DQnews.com</a>. The percentage next to the $/Sqft. number is from July 07 because I don't have June handy. Notice how the % sqft. prices are down more than the %SFR prices for all but two of the zips? You get more for your money in 2008.



Update: That didn't come out as clean in the forums software. The first $ number is median price for SFRs, the second $ is median price for condos, and the third $ number is per sqft. for SFRs only.
 
Actual Case-Schiller numbers, charted. Don't believe "median" numbers just because they have been reflecting negative numbers lately... bad data are bad data whether they support your feelings or conflict with them. I've included some of the indices in relevant markets for other areas that I understand are relavent to some of the regular participants. Supporting data are on the second sheet below in the link.



<img src="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/CaseShillerGraph.jpg" alt="" />



<a href="http://irvinerealtorsite.com/CaseShillerGraph.xls"><strong>Link </strong></a>to data, no extra charge.



Notes:

For the April numbers (remember there is an unfortunate 3 month delay for CS) the rollbacks are as follows:

PHX - 2/05

LA - 5/04

SD - 11/03

SF - 4/04

MIAMI - 11/04

TAMPA - 1/05

CHI - 1/05

BOS - 11/03

LV - 4/04

NATIONWIDE - 7/04
 
I don't think anyone will dispute that medians are deeply flawed and far inferior to CS as a way to track a market.



But the question in this thread is an interesting one, which CS doesn't answer, to my knowledge (though one could use that methodology, of course): are some zipcodes actually resisting this pullback with pricing power largely intact? Obviously, huge swaths of CA are getting cut in half (almost all of them in Inland areas). But what about places like Santa Monica, Westwood, SF proper, Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Laguna Beach, etc?
 
[quote author="Hormiguero" date=1217198615][quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217148952]Prices in Irvine, just like anywhere else, will fall, and fall pretty far. </blockquote>


Well, Jeff, I actually agree with the essence of your statement, but where are prices in San Francisco and Palo Alto these days compared to a few years ago? Those are the two cities which come first to mind when I think of "NorCal" (though the Bay Area, of course, is in the middle of the state, not the northern half).</blockquote>


SF June 07 to 08 sales down 10% and price down 12%. San Mateo, or PA, was down 25% for sales and 13% for price. So much for areas that never go down. http://dqnews.com/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay080717.aspx
 
[quote author="norcaljeff" date=1217244170]San Mateo, or PA, was down 25% for sales and 13% for price. </blockquote>


Actually, Jeff, the latest PA price #s for both zipcodes (on very thin data, I admit) are both positive.



Palo Alto 94301 $1,847,500 93.7% $1,041 18 5.9%

Palo Alto 94306 $1,200,000 2.1% $911 27 -20.6%



http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Weekly-Charts/Mercury-News-Charts/ZIPSJMN.aspx



Also, Palo Alto isn't even in San Mateo county, besides being a good 30 min drive from the city of San Mateo.
 
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