OC as a whole dropped 20% since last year, but Irvine hardly dropped? Why?

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Stats from OC Register. Home prices from June 2008



Irvine 92603 $827,500 -6.9%

Irvine 92620 $675,500 -3.4%

Irvine 92602 $649,000 -13.80%

Irvine 92606 $580,000 -10.80

Irvine 92618 $535,000 - 5.90%

Irvine 92614 $535,000 - 2.70%

Orange County - 20%



Compared to OC as a whole Irvine's real estate prices did not drop that much. Did the same thing happen during the OC housing decline in 1990 - 1995? Did Irvine home prices not fall nearly as high as OC?



It seems that for a 20% drop in OC, Irvine should decline more than only 10%?



Just curious.
 
Most home sellers in Irvine would rather pull their homes off the market than to sell it cheap. They are like TIC freezing supply until demand is up again in 2012. Some are listing for WTF prices just for fun and pull it off the market when there is no knifecatcher. Panda dreaming of Irvine will be a very very very long dream.
 
Because Irvine is different Panda, but you already know that... :)



I can supply some empirical evidence. A couple of my same models sold last summer and the price I am getting on my condo is over 90% of those comps, i.e. the price on my home has gone down less than 10% in the last year. Given a slight location premium to those, I'd say we have probably dropped 10% in West Irvine since last summer. I think prices had slipped further by early this calendar year, but they have rebounded back a few percent since then.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1217053056]Stats from OC Register. Home prices from June 2008



Irvine 92603 $827,500 -6.9%

Irvine 92620 $675,500 -3.4%

Irvine 92602 $649,000 -13.80%

Irvine 92606 $580,000 -10.80

Irvine 92618 $535,000 - 5.90%

Irvine 92614 $535,000 - 2.70%

Orange County - 20%



Compared to OC as a whole Irvine's real estate prices did not drop that much. Did the same thing happen during the OC housing decline in 1990 - 1995? Did Irvine home prices not fall nearly as high as OC?



It seems that for a 20% drop in OC, Irvine should decline more than only 10%?



Just curious.</blockquote>
That's probably because the older, more ghetto places like Santa Ana and Anaheim are getting hammared because there were more subprime borrowers out there. Turtle Ridge seems to have held up the best in all of Irvine even with WFT prices.
 
It will be interesting to see the year by year percentage decline of Orange County as a whole vs. the year by year percentage decline of Irvine during the 1990 - 1995 housing recession. Does anybody have the stats for this data for Irvine only between 1982 - 2006? I do have the stats for the median home price for Orange County from 1982 - 2006. It would be interesting to compare.



2006 709,000

2005 691,940

2004 627,270

2003 487,020

2002 412,650

2001 355,620

2000 318,010

1999 280,900

1998 261,700

1997 229,840

1996 213,370

1995 209,400

1994 214,540

1993 217,210

1992 230,860

1991 239,680

1990 242,358

1989 241,708

1988 203,860

1987 163,218

1986 144,441

1985 132,758

1984 130,668

1983 131,456

1982 129,641
 
Interesting data, really puts things in perspective.



It took roughly thirteen years for prices to double from 150,000$ to 300,000$.



But only four years after that to zip from 300,000$ to 600,000$.
 
Here are the June median prices for Irvine from 88-08 in 1000s...



88 191.5



89 240



90 240



91 250



92 239.25



93 235



94 216



95 223.5



96 240



97 260



98 275



99 284



00 288



01 348.5



02 384.75



03 450.25



04 661.5



05 645



06 775



07 699



08 590



I may post more on this later.
 
Lookit the increases between 2003 and 2004!



So would a decrease to 2002, which is 6 years ago be a buying

opportunity for you guys in Irvine?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1217093062]Here are the June median prices for Irvine from 88-08 in 1000s...



88 191.5



89 240



90 240



91 250



92 239.25



93 235



94 216



95 223.5



96 240



97 260



98 275



99 284



00 288



01 348.5



02 384.75



03 450.25



04 661.5



05 645



06 775



07 699



08 590



I may post more on this later.</blockquote>


Graph, are you sure that your stats are correct for median home prices for Irvine between 2000 - 2005? I thought Irvine's median home prices always had atleast a 10% premium over the median home prices of Orange County. It seems like my number from 2000 - 2005 is higher than your number from 2000 - 2005. I don't think this is possible? Correct me if i am wrong.
 
[quote author="lawyerliz" date=1217098696]Lookit the increases between 2003 and 2004!



So would a decrease to 2002, which is 6 years ago be a buying

opportunity for you guys in Irvine?</blockquote>


Currently OC's median prices are $498,900 and the median home prices of Irvine is $606,357 which is a premium of 17% over OC median home prices. Does any one know what the historical premium has been in the past 5/10/15 years of Irvine home prices over OC home prices?



Is $420,000 median home price in Irvine where the Rent = Buy? That would mean that Irvine would need to correct by 30% to get to this 2002/2003 level. At first, I was very skeptical of what IPO was saying that the prices were firming and inventory levels were low in Irvine, but seeing how fast his condo sold for almost full price, it seems that the demand side is still strong in Irvine compare to other parts of OC. I mean anything can happen if the economy gets really bad and mortgage rates shoot up to two digits, but I am not too sure any more that the prices will eventually correct by 30% in Irvine. I used to be the BIGGEST PANDA "BEAR" on this forum, but now i am converting to Panda "Neutral". Seeing prices fall by 22.6% in Lake Forest and 40%-45% in Laguana Hills and Santa Ana in the past year and seeing prices fall only 8-10% in Irvine, is pretty shocking to me. Do any of you have a opinion to what i am saying?
 
Give it time Panda. The areas that have been hit so far are either newer and full speculation or lower income and those lack resources to absorb hits. It will come home to roost.
 
This is why Irvine housing market is still in better shape than other cities in OC



<a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/top100/">Top 10 Places to live in US</a>.
 
[quote author="xebotwinturbo" date=1217110309]This is why Irvine housing market is still in better shape than other cities in OC



<a href="http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/bplive/2008/top100/">Top 10 Places to live in US</a>.</blockquote>


Yeah, I hear ya man.. I wish that Money Magazine did not publish this ranking because Irvine will start attracting a lot of out-of-stater transplants like me. You know what is suprising about the ranking is that Naperville, IL came in at #3 while Irvine, CA is #4. I live somewhat near Naperville, IL and I don't understand what the magic is over there? But I agree, I think the Money Magazine Best Places to Live Ranking will only help firm the property values and increase demand in Irvine.



Man... Panda not only has competition from all the Rich Foreign China men, but also competition from all the American out-of-staters who are moving to Irvine (thanks to the ranking by money magazine). Irvine may possibly be Panda's long long DREAM.



Perhaps I should start out at Aliso Viejo and work my way up to Irvine :)
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1217105420]Graph, are you sure that your stats are correct for median home prices for Irvine between 2000 - 2005? I thought Irvine's median home prices always had atleast a 10% premium over the median home prices of Orange County. It seems like my number from 2000 - 2005 is higher than your number from 2000 - 2005. I don't think this is possible? Correct me if i am wrong.</blockquote>


Panda, I am 100% sure those numbers from DataQuick are 100% correct. However, you must use DQ numbers and compare them to DQ numbers, and not the CAR numbers. Here are the numbers from DQ, but missing 06 and 07. Man... I have been meaning to update this one for a while now.



Here's some data candy, year-by-year for Orange County home prices -- average vs. median from '88 to '05.

Year Average price Yr. % Chg. Median price Yr. % Chg.

1988 $216,444 --- $184,000 ---

1989 $252,901 +16.84% $213,000 +15.76%

1990 $260,520 +3.01% $215,000 +0.94%

1991 $256,833 -1.42% $218,000 +1.40%

1992 $255,676 -0.45% $212,000 -2.75%

1993 $238,059 -6.89% $202,000 -4.72%

1994 $235,607 -1.03% $203,000 +0.50%

1995 $224,985 -4.51% $194,000 -4.43%

1996 $228,556 +1.59% $193,000 -0.52%

1997 $247,024 +8.08% $201,000 +4.15%

1998 $271,879 +10.06% $227,000 +12.94%

1999 $293,429 +7.93% $240,000 +5.73%

2000 $329,929 +12.44% $271,000 +12.92%

2001 $360,770 +9.35% $303,000 +11.81%

2002 $412,126 +14.24% $354,000 +16.83%

2003 $484,974 +17.68% $419,000 +18.36%

2004 $622,032 +28.26% $522,000 +24.58%

2005 $703,071 +13.03% $593,000 +13.60%

Average +7.54% Average +7.48%

88-05 gain +224.83% 88-05 gain +222.28%
 
Isn't it just as simple as?:



Heavy subrime exposure = 2007 price drops

Heavy Alt-A exposure = 2009 price drops



Areas with heavy subrime exposure contributed most to lowering OC median prices for the past 2 years, but they will pass the baton to Irvine and other higher priced areas next year and the year after.
 
[quote author="upperlowerclass" date=1217127376]Isn't it just as simple as?:



Heavy subrime exposure = 2007 price drops

Heavy Alt-A exposure = 2009 price drops



Areas with heavy subrime exposure contributed most to lowering OC median prices for the past 2 years, but they will pass the baton to Irvine and other higher priced areas next year and the year after.</blockquote>


I highly doubt it. There was another recent study ( i forgot the source) that showed Irvine population actually grew 12% this year while other neighboring cities sinked. This is a big indication that more and more people have moved to irvine.



Look at Ipop's house. He put it up for sale and got 7 offers within 2 weeks. Irvine is still a very desirable place.



That's why my chance of owning a house in irvine will be very slim if the demand is like this.

I guess I spend few more years renting.
 
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