Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[usctrojancpa]

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

 

[PureRealEstateGal]

I love the Asian community here in Irvine - but houses are over priced for sure-- I see pretty good size houses in the 700,000s. I'm used to much cheaper pricing for homes in SD lol - -but I guess this is good- for listings 

Here is a funny video link for all you Realtors out there- it's hilarious. I'm sharing it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnpk7bEeHaw

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

Ok people lets not chase away Trojans future bride here. We chased away the princess last time.

 

[rkp]

I love the Asian community here in Irvine - but houses are over priced for sure-- I see pretty good size houses in the 700,000s. I'm used to much cheaper pricing for homes in SD lol - -but I guess this is good- for listings 

Here is a funny video link for all you Realtors out there- it's hilarious. I'm sharing it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wnpk7bEeHaw

it wasnt hilarious - it was a pitch for your company's services.  no need to be sly about sharing it.  just say your group made it and you are posting it to drum up leads. 

so which one are you:http://purepcg.com/our_team.php

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

I think she is Teri the young and cute one. She is perfect for USC Trojan. Vivian wouldn't call other Asians Oriental. Oriental is a word for rug or a lamp but rarely used for Asians.

May be that is a clever adjective to include the people from the rug maker countries.

I thought only Hispanic handymen and landscapers don't have an office address.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Attached is the sales and inventory data for March and April 2012.  March 2012 sales were up about 4% versus March 2012 while April 2012 sales were up about 5% versus April 2012 sales.  That's not really the main issue that I'm seeing because the buyers are out there and looking (they are being selective though).  The issue that we are having is that there is a lack of inventory, both standard and REO listings.  The number of active listings has DROPPED by about 20% from the end of 2011, it should be going the other way.  Normally, inventory levels rise from the end of the year but things are going the opposite direction currently.  We are near the lows in active listings of what we saw back in Nov/Dec 2009.  Homes that are priced right and show decently fly into escrow (87 Legacy in West Irvine would be a great example of that). The majority of listings out there are either short sales or equity sellers who have listed their homes at WTF prices looking for a sucker? 

Is it because there is a lack of unwilling sellers looking for higher price or sellers who can't sell (little to no equity) or a combination of the two?  I honestly don't know.  The interesting is that these low inventory levels aren't just happening in Irvine, it's also in Ladera Ranch, Laguna Niguel, Aliso Viejo, Yorba Linda, Orange, Anaheim Hills, and even out in Las Vegas.  Interest rates are back down to 3.75%-4% after rising a bit for a few weeks so that's definitely a tailwind for buyers.  Of my last 6 purchase transactions, 4 will have been REOs with 1 flip and 1 standard sale and that's only because my buyers and I have acted quickly to get the properties into escrow for my buyers.  I'm sure hoping that new listings start coming out as we get into the summer selling season because we are below 2.5 months worth of inventory as I type this (463 active listings in Irvine on MLS as of 20 minutes ago). 

 

[WoodburyDad]

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

 

[usctrojancpa]

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend. 

 

[WoodburyDad]

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

No hurry, I didn?t mean it that way.
I'm a big DIY renovations fan.
It?s been five months and I?m just anxious that?s all. 

 

[The Motor Court Company]

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon 

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

This could change in the future... but so far... many of those bearish doomsday predictions haven't happened yet:

1. Tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market.

2. Interest rates skyrocketing.

3. Inventory ballooning.

4. Prices dropping by 50%+ (in some products it has... but not across the board).

I think the next few years are going to be really interesting.

 

[usctrojancpa]

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon 

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.

 

[irvinehomeshopper]

The new and improved version of OH will  just be like LA. Stripped, cheapen, valued and repeat. So don't expect too much or all of us would be disappointted like LA.

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon 

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

 

[WoodburyDad]

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon 

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.

That?s one of the benefits of not having an association to deal with
No approval hold ups and you can get away with all sorts of cool features.
I wanted to get a version of this approved for our backyard really bad

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Ahh... so WoodburyDad is actually MikeinIrvine*.

*For those unfamiliar with MikeinIrvine... he spent some exorbitant amount on his backyard landscaping... to the point that I thought he re-created Disneyland in his backyard.

 

[Nous]

This could change in the future... but so far... many of those bearish doomsday predictions haven't happened yet:

1. Tsunami of foreclosures hitting the market.

2. Interest rates skyrocketing.

3. Inventory ballooning.

4. Prices dropping by 50%+ (in some products it has... but not across the board).

I think the next few years are going to be really interesting.

I think that's the part causing this, the next few years.  We have an election season that is causing congress to put off any majour legislation.  The Eruozone is get real shaky with their own elections, and they haven't really tackled their debt issues either.  Throw in people who don't want to take a loss and a bunch of companies trying to make as much money as they can and you get a nice recipe for "WTF is going on?!".  Personally I don't think this area is worth what people charge (hence why I still haven't bought even though my asian fiance and her family are chompin at the bit) and that prices will adjust to income in time.

 

[The Motor Court Company]

Orchard Hills just got postponed again. The latest date now is TBD.

just like Orchard Hills...always coming soon 

Did you do the renos yourself? Or was it USCTrojDad coming out of retirement?

I can't wait to see what kind of work you had done... it's like the House Hunters 2-months after move-in scenes!

Nah, 95% of the renovations were done by 3rd party contractors (flooring, paint, demo, shutters, etc).  I took care of a lot of the clean up work and door handles hardware while my dad only installed bathroom lights and medicine cabinets and driving to the dump to haul away the trash.  My dad will install crownmolding next year after he gets his other hip replaced. 

Are the renovations finished yet? From what I saw... it was looking very nice.

Interior ones are done for now (I'll tackle the kitchen and master bath towards the end of the year).  Outside needs a little work, but having a hard time figuring out which direction I want to go in.  I'll post a thread in the next week or two with some pictures.

When will we get to see those renovations?

I promise I'll post a thread about them this weekend.

Ok, I'll post a thread this weekend...no more waiting for you guys.  I got the pool up to speed last week so I show the before and after pictures of that too.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Orchard Hills just got postponed again. The latest date now is TBD.

Usually TBD stands for "To Be Determined". In OH's case... it's continually "To Be Delayed".

 

[usctrojancpa]

We've hit a multiple year low for active listings in Irvine this evening....only 444 (triple death) homes on the market as of this evening.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Attached is the sales data through the end of June.  Sales in May 2012 were over 18% higher than those in May 2011 while sales in June 2012 were about 6% higher than in June 2011 as well as being the highest level since the bubble days.  June marked the 4th straight month of YOY sales increases.  Inventory levels continue to plunge to recent lows that have also not been seen since the bubble days.  Strong sales along with the lack of new listings is leading to very slim pickings, not just in Irvine but almost in every city in Orange County (even Vegas).  Interest rates which are around 3.50% for conforming loans and 3.75% for jumbo conforming loans have been a tailwind to these sales.  It is also possible that the new HAMP/HARP 2.0 refinance program has also taken off some houses off the market as people can refinance with these all-time low rates without a loan-to-value limit and stay put in their homes at a lower monthly mortgage payment.  I don't think I've ever seen where inventory levels drop at such a rapid pace from the winter to the spring/summer selling season.  There's a complete lack of standard sellers out there.

So what does this all mean?  Well, we are now in a seller's market with less than 2 months of inventory (415 as I post this).  If you guys think that's bad, Aliso Viejo has less than 1 months of inventory (71 current listings and average sales of 90+ per month in the past months). Most decent property that hits the market priced around comps are going into escrow with quickly, many with multiple offers over list and in some cases over comps.  Being quick and nimble can pay off in this kind of market.  Some appraised values are beginning to get pushed past the comp limits but only if the buyers can bring in enough additional equity to bridge the gap.  As one lender mentioned to me, one or even two closings over comps does not make for a new comp range.  New comp prices are realized and can be justified by appraisers only once there are at least 3-4 closings with the higher prices.  I see prices are creeping up a bit with appraised values and strict lending standards keeping prices somewhat contained.  At some point the low inventory levels will decrease sales volume but will create pent-up demand.  I'm kind of curious to see where inventory levels will be when we get into the slow selling season.  There are very interesting times indeed.