Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
OCtoSV said:
I copied and pasted from Bankrate, which BTW is where I got my 1.99% zero cost 15, so it's not always garbage. And these rates above omit the up front costs besides points these rates will carry. Only suckers are buying right now.
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Those bankrate rates are garbage in my option as they are national averages and don't take many other factors that effect the interest rate (i.e. credit score, loan amount, down payment %, property location, property type, etc). Buyers need to speak to their lender to determine what their interest rate will be given their particular situation. It's the same thing as posting national real estate news and trying to shoehorn it to fit the narrative for the local real estate market, it doesn't work like that as local real estate can move independently of what is happening nationally.
 
OCtoSV said:
I copied and pasted from Bankrate, which BTW is where I got my 1.99% zero cost 15, so it's not always garbage. And these rates above omit the up front costs besides points these rates will carry. Only suckers are buying right now.
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Ummm, everyone's situation is completely different so you can't just say that anyone buying today is a sucker as people buy and sell homes for many reasons of which many are not financially based. Primary residence homes are not stocks and should not be treated as investment vehicles, that's what rental properties are for. I know you want prices to come down faster and are probably frustrated that prices have flattened out but the market will do what it wants regardless of what you want it to do. The only way that prices will come down materially is if inventory increased significantly and unfortunately the opposite of that is happening since the beginning of this year.
 
irvinehomeowner said:
If I had a nickel for every time I heard that... :)

What about people who aren't financing? Is 9% down from peak still too high?
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Cash buyers dictate the market up here, and Santa Clara County median is down 20% YoY. Maybe people are just smarter up here, and it's defintiely less of a consumer culture than OC.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Those bankrate rates are garbage in my option as they are national averages and don't take many other factors that effect the interest rate (i.e. credit score, loan amount, down payment %, property location, property type, etc). Buyers need to speak to their lender to determine what their interest rate will be given their particular situation. It's the same thing as posting national real estate news and trying to shoehorn it to fit the narrative for the local real estate market, it doesn't work like that as local real estate can move independently of what is happening nationally.
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This is new as 800+ FICOs with no consumer debt and high W2 income could get the best rates from Bankrate. My buddy in Newport is at a 0.25% higher rate through WF than my Bankrate Rocket refi, both done at the same time and WF probed them deeply vs my 10 day close. Your statement above is a sign of credit tightening, reducing the buyer pool. Did you see in the WSJ yesterday AMZN comp is down 15-50% this year due to heavy percentage of tcomp in RSUs that are down 35% ? So many factors at play, mostly negative for asset pricing.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Ummm, everyone's situation is completely different so you can't just say that anyone buying today is a sucker as people buy and sell homes for many reasons of which many are not financially based. Primary residence homes are not stocks and should not be treated as investment vehicles, that's what rental properties are for. I know you want prices to come down faster and are probably frustrated that prices have flattened out but the market will do what it wants regardless of what you want it to do. The only way that prices will come down materially is if inventory increased significantly and unfortunately the opposite of that is happening since the beginning of this year.
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I don't want prices to come down anymore as I want to sell in the next 5 years, and the South OC areas I'm interested in for our retirement pad are already crashing as those markets lack Chinese cash buyers to buoy values. Financing an asset in a rising rate environment with the extraordinary Fed Qt operation just getting underway is just a very risky financial proposition and this forum serves to help people consider all viewpoints on the market.
 
usctrojancpa said:
Ummm, everyone's situation is completely different so you can't just say that anyone buying today is a sucker as people buy and sell homes for many reasons of which many are not financially based. Primary residence homes are not stocks and should not be treated as investment vehicles, that's what rental properties are for. I know you want prices to come down faster and are probably frustrated that prices have flattened out but the market will do what it wants regardless of what you want it to do. The only way that prices will come down materially is if inventory increased significantly and unfortunately the opposite of that is happening since the beginning of this year.
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I want prices to go down further because I want to buy Cielo in 2 years. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening. We're concerned that if prices don't go down further, Cielo prices might go up to the point that we can't afford it anymore.

So I guess OCtoSV and I want opposite of what we predicted.
 
OCtoSV said:
What kind of moron locks a 5.5% rate right now when the 10 year is up 60 basis pts this month alone? Better to wait until its at 7 or 8% and only compete with Chinese cash buyers which won't float the Irvine new construction market forever (h/t Mawsome Sauce). Job losses are piling up in OC and the remote workers are getting axed first. Our EVP even gently coaxed one of his salespeople to move up here from L.A. without relo and she did as she saw the writing on the wall.
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Not true in the big tech companies. Also my RSUs have been flat at my company. You seem to be cherry picking a lot of your points.
 
ThirtySomethingWEquity said:
Not true in the big tech companies. Also my RSUs have been flat at my company. You seem to be cherry picking a lot of your points.
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You're young judging by your handle so haven't been through a cycle before, and this cycle in tech is shaping up like 2000. Why? Because Elon showed you can get rid of the majority of your employees and still run the operation, and that trend is spreading like wildfire across Si Valley CFOs as ALL tech companies are overstaffed. Also, 3 big pieces of news today: 1) Intel cut their dividend 65%, 2) MicKinsey, the Goldman of consulting just canned 2000 people and 3) VC fundraising at a 9 year low.

One of my peers left for AMZN 8 months ago and has to be regretting that decision given the plunge in his RSU component whereas some other people I knew there left within the last year after correctly divining the future, cashing out 40% above the current bid. AMZN also pays much lower base salaries so a double whammy.
 
OCtoSV said:
You're young judging by your handle so haven't been through a cycle before, and this cycle in tech is shaping up like 2000. Why? Because Elon showed you can get rid of the majority of your employees and still run the operation, and that trend is spreading like wildfire across Si Valley CFOs as ALL tech companies are overstaffed. Also, 3 big pieces of news today: 1) Intel cut their dividend 65%, 2) MicKinsey, the Goldman of consulting just canned 2000 people and 3) VC fundraising at a 9 year low.

One of my peers left for AMZN 8 months ago and has to be regretting that decision given the plunge in his RSU component whereas some other people I knew there left within the last year after correctly divining the future, cashing out 40% above the current bid. AMZN also pays much lower base salaries so a double whammy.
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My handle is a bit out dated. Also, I’ve been coding for cash since high school. So I remember the dotcom crash. Twitter is on a hiring spree btw. Think they just want to employ people for fun?

Are you a PM btw?
 
On a positive note, most companies give a dollar value for equity and back into the quantity of options/RSUs so if the stock price is lower by 50% you will get twice as many options/RSUs and when the price rebounds you get back some of the amount lost (granted over a longer period). Also the depressed stock price will impact the current year vesting but if the price rebounds the future vestings may be fine.
 
qwerty said:
On a positive note, most companies give a dollar value for equity and back into the quantity of options/RSUs so if the stock price is lower by 50% you will get twice as many options/RSUs and when the price rebounds you get back some of the amount lost (granted over a longer period). Also the depressed stock price will impact the current year vesting but if the price rebounds the future vestings may be fine.
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If stock market does rebound, then vesting at lower price is good since RSU is considered income. So if you keep RSUs for more than a year, then you will be taxed at long term capital gain on the difference from vesting to when you sell the stocks.
 
Usc, I always appreciate your insight! I noticed the inventory in Woodbridge is nonexistent. There is not a single SFR currently for sale in the entire neighborhood. After that condo sale on the water that went 600K over ask, this neighborhood is to be hotter. Any insights on what might be going on in general vs other neighborhoods?
 
irvineband said:
Usc, I always appreciate your insight! I noticed the inventory in Woodbridge is nonexistent. There is not a single SFR currently for sale in the entire neighborhood. After that condo sale on the water that went 600K over ask, this neighborhood is to be hotter. Any insights on what might be going on in general vs other neighborhoods?
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Isn't Woodbridge MR less than most Irvine homes or is that Woodbury? I always get those two confused.
 
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