Observations from the front lines of the Irvine housing market?

[paperboyNC]

What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

 

[bones]

.

 

[paperboyNC]

What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

Except didn't these two just close for over $800k down the street.  These are attached condos.  Similar SF, 4 bedrooms.  Closed at $342 PSF and $332 PSF.
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/34-Ridge-Vly-92618/unit-52/home/21937692
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/82-Ranchland-92618/unit-66/home/40102594

Those two are right by the park, are more upgraded and just show better. Things will pick up in the spring, but right now buyers willing to pay over $800K want something more than a boring house on a small lot.

 

[bones]

.http://w.

 

[jerometl]

What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

yikes .. so if you are the one living at 29 Conservatory, 3 of your closest neighbors are for sale .. you would think something is wrong specific to this street or neighborhood?

 

[bones]

.od?
[/quote].

 

[paperboyNC]

yikes .. so if you are the one living at 29 Conservatory, 3 of your closest neighbors are for sale .. you would think something is wrong specific to this street or neighborhood?

That's kinda why I asked my original question.  I've been on this street 1000 times.  Nothing is wrong with it per say unless something bad happened over there recently??  It faces the Brookfield Paloma attached product so both sides of the street is alley loaded which makes the street VERY crowded with cars but that's not unusual for Irvine.

Not that I know of. When I was renting once 3 of the 7 houses between ours and the end of the street coincidentally went on the market at once. They all sold around the same time and things quieted down after that. In fact only one home has sold on that street in the past 12 months with no active listings.

 

[notTHEoc]

Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 

If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

 

[bones]

[q.

 

[notTHEoc]

Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 

If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).

got it. thanks

 

[Irvinecommuter]

Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 

If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).

The RA development in PP is terrible.  Terrible looking from the outside and bad floorplan.

I do recall a good RA development in PS:  Manzanita.  The house was huge and very nice floorplans.

 

[quattroporte]

Honestly, I think those Richmond America homes are just duds.  Brookfield builds a much better house. 

If a home has the features/floorplan/lot you want, does builder matter? maybe I'm naive or haven't had enough bad experiences, but with all the building codes / permitting here, I think quality ends up being a matter of luck with the subs and project mgr working on the home. I've had an agent who specialized in the same hood for ~30 yrs tell me to avoid certain resale tracts due to builder so maybe there is some impact on resale but I still keep thinking even if there are issues, is it really going to be more than 1-2% of the value of the home.

When I said "dud", I don't necessarily mean b/c of the build quality.  Although I think there's some of that in play here along with maybe some floorplan deficiencies.  I haven't seen these in years so I can't remember the interior.  Plus they are among some of the uglier (new) homes I've seen in Irvine.  Also of note, Richmond America abandoned this project 1/3 or 1/2 way through.  They were supposed to build all the way to the toll road if I recall correctly.  Instead, another product is there now.  So between that and the fact that these are sitting on the market 80+ days while attached product of similar SF and price is selling ahead of it says a lot (to me at least).

The RA development in PP is terrible.  Terrible looking from the outside and bad floorplan.

I do recall a good RA development in PS:  Manzanita.  The house was huge and very nice floorplans.

These ones?

What's wrong with those 3 Manzanita's sitting on the market 80+ days?  Aren't those detached condo?  Asking $335 PSF, $347 and $320.  All 4 bedrooms.

Edit: Oops forgot links but now my Redfin is acting up.  These are the ones over by Conservancy in PS.

31 Conservancy - $839,900
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/31-Conservancy-92618/home/12254936

27 Conservancy - $849,000
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/27-Conservancy-92618/home/12252196

33 Conservancy - $878,888
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/33-Conservancy-92618/home/12252199

bones,

They are all over $800k and too much square footage. I don't think my home would sell right now for over $800k either. I have fewer square feet.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Thanks for the update

What about all cash buyers-  has there been much change in sales closed with all cash in the last 2 months?

Cash buyers still make up about 30%+ of all sales transactions in the past few months.  My listing in Stonegate was bought by a cash buyer.

 

[lnc]

Table of distressed sales and cash buyers

Thanks for the update

What about all cash buyers-  has there been much change in sales closed with all cash in the last 2 months?

Cash buyers still make up about 30%+ of all sales transactions in the past few months.  My listing in Stonegate was bought by a cash buyer.

S. CAlifornia's all cash purchase is 29.1% of all sales according to this chart (Table of distressed sales and cash buyers) from Caculated Risk.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/02/lawler-updated-table-of-distressed.html?m=0

 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

I bet that percentage is higher in Irvine.

 

[usctrojancpa]

I bet that percentage is higher in Irvine.

It's ranged between about 30-40%.

 

[paperboyNC]

Properties that are listed at non-WTF prices are still selling pretty quickly. 

Agreed. If I listed my place for 30% more ($367/ft) than I paid for it ($283/ft) two years ago it'd probably sell in a week. This is only active listing in Irvine that is detached, under $370/ft for an over 2000 sq ft, 4bd under $800k home:http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/64-Royal-Victoria-92606/home/5918229.The rest are all pending.

But most sellers in Portola Springs are asking WTF prices because they are not in an hurry to sell and only want to sell if they can get a WTF price.

Good example: Here's a recent listing that is very similar my home. They are asking $415/ft!
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/56-Prickly-Pear-92618/home/52956303

 

[ps99472]

@USC, so what's the current market like?  How much inventory?  My Redfin alert has been buzzing, lots of pending sale notifications and even the 100 days+ homes are going into escrow.

 

[gasman]

Seller's market, baby!  Game on...

 

[eyephone]

I got to say this: if your thinking about moving up to OH or HC and you have good amount equity, been there longer than 2 years for tax purposes, maybe you should sell now. (Sell before BP)