Oak Creek

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optimusprime_IHB

New member
One of my favorite and potential areas I am interested in purchasing a home in is Oak Creek.



So I ask the question to some of you here.. WTF is up with that area!?!?!? The prices seem to be sky high. Why is it sooo immune.



Just eyeballing the figures, it seems as though this area is only down about 10% from peak.



What is keeping the prices so high? Few comps knocking it down?
 
I own property in Oak Creek and live there.



Check www.toddm.com for RE listings.



Plan 1 at Oak Park tract sold for ~$450,000 in 2005 vs. ~$340,000 in late 2008.



This property south of Valley Oak was sold for $605,000 in 2005, and now listed at $499k:

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Alevera-St-92618/home/5918544">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Alevera-St-92618/home/5918544</a>



Where are you getting your 10% off math from?
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1232529329]I own property in Oak Creek and live there.



Check www.toddm.com for RE listings.



Plan 1 at Oak Park tract sold for ~$450,000 in 2005 vs. ~$340,000 in late 2008.



This property south of Valley Oak was sold for $605,000 in 2005, and now listed at $499k:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Alevera-St-92618/home/5918544



Where are you getting your 10% off math from?</blockquote>


Sorry for being vague but I'm talking about an actual house or townhouse...not a condo



I ran this search on Redfin

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=4,3,1&status=1&v=4&lat=33.673632050231525&long;=-117.77595457660793&zoomLevel=13&region_id=1977&region_type=1&market=socal">http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=4,3,1&status=1&v=4&lat=33.673632050231525&long;=-117.77595457660793&zoomLevel=13&region_id=1977&region_type=1&market=socal</a>



Or this one for example

<a href="http:// http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Brookhaven-92618/home/4746395">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Brookhaven-92618/home/4746395</a>



here's a nice condo..



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pinebrook-92618/home/5793674">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pinebrook-92618/home/5793674</a>
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1232528025]One of my favorite and potential areas I am interested in purchasing a home in is Oak Creek.



So I ask the question to some of you here.. WTF is up with that area!?!?!? The prices seem to be sky high. Why is it sooo immune.



Just eyeballing the figures, it seems as though this area is only down about 10% from peak.



What is keeping the prices so high? Few comps knocking it down?</blockquote>


Oak Creek has fallen way further than 10% off peak. For November and December closings, the average sale was a Case-Shiller equivlanet of 193 which would equate to almost 30% off peak... The number of sales there has been low though and the recent ones were mostly smaller properties. 37 Preston, which closed for $910K on 12/1/08, sold for 11% than its mid 2005 purchase price, putting it around 20-21% below peak.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1232529867]



Sorry for being vague but I'm talking about an actual house or townhouse...not a condo</blockquote>


See the Preston example I cited above. Also, consider 23 Pembroke, which sold on 12/1/08 for $720K. Originally purchased for $645K in September 2003 so the most recent sale puts it at over 30% off peak.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1232537627]ipo-



didn't SFR's in that area peak around CS=230?



maybe the condos went up to CS=270?</blockquote>


Nope. The CS index uses only SFRs.
 
[quote author="freedomCM" date=1232537627]ipo-



didn't SFR's in that area peak around CS=230?



maybe the condos went up to CS=270?</blockquote>


Not quite sure what you mean CM... If one takes the example of 37 Preston, it would like this:



12/00 original purchase - $497K with CS of 110

05/03 sale - $742K and a CS of 164 based on 12/00 original sale. Overall CS index in 05/03 was 152 so it was higher

06/05 sale - $1.018M and a CS of 225 based on 12/00 sale. Overall CS index in 06/05 was 246 so this was lower



Now, for it to have peaked at around CS of 230 it would mean no appreciation into 2006 when the rest of the market peaked wouldn't it? Are you suggesting that Oak Creek SFRs topped out in 2005, i.e. they weren't selling for any higher when the rest of the market peaked? I don't have any examples but I have to believe that this was probably not the case. Why would people drop $1.2-1.3M on Villa Rosa 2800sf homes in 2006 and not spend $1.1-1.2M on same sized places in Oak Creek?
 
what I was suggesting is that one might look at the tiered CS for these higher priced properties.



for example

2007 1 (below $400k)338.38 ($400-$600k)279.66 (above $600k)230.75 (avg) 268.68





since the price of these SFRs is so high, the proper comparison might be to the above $600k tertile, and the condos to the average.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1232529629]How does a single guy who spends all his time eating out afford to own multiple properties in Irvine?

momopi must be an FCB.</blockquote>


I started with $12,000 in savings and bought condos/townhomes in 1999-2002, then sold them in 2004-2006.



...and then I was dumb enough to park the $$ in mutual funds, which is doing very poorly right now.



<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/v/vhgex" alt="" />





My friends maxed out their credit to buy the biggest and most expensive homes they could afford (or even not afford) in 1998-2000. I couldn't bring myself to do that, so I only bought cheaper condos. After housing expenses, my buddy was basically living on Maruchan ramen. I'd drive to Irvine and go grocery shopping with him, finding a pack of marked-down chicken wings was a real treasure. We'd marinade & grill it in the oven, then eat it with seasoned instant noodle -- <em>pancit canton</em> style, on a plate.



If you ever watch <em>Gordon Ramsay's Kitchen Nightmares</em>, one of the running themes was making the most out of inexpensive ingredients. A good chef can turn fresh, inexpensive ingredients into tasty food, and waste little to nothing. Years ago, ox tail, chicken wing, lamb shanks, beef tendon, flank steak, etc. were all inexpensive poor man's food. My mother was a manager for Panda Express inside a Pavilions, where the fish department sold large bags of salmon heads (with lots of collar meat) for $1 to her. That's $1 for the whole bag, not $1/lb.



Today, with the popularity of ethnic cuisine and many TV chefs turning to these previously inexpensive ingredients, they've gotten a lot more expensive. Many markets sell ox tail for $5/lb and you have to shop carefully to find it for less. As most of you are aware, I'm a foodie, and my food budget probably takes a larger % chunk of my paycheque. So I have to budget carefully and shop around, buying groceries on sale and figuring out how to best use them.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1232529867][quote author="momopi" date=1232529329]I own property in Oak Creek and live there.



Check www.toddm.com for RE listings.



Plan 1 at Oak Park tract sold for ~$450,000 in 2005 vs. ~$340,000 in late 2008.



This property south of Valley Oak was sold for $605,000 in 2005, and now listed at $499k:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Alevera-St-92618/home/5918544



Where are you getting your 10% off math from?</blockquote>


Sorry for being vague but I'm talking about an actual house or townhouse...not a condo



I ran this search on Redfin

<a href="http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=4,3,1&status=1&v=4&lat=33.673632050231525&long;=-117.77595457660793&zoomLevel=13&region_id=1977&region_type=1&market=socal">http://www.redfin.com/search#uipt=4,3,1&status=1&v=4&lat=33.673632050231525&long;=-117.77595457660793&zoomLevel=13&region_id=1977&region_type=1&market=socal</a>



Or this one for example

<a href="http:// http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Brookhaven-92618/home/4746395">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/12-Brookhaven-92618/home/4746395</a>



here's a nice condo..



<a href="http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pinebrook-92618/home/5793674">http://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/9-Pinebrook-92618/home/5793674</a></blockquote>




If you go to www.toddm.com and check the Oak Creek listings, he has sales dating back to 2006. You can compare the sales price from 2006-2008 on a variety of properties.



I didn't have the $$$ to play with SFR's, so only tracked condos and townhomes, sorry. The high end properties like Cricket Club at Oak Creek has held its value well. For Oak Creek, I'd prefer properties between Alton and Barranca, north of Valley Oak -- away from 405 FWY and power lines.
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1232602819][quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1232529629]How does a single guy who spends all his time eating out afford to own multiple properties in Irvine?

momopi must be an FCB.</blockquote>


I started with $12,000 in savings and bought condos/townhomes in 1999-2002, then sold them in 2004-2006.



...and then I was dumb enough to park the $$ in mutual funds, which is doing very poorly right now.

</blockquote>
Sad face on your "Food Forever Fund".



But Mutuals are supposed to be longer term right? So you can enjoy unlimited Ramen in 20 years or so.



I guess I'm a foodie too... I just don't photograph my exploits.



So do you still own property now? Or are you waiting for another lull to rebuy? You should post in the "heart" of Irvine thread.
 
I'm also watching Oak Creek, but it seems the only people selling SFRs there now bought for 300-400K in 2000 and now trying to turn a nice 500-600K profit for 8-9 years of ownership. When they are out, there might be something for us there optimusprime :)
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1232642379]All that said, if I could get into a "Cliffs" plan 2, 3, or 4 at Brightwater for 1.1m I'd list my house tomorrow!</blockquote>


Really? <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/forums/viewthread/1188/">Have you read the Blightwater thread</a>? List your house now, $1.1m is going to happen there very soon. That is of course if you are willing to buy a completely sh*tty construction of a home. I wouldn't wish the quality of their homes on anyone who has ever posted on IHB.



Oh... wait... you have read the Blightwater thread, and you have posted several times there. Nevermind, you will get to buy there for that price. Just pick up your skirt and grab your balls and go offer the price you are willing to pay. Keep your hand on your balls, and just keep fighting to get the price you want. They would be stupid to not have a sale because of price.
 
[quote author="irvine_home_owner" date=1232606829]

Sad face on your "Food Forever Fund".

But Mutuals are supposed to be longer term right? So you can enjoy unlimited Ramen in 20 years or so.

I guess I'm a foodie too... I just don't photograph my exploits.

So do you still own property now? Or are you waiting for another lull to rebuy? You should post in the "heart" of Irvine thread.</blockquote>


I still own & live in a little condo in Oak Park/Oak Creek. This was the first brand new property I bought in 1999. It was small but it was all MINE. I ordered premium carpet & padding, CAT5 wiring throughout the house, brand new side by side fridge, washer and dryer from Lowes, etc. When I got the keys, I went in and rolled around on the carpet like cat.



...then I had to move back home to look after my grandfather, and my new carpet, appliances, paint, etc. all went to my first tenant. >_> I bought a couple more condos after that but it just wasn't the same. The feeling and excitement wasn't there anymore.



Years later, I finally moved back to my little condo, and now finally using the appliances I bought back in 1999-2000. Originally I had planned to buy a larger home in Irvine late this year, but with my funds in the gutter, it's not looking good and I'm not betting on a market recovery. The company that I work for is laying people off for the first time in ~80 year history, so I'm not even sure if I'd have a job by end of this year.
 
[quote author="garrison" date=1232642379][quote author="blackacre-seeker" date=1232634397]I'm also watching Oak Creek, but it seems the only people selling SFRs there now <strong>bought for 300-400K in 2000 and now trying to turn a nice 500-600K profit for 8-9 years of ownership.</strong> When they are out, there might be something for us there optimusprime :)</blockquote>


Guilty as charged :)



We bought in phase one of Cricket Club back in 2000, and I'm very surprised at how well the prices have been holding. I don't think many of us had to take on any type of toxic mortgages to qualify back in 2000 with such low prices. That's one of the reasons the neighborhoods have matured well, with relatively little turnover. We would ultimately like to move to a bigger place - but the more we look the more we appreciate a lot of the features of Oak Creek; quick access to the 405, close to the Spectrum, excellent pools and parks, relatively low Mello Roos, a new elementary school with a footbridge over Alton, and the fantastic Gelsons shopping plaza.

</blockquote>


Those are built by John Laing Homes right? On the same side of street as the shopping plaza? I recall visiting one floor plan with an office in the front that was very attractive to me, but the $400k price back in 2000 was too much for me. :(



When I first went to shop at Oak Creek, I thought it was going to be a golf course community, LoL. Turned out that the golf course was private and WAY over by Irvine Center Drive, and even our larger community park was located off to the corner by Barranca. What's with that?!?!? Why not put the Oak Creek Community Park and Golf Course closer to the 405 FWY and put homes by Barranca and Valley Oak instead? I'd prefer to see a Soccer field next to 405 FWY instead of homes. >_>



Do you remember when Quail Hill first opened? I thought it was nuts to see so many people lined up outside the sales office.
 
[quote author="momopi" date=1232678055]

Do you remember when Quail Hill first opened? I thought it was nuts to see so many people lined up outside the sales office.</blockquote>
Yep. And you couldn't even drive up to the models. You had to park in the front area and walk up to where the model homes were. This was for the homes on the lower Knollcrest side.



I also remember Northpark... you had to take a tourbus and get dropped off at various stations to view model homes.



Those days are long gone.
 
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