Newer Irvine listings with crazy WTF asking prices from equity sellers

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
First it was toilet paper
Then it was dumb bells
Then it was bicycles
Now it's real-estate.


Also....cars...there are no cars for sale now!


Actually TP and dumb bells are back.  I saw a lot of dumb bells at the Spectrum Target.
The other 3 not so much.



I bought a $1,000 computer 2 years ago.  The same 2 year old computer goes for $1,500 today....weird right?
 
Makes sense though.

Since most people are no longer commuting and can work from home, that money saved (gas, dry cleaning and can probably even give up a car) can be put towards mortgage.

Just really hard to buy a starter home or even move up.
 
USCTrojanCPA said:
Liar Loan said:
The problem is Irvine is not appreciating.  A new report just came out confirming that fact:
http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/New-OC-Irvine-April-2021-Market-Report-OCHN.pdf

(page 4) - Irvine prices down -1.1% this year
(page 6) - Irvine prices have been going down since mid-2019

Orange County as a whole is of course trending up so this is really an Irvine specific problem.
Click to expand...

Ummm, Irvine prices are up like 12-15% year over year so not sure what the article is talking about.  As we speak, are down around 3 WEEKS (not months) of inventory in Irvine and the only other time that happened in the recent past was in 2013 when prices last rocketed up.
Click to expand...

Please cite your data, not anecdotal hype.
 
MEDIAN_HOUSE_SQ_FT_BY_TIME.png



Taken from redfin today for 92604 $/sqft single house.
Looks like it's going up...
Plus all the houses getting 6+ bids, and sellers having an easy time selling...


Why do you think 2018 was the peak? prices are definitely higher today.
 
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.
https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview
Click to expand...

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?
Click to expand...

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.
 
Cares said:
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.
https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview
Click to expand...

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?
Click to expand...

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.
Click to expand...

Your source Realtor.com shows a decline in Irvine:

Median sold price March 2020: $945,000
Median sold price March 2021: $930,000
 
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
You are giga trolling if you are arguing that real estate is down in Irvine.
https://www.movoto.com/irvine-ca/market-trends/
https://www.redfin.com/city/9361/CA/Irvine/housing-market
https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Irvine_CA/overview
Click to expand...

Which of those sources supports USC's realtor hype of 12-15% gains YoY?
Click to expand...

No but it certainly doesn't support your narrative that the market is down. It is closer to 12-15% gain than it is to depreciation.
Click to expand...

Your source Realtor.com shows a decline in Irvine:

Median sold price March 2020: $945,000
Median sold price March 2021: $930,000
Click to expand...

Do you seriously think Irvine prices are down or flat from last year?  Have you not seen my offer thread?  I'm square in the middle of the madness of the market so I know what is going on first hand. but I can start pulling model match comps from 2020 and compare them to what the same floor plans are closing today. 
 
The Realtor.com data takes all homes to reach a median. My guess here is that given the sheer number of Condo closings relative to SFR's has compressed the Realtor.com information to show those results. Take true SFR to SFR and compare, or Condo to Condo and the picture will be completely different.

It's somewhat the same story for the numbers quoted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. They say this week that a 30 year fixed rates averages 3.17 percent for .30 cost. That's not a true picture as a purchase loan at $800k with an 810 FICO and a refinance loan of $150k with a 675 FICO will have widely different rates and costs - neither of them being at 3.17 percent by any stretch. They are dissimilar transactions using the same financial instrument and do not compare or average well.

This is to say that these average indicators are just that - indications of the present market, but ones that are unreliable and backwards looking.

My .02c
 
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020
 

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Cares said:
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020
Click to expand...

Because without a foil you're just talking to yourself.


We welcome all detractors so we can argue about why you're wrong.
 
Cares said:
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020
Click to expand...

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.
 
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020
Click to expand...

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.
Click to expand...

What? My only position ever was that prices were up in Irvine. Your position was that it was down. Who's right? Hint: there is a right and wrong answer here.
 
Liar Loan said:
Cares said:
I don't get what the point is arguing with this guy. The data speaks for itself and anecdotal experience speaks for itself.

Here's MLS sale data for Irvine latest 1 year, 3 months rolling.

All attached and detached +7.5%
$920k March 2021
$856k March 2020

All detached +11.2%
$1,265k March 2021
$1,138k March 2020
Click to expand...

If the data speaks for itself, then you should believe the data that you posted which shows Irvine languishing.

Only by creating your own custom MLS report, and filtering out those pesky property types that don't have the results you want, can you even get close to USC's fake numbers. 

In the past when USC posted raw data it also showed Irvine languishing since 2018, underperforming the rest of Orange County, and underperforming the rate of inflation (which means all cash buyers are losing money in real terms).  Are you telling me three years of subpar performance in Irvine is all due to condos?

Let's just admit it... You assumed the data was on his side without bothering to study it, and now you realize that both you and he were wrong.
Click to expand...

Here's some examples for you of model match closings and these are not even YOY but from 6-9 months ago...

Closed July 27th, 2020 for $1.7mhttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/70-Dunmore-92620/home/59935921

Closed March 19th, 2020 for $1.913m https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/71-Fenway-92620/home/51684702

That's a 12.3% increase that for the same exact floor plan in 8 months


Same exact home closed for $135k more ($995k vs $860k or 15.7% increase) than it 10 months ago (March 2021 vs May 2020)https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/37-Calypso-92618/home/40103161


Closed July 7th, 2020 for $979khttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/81-Wildvine-92618/home/112728533

Closed April 2nd, 2020 for $1.095mhttps://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/66-Wildvine-92618/home/112728645

That's a 11.8% increase that for the same exact floor plan in 9 months

I can keep going with specific examples but I think you get the idea.  I'm knee deep in the market and it's not just Irvine that is seeing significant prices increases, it's everywhere else.  If you think Irvine prices are down or even flat from last year, you are kidding yourself because every single home that I put an offer in on has 5-15 offers. If you think my numbers are "fake" then you must be living on a different planet.
 
Irvine price has definitely been up from what I've seen.

Also agree with USC that it's not just Irvine. It's everywhere else too.

But what's interesting to me is the price increase in Irvine seems to be less compared to a few other cities that I keep tabs on (in terms of % gain)

Eastvale (Riverside county)
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Corona/13229-Kara-Ct-92880/home/6575213#property-history

Sold in 2016 - 430k
Sold in 2021 - 775k

Even Aliso Viejo seems to have bigger % gain than Irvine
https://www.redfin.com/CA/Aliso-Viejo/32-Cliffwood-92656/home/4872206#property-history

Sold in 2016 - 739k
Sold in 2021 - 1155k

 
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