New homes in Portola Springs

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="PANDA" date=1225951071][quote author="no_vaseline" date=1225949802][quote author="PANDA" date=1225949593]Is there any chance that Portola Springs may lower their HOA and Mello Roos in order attract more buyers. I agree, it like throwing $12,000 down the toliet every year.</blockquote>


None.</blockquote>


Why? Has there never been a precedence where this has ever happened before in Irvine?</blockquote>


Panda, the only way the Mello Roos fees are going to go down is if the builder and/or developer prepay the taxes for you (this was done in some new communities up in Ventura). These taxes go to repay the principal and interest on bonds that have already been issued. So someone has to pay the bondholders. The odds are higher of me marrying Trooper in the State of California than they are for TIC to prepay some of those taxes on your behalf.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1225961883][quote author="High Gravity" date=1225954801]I spoke to a Taylor Morrison rep recently about Taylor Morrison's taking over three streets of lots from Pardee's defunct Prado development. The TM rep said the main reason Pardee pulled out is because TIC refused to grant Pardee's request to lower prices. I predict that at some time in the future TIC will have to cut prices as the market deteriorates but they seem to be firm enough now to cause a major builder to walk away. Of course, you can always look for resale homes and avoid the TIC cartel.</blockquote>


I have hard believing the TIC can fix the price that builders can unload their inventory for. I mean it is like manufacturing a product in China, and they are dictating to me what price I need sell the product to my end consumer. I would walk away and show them the bird. I had similar situation when i visited San Carlos. The Sales lady showed me some under the table prices and told me that TIC would slap their wrists if these prices were publically advertised. It seems that TIC is slowly drying the builders' blood. What happens when the builders run out of money to cover their overhead costs because TIC will not allow them to reduce their prices to move inventory?</blockquote>


It is true as they are a direct player in the profit participation and the pricing of all new homes with builders. In better times if a builder wanted to sell New Homes in Orange county you had to put up with TIC and Rancho Mission Viejo Co and take it or don't build in the OC. They have the land so they call the shots. When each new home closes a portion of the proceeds goes to TIC. What is happening since the TIC is trying to protect value in Irvine and the builders are taking in the shorts. So we will see a lot of builders folding and getting out of Irvine which will mean the resale market and forclosures will start dictating price not TIC.
 
[quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1226017933][quote author="PANDA" date=1225961883][quote author="High Gravity" date=1225954801]I spoke to a Taylor Morrison rep recently about Taylor Morrison's taking over three streets of lots from Pardee's defunct Prado development. The TM rep said the main reason Pardee pulled out is because TIC refused to grant Pardee's request to lower prices. I predict that at some time in the future TIC will have to cut prices as the market deteriorates but they seem to be firm enough now to cause a major builder to walk away. Of course, you can always look for resale homes and avoid the TIC cartel.</blockquote>


I have hard believing the TIC can fix the price that builders can unload their inventory for. I mean it is like manufacturing a product in China, and they are dictating to me what price I need sell the product to my end consumer. I would walk away and show them the bird. I had similar situation when i visited San Carlos. The Sales lady showed me some under the table prices and told me that TIC would slap their wrists if these prices were publically advertised. It seems that TIC is slowly drying the builders' blood. What happens when the builders run out of money to cover their overhead costs because TIC will not allow them to reduce their prices to move inventory?</blockquote>


It is true as they are a direct player in the profit participation and the pricing of all new homes with builders. In better times if a builder wanted to sell New Homes in Orange county you had to put up with TIC and Rancho Mission Viejo Co and take it or don't build in the OC. They have the land so they call the shots. When each new home closes a portion of the proceeds goes to TIC. What is happening since the TIC is trying to protect value in Irvine and the builders are taking in the shorts. So we will see a lot of builders folding and getting out of Irvine which will mean the resale market and forclosures will start dictating price not TIC.</blockquote>


Thanks OCCOBRA,



That makes a lot of sense. I think we are already sort of seeing that with the Manzanita Plans where resales are being priced much lower than the new construction prices. I thought Irvine Renter said that the new construction prices will set the tone for resale homes. Perhaps it is the other way around.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226022196][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1226017933][quote author="PANDA" date=1225961883][quote author="High Gravity" date=1225954801]I spoke to a Taylor Morrison rep recently about Taylor Morrison's taking over three streets of lots from Pardee's defunct Prado development. The TM rep said the main reason Pardee pulled out is because TIC refused to grant Pardee's request to lower prices. I predict that at some time in the future TIC will have to cut prices as the market deteriorates but they seem to be firm enough now to cause a major builder to walk away. Of course, you can always look for resale homes and avoid the TIC cartel.</blockquote>


I have hard believing the TIC can fix the price that builders can unload their inventory for. I mean it is like manufacturing a product in China, and they are dictating to me what price I need sell the product to my end consumer. I would walk away and show them the bird. I had similar situation when i visited San Carlos. The Sales lady showed me some under the table prices and told me that TIC would slap their wrists if these prices were publically advertised. It seems that TIC is slowly drying the builders' blood. What happens when the builders run out of money to cover their overhead costs because TIC will not allow them to reduce their prices to move inventory?</blockquote>


It is true as they are a direct player in the profit participation and the pricing of all new homes with builders. In better times if a builder wanted to sell New Homes in Orange county you had to put up with TIC and Rancho Mission Viejo Co and take it or don't build in the OC. They have the land so they call the shots. When each new home closes a portion of the proceeds goes to TIC. What is happening since the TIC is trying to protect value in Irvine and the builders are taking in the shorts. So we will see a lot of builders folding and getting out of Irvine which will mean the resale market and forclosures will start dictating price not TIC.</blockquote>


Thanks OCCOBRA,



That makes a lot of sense. I think we are already sort of seeing that with the Manzanita Plans where resales are being priced much lower than the new construction prices. I thought Irvine Renter said that the new construction prices will set the tone for resale homes. Perhaps it is the other way around.</blockquote>


Usually it is the price of new construction that leads the market. However, when there are no sales because builders are unable to lower prices to meet the market, it will be the foreclosures and resales that ultimately determine market prices. If the Irvine Company keeps holding to their wishing prices, we may not see any new construction in Irvine for 5-10 years or even longer.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226022196][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1226017933][quote author="PANDA" date=1225961883][quote author="High Gravity" date=1225954801]I spoke to a Taylor Morrison rep recently about Taylor Morrison's taking over three streets of lots from Pardee's defunct Prado development. The TM rep said the main reason Pardee pulled out is because TIC refused to grant Pardee's request to lower prices. I predict that at some time in the future TIC will have to cut prices as the market deteriorates but they seem to be firm enough now to cause a major builder to walk away. Of course, you can always look for resale homes and avoid the TIC cartel.</blockquote>


I have hard believing the TIC can fix the price that builders can unload their inventory for. I mean it is like manufacturing a product in China, and they are dictating to me what price I need sell the product to my end consumer. I would walk away and show them the bird. I had similar situation when i visited San Carlos. The Sales lady showed me some under the table prices and told me that TIC would slap their wrists if these prices were publically advertised. It seems that TIC is slowly drying the builders' blood. What happens when the builders run out of money to cover their overhead costs because TIC will not allow them to reduce their prices to move inventory?</blockquote>


It is true as they are a direct player in the profit participation and the pricing of all new homes with builders. In better times if a builder wanted to sell New Homes in Orange county you had to put up with TIC and Rancho Mission Viejo Co and take it or don't build in the OC. They have the land so they call the shots. When each new home closes a portion of the proceeds goes to TIC. What is happening since the TIC is trying to protect value in Irvine and the builders are taking in the shorts. So we will see a lot of builders folding and getting out of Irvine which will mean the resale market and forclosures will start dictating price not TIC.</blockquote>


Thanks OCCOBRA,



That makes a lot of sense. I think we are already sort of seeing that with the Manzanita Plans where resales are being priced much lower than the new construction prices. I thought Irvine Renter said that the new construction prices will set the tone for resale homes. Perhaps it is the other way around.</blockquote>


The new home projects that you are seeing are pre-bubble designs. Getting rid of the existing land and home inventory by price reduction so by 2010 everything would be all new design I believe in the goal of the developer. When existing home resale in a project that is still active the builder hates to see the forclosure price is way below the new home price. The strategy is to suspend the project and wait for the clearing of the foreclosures occurred in the earlier phases.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1226022658][quote author="PANDA" date=1226022196][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1226017933][quote author="PANDA" date=1225961883][quote author="High Gravity" date=1225954801]I spoke to a Taylor Morrison rep recently about Taylor Morrison's taking over three streets of lots from Pardee's defunct Prado development. The TM rep said the main reason Pardee pulled out is because TIC refused to grant Pardee's request to lower prices. I predict that at some time in the future TIC will have to cut prices as the market deteriorates but they seem to be firm enough now to cause a major builder to walk away. Of course, you can always look for resale homes and avoid the TIC cartel.</blockquote>


I have hard believing the TIC can fix the price that builders can unload their inventory for. I mean it is like manufacturing a product in China, and they are dictating to me what price I need sell the product to my end consumer. I would walk away and show them the bird. I had similar situation when i visited San Carlos. The Sales lady showed me some under the table prices and told me that TIC would slap their wrists if these prices were publically advertised. It seems that TIC is slowly drying the builders' blood. What happens when the builders run out of money to cover their overhead costs because TIC will not allow them to reduce their prices to move inventory?</blockquote>


It is true as they are a direct player in the profit participation and the pricing of all new homes with builders. In better times if a builder wanted to sell New Homes in Orange county you had to put up with TIC and Rancho Mission Viejo Co and take it or don't build in the OC. They have the land so they call the shots. When each new home closes a portion of the proceeds goes to TIC. What is happening since the TIC is trying to protect value in Irvine and the builders are taking in the shorts. So we will see a lot of builders folding and getting out of Irvine which will mean the resale market and forclosures will start dictating price not TIC.</blockquote>


Thanks OCCOBRA,



That makes a lot of sense. I think we are already sort of seeing that with the Manzanita Plans where resales are being priced much lower than the new construction prices. I thought Irvine Renter said that the new construction prices will set the tone for resale homes. Perhaps it is the other way around.</blockquote>


Usually it is the price of new construction that leads the market. However, when there are no sales because builders are unable to lower prices to meet the market, it will be the foreclosures and resales that ultimately determine market prices. If the Irvine Company keeps holding to their wishing prices, we may not see any new construction in Irvine for 5-10 years or even longer.</blockquote>


Man!! I guess Panda's Dream of owning in Orchard Hills and Laguna Crossing one day is going to be 10 - 15 year DREAM! I was also thinking in the same lines that we are not going to see any more new construction developements for a while. Seriously, the selection of homes to choose from in PS under $1M, with exception to Serra, Prado, and Las Colinas are pretty crappy in my opinion. What's up with the paired homes in Enclave 1? TIC should of put Los Arboles in Enclave 1 and put Paloma in Enclave 2.



Does anybody have any data on down payment and mortgage amount info on Portisol, Rosemoor ,and Villa Rosa home purchased in 2006? I guess i am looking for IR2's wonderful stats (2006 version) to possibly identify shadow inventories early on.
 
[quote author="PANDA" date=1226023934][ Seriously, the selection of homes to choose from in PS under $1M, with exception to Serra, Prado, and Las Colinas are pretty crappy in my opinion. </blockquote>


Neither Serra, Prado, nor Las Colinas are under $1 million.
 
[quote author="biscuitninja" date=1226024080]^^ BK, do you really think that the excess foreclosures will be resolved by 2010? At least, i'm hoping for it to be done by 2010.



-bix</blockquote>


The ideal situation for the developer is to have the foreclosed homes built between 2003-2007 sold so that the resales are a threat to all new 2010 design. Forclosures built prior to 2003 is too inferior in design to affect the novelty of a post bubble design.
 
[quote author="biscuitninja" date=1226024080]^^ BK, do you really think that the excess foreclosures will be resolved by 2010? At least, i'm hoping for it to be done by 2010.



-bix</blockquote>


Until we see unemployment start to taper off we are only going to see more foreclosures. This is the next wave that will sink values for years to come. Maybe another 3 to 4 years before we get to the bottom of this mess but i doubt it. In 4 to 5 years all these loan modifications that the banks are doing will start reseting to higher payments on these poor people. The faster we allow all the homes to foreclose without government intervention the better off we will be in the long run.
 
[quote author="Stuff It" date=1226026461]Does anyone have any figures on how much the Prado homes went for?</blockquote>
I think IR2 can get those.



I believe they all went for over $1mil.
 
I feel the pull of Portola Springs. Woodbury is getting very crowded. When I go up to Portola in reminds me of the placid place that Woodbury was 2 years ago.



However, I have some concerns 1) were you here for the fires last October? Close call for PS. 2) it looks like we can forget about the shopping center and the park for a long time 3)they are building the school but it is down in Stonegate accross Irvine Blvd from Irvine Town Center. Why there? It seems to be looking to cater to all the new apartment dwellers in the IAC units and finally as much as I like Paloma it is above Portola Pkwy with the Toll Road right there. Portola Springs is much better on the South side of P Pkwy in my opinion. Best plan on the South side in my view is Manzanita.
 
It seems to me that the north side of P Pkwy is a lot noisier with the two freeways, especially the homes near the onramp, and it would make more sense if TIC had put the higher density product that is on the south side now, to the north side, and put the lower density product that is on the north side now, to the southside. I like Paloma too, but it's hard to escape the noise of the freeways from anywhere on the north side.
 
Thanks for all the feedback. I think I'm steering clear of Portola Springs for awhile.



I think I'll stay at either Woodbury or Northwood II. I do have a quick question, though.



Is the Mello Roos rate locked in at Northwood II? Or does the rate vary depending on how much you pay for a house? If they paid 850K for a house in NWII and pay $500/month for Mello and I pay 700K for the same house, is my rate still $500/month?



I'm new to the homebuying process so any information is much appreciated.



Thanks
 
[quote author="junior74" date=1226149983]Thanks for all the feedback. I think I'm steering clear of Portola Springs for awhile.



I think I'll stay at either Woodbury or Northwood II. I do have a quick question, though.



Is the Mello Roos rate locked in at Northwood II? Or does the rate vary depending on how much you pay for a house? If they paid 850K for a house in NWII and pay $500/month for Mello and I pay 700K for the same house, is my rate still $500/month?



I'm new to the homebuying process so any information is much appreciated.



Thanks</blockquote>


as far as i know mello roos is based on sqft-age
 
[quote author="flmgrip" date=1226155141][quote author="junior74" date=1226149983]Thanks for all the feedback. I think I'm steering clear of Portola Springs for awhile.



I think I'll stay at either Woodbury or Northwood II. I do have a quick question, though.



Is the Mello Roos rate locked in at Northwood II? Or does the rate vary depending on how much you pay for a house? If they paid 850K for a house in NWII and pay $500/month for Mello and I pay 700K for the same house, is my rate still $500/month?



I'm new to the homebuying process so any information is much appreciated.



Thanks</blockquote>


as far as i know mello roos is based on sqft-age</blockquote>


Mello Roos is a standard rate for each lot in a particular builder's project, regardless of sqftage.



For example, all five floorplans for <strong><a href="http://floorplans.irvinerealtorsite.com/WestIrvine/Mandeville/">Mandeville </a></strong>(Lennar) pay the same $530/year even though they vary from 1459 to 1940sqft.



Likewise, the three flavors of <strong><a href="http://floorplans.irvinerealtorsite.com/WestIrvine/Concord/">Concord </a></strong>(Fieldstone) models, ranging from 2564 to 3103sqft, pay $1487/year.



Hope this helps.
 
I think it depends on the builder and the neighborhood.



In the paperwork for Columbus Grove there was a Special Assessment page that specified how much the taxes were. It was categorized by square footage. For that particular builder, they had models that were in one category and models in the other. So basically, a Plan 2 would cost less than a Plan 3.



This is isn't true for all builders as IR2 pointed out because most builders range of models will fit into a certain tax category but I think when you get to < 4000 sft and > 4000 sft... it does have a variation. And since CoG MRs were so high... it made you second guess getting that model that was only 300 sft bigger but thousands more per year in taxes.
 
[quote author="junior74" date=1226149983]Is the Mello Roos rate locked in at Northwood II? Or does the rate vary depending on how much you pay for a house? If they paid 850K for a house in NWII and pay $500/month for Mello and I pay 700K for the same house, is my rate still $500/month?

</blockquote>
Unlike the base property tax, Mello Roos and Special Assessments are fixed and not a percentage of the purchase price. If the owner is paying $500 a month currently... you should be paying the same amount too.
 
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