New Home Sales are Dead

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
<p><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/20823060/site/14081545/">Here is an update on the numbers.</a></p>

<p>They have 2100 homes that went into contract but only 400 with deposits. That means that 1700 people were not serious enough to actually fork over their own cash for it. I would also imagine with the mortgage market a minimum of 30% will fallout if not more like 50% which would put them at their number of 1000 homes. But with only 400 deposits that is the real sales number and the builder I worked for wouldn't count the contract without a copy of the deposit check. Diana Olick should call HOV tomorrow and ask them how many checks they have received since the weekend.</p>
 
graphrix - How could you be so cynical? Don't you understand that the offices were so busy that they just did not have time to get checks from the other 1700 people? And all 2100, (hmm-m-m, a round number), will close, and those folks will tell others what a great deal they got from Hovanian. The bottom is in.<p>


Here is a bit of trivia for y'all. Round numbers on a tax return are a flag to the IRS that amounts are not documented and may be creative accounting.
 
<p>Old sales addage. Never count a sale until it is closed.</p>

<p>Never count a home sale until you can legally transfer the property to another party.</p>

<p>So far they have sold 0 houses. They have 400 people that gave them a deposit....are the deposits refundable?</p>

<p>Then 1700 people said hey I'll sign up as long as I don't have to give you any money. LOL.</p>

<p>I am calling my boss up to see if we can change my comp plan to include sales like this. I will be rich.</p>
 
<p>Re: Graphrix's link</p>

<p>I once knew someone that lived out in the IE. Yet, drove 2 hours to work in the OC. He would be get frustrated because while he's at work. His neighbors would drink and leave beer cans on his lawn. Hahaha. Also, the neighbors would throw rocks at his windows to set off the home alarms. He had to leave work on numerous occasions, just to find out they were false alarms. </p>
 
<p>In some desirable areas of SoCal outside of Orange County, I have seen the price history of a number of big vacant buildable lots in the mountains which looked something like this:</p>

<p>1984 sold for $20,000</p>

<p>1989 sold for 200,000 by someone who started the permit process while trying to flip it.</p>

<p>1991 sold as a REO for 40,000 to someone who continued with permits and entitlements</p>

<p>1993 sold again for $18,000</p>

<p>2001 sold by someone advertising "expired permits and geos" for $30,000</p>

<p>2005 sold by someone in the process of getting new valid permits for $600,000</p>

<p>2007 foreclosure notice in the local papers, has three loans totalling $800,000 on this lot, and 12 others in similar positions</p>

<p> </p>
 
Indeed they are. I recently heard that Andalucia in Woodbury and Sienna in Woodbury East are postponing their openings until sometime in the beginning of 2008. I wonder if that will be the same timeline Pardee's Prado is on in Portola Springs. That place was supposed to open in the "beginning" of 2007 and still isn't open. Hmpf.
 
You are right Eval... I got post cards from both Andalucia and Sienna stating that their opennings have been postponed to Q1 of 2008. It is interesting to note that the model homes for Andalucia have already been completed. I won't be surprised that they will postpone again when Q1 of '08 comes around.



I actually think it is good that builders are postponing the new tracks help out the new home inventory build up.



Villa Rose at woodbury also postponed their next phase release to Q1 of next year.
 
<p>IR, I guess if builder stop entirely, then there will be less inventory, and new home price slide will slow down. The reason the prices at Tustin field area ( VOC, etc) have come down so much so fast, is because no one controls the price other than the builder. </p>
 
<p>In the middle Florida Keys, there we 8, count'em 8 sales in the last month or so. This is roughly equivalent to zero.</p>

<p>There are 4 real estate law firms serving this area. That's 2 closings apiece.</p>

<p>The Keys has been appreciating outrageously for years. But, we thought, there was a reason. Some 5-10 years ago, the Monroe County, where the Fla keys are, severely limited bldg permits. For the very good reasons that too many people would ruin the ecology for everybody, and the Keys couldn't be evacuated in the case of hurricane.</p>

<p>Limit the supply and the price goes up. Makes sense, right?</p>

<p>Well, if you can't sell in the Keys, you can't sell anywhere in south Florida.</p>

<p> </p>

<p> </p>
 
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