Mawesome Sauce
Member
Supreme Court would overrule that, granted it would take a year and slow the whole process down again.
New communities in Portola Springs
- Thread starter abhinata
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
To answer your questions:
a) Arbor will be detached condo (very similar to Hillside, both floorplan and size wise), Olivewood is SFR, similar to Azul.
b) They were slated to be released this fall, but it looks like construction has paused. It looks like the Forza models are ready, but not sure when they will open. I think I've heard spring 2023 somewhere before. Marea models haven't even been built yet, and I believe they most likely won't be built until the housing market picks up again.
c) You can see the floorplans for them in posts #681 (Forza) and #682 (Marea).
Marea:
Plan 1 - 2133 sq ft. 3 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 2 - 2347 sq ft. 4 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 3 - 2420 sq ft. 4 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 4 - 2410 sq ft. 3 bd / 2.5 ba / loft
Forza:
Plan 1 - 2876 sq ft. 4bd / 3ba / loft
Plan 2 - 2988 sq ft. 4bd / 3ba / loft
Plan 3 - 3227 sq ft. 4bd / 4.5 ba / family room
d) My guess is Marea pricing will be similar to Hillside, so probably around $1.6M-$1.8M. And Forza probably starts at $2.1M for Plan 1 and goes up to $2.4M for Plan 3.
As for Azul and Cielo prices coming down in 2023, that's not going to happen. IP is not going to reduce their price, no matter what happens. They would rather pause construction, as you've seen, than releasing new homes at lower prices. In fact, from getting the price sheet on 12/18/22, they took away homesites 7-9 and 29-30, which were shown (9 and 29-30) on the sales map on the price sheet from 11/18/22. Those vacant lots you're seeing is most likely due to slowing/pausing construction rather than supply chain issues, I believe.
At first I hated IP’s strategy of not lowering prices to compensate for rising rates (selfishly, because I want in to a view lot). But the more I reflect, IP’s strategy is kind of good in a way for existing IP homeowners. I’m not a realtor like a lot of you so correct me if I’m wrong - but it seems to me that by not decreasing prices on new releases in new communities (eg Azul and Cielo), at least existing IP home values (eg Highland) don’t decrease a ton. And they don’t risk having looking desperate or backtracking on their anticipated profits in partially built communities (eg Azul, Cielo) either. Meanwhile, they can still lower opening phase prices on yet to be built communities (Marea, Forza) to compensate for higher rates, without looking desperate.
Also re the unfinished homes in Highland - my apologies for not being clearer. I’m saying there are three homes, already built, stucco and landscaping done, on Whipporwill that when you walk by, still have protecting tape on the doorstoops and when you peek in, have no flooring yet. So confused what’s going on. They’ve been sitting like that for months and months now. Those are the housss I can’t figure out. I feel like they must have been reserved already. Aren’t the buyers for those homes frustrated that their home isn’t done yet? Or are people dropping out and losing their deposit because their locks expired? Just seems weird that there are three homes in a row like that.
Also… Go Bears!! And long live Top Dog
Even though IP can control the prices of the new homes that they sell, they can't control the prices of homes on the open market. Can they pause and walk to build? Of course they can because they've done it before but that will not prevent market prices from drifting lower as we move forward in 2023. Other builders outside of Irvine Ranch, like over at Great Park, are discounting their homes to sell them because they don't have the luxury of being able to pause construction and waiting for prices to come back up like IP does. That being said, I've heard that IP is having more cancellations than sales in the past few months so they are not immune to the market decline.
They'll mothball it until the market picks back up.
We want to upgrade to Cielo 1 from Bluffs 2, but we need more time to get enough money for the down payment. The fact that IP is slowing down or pausing construction will help us. If they decided to lower prices, they might sell out before we can afford to buy it.
I think IP is purposely slowing down construction on Whipporwill due to (1) slowing releases, (2) no reservation on the homes, or (3) cancellations. However, I still find it strange that they're pausing construction. It seems to be a better option to have at least roof cover so the materials inside don't get wet. But if there's no flooring yet, maybe they're not concerned about that.
They're still finishing up building the homes that they have already started at Azul and Cielo, even though there's no reservation on them (even un-released some of them) so I figured they would do the same at Highland.
Top Dog was the best hot dogs I've had.
I'm sure most plans had driveways until people started buying them without and IP was like... PROFIT!
Exactly, IP's attitude is if you don't want to buy it they'll want for FCBs to come along and buy because they like the ease of buying new homes and for many of them the ultimate goal is to get the money out of China and into their new Irvine piggy bank home. That is why Irvine Company advertises so heavily in China and that is their ultimate target buyer.
sleepy5136
Well-known member
I hope you're right. But supreme court folks are humans too. No one wants to be known for causing a huge foreclosure like 2008-2009 again
Mawesome Sauce
Member
2008-2009 was criminal intent (Fraud). This would be people over leveraging. Whether their ignorance is a valid excuse is not relevant to the court. But you are right... people are crazy these days. I'm sure Fed officials and the judges are worried for their safety these days. But I still stand by that Powell wants his legacy to be Volcker 2.0. He really is going all in on crushing inflation at any cost.
Hi. We purchased in Highland. Were thinking of getting a view lot in Azul or Cielo before rates went bonkers. Also didn’t really love the upstairs floor plans on those compared to Highland.
Then a couple weeks ago we noticed two new tracts off Big Dipper. The signs on the barbed wire fence say Olivewood and Arbor… but are these actually Marea and Forza? Any idea
a) if these will be SFR/detached condo and
b) when they’ll be released?
c) what their floorplan will be like?
d) guesstimates on pricing?
Also, any new thoughts on whether Cielo and Azul prices will start coming down in 2023? From emails and just driving by seems like construction is slowing, but I’m no expert.
Finally there are some houses we’ve noticed in Highland one street behind the lots where the foundations are being laid, which are built but remain completely vacant. Any ideas if people dropped out of escrow or if IP is having supply chain issues on flooring or something?
Thanks a million for any insight!
Then a couple weeks ago we noticed two new tracts off Big Dipper. The signs on the barbed wire fence say Olivewood and Arbor… but are these actually Marea and Forza? Any idea
a) if these will be SFR/detached condo and
b) when they’ll be released?
c) what their floorplan will be like?
d) guesstimates on pricing?
Also, any new thoughts on whether Cielo and Azul prices will start coming down in 2023? From emails and just driving by seems like construction is slowing, but I’m no expert.
Finally there are some houses we’ve noticed in Highland one street behind the lots where the foundations are being laid, which are built but remain completely vacant. Any ideas if people dropped out of escrow or if IP is having supply chain issues on flooring or something?
Thanks a million for any insight!
CalBears96
Well-known member
I noticed the name change while taking weekend walks with my wife. IIRC, Arbor is tract 19175 and Olivewood is tract 19176. Per Master Plan, tract 19175 was Marea and 19176 was Forza, so it should be them.
To answer your questions:
a) Arbor will be detached condo (very similar to Hillside, both floorplan and size wise), Olivewood is SFR, similar to Azul.
b) They were slated to be released this fall, but it looks like construction has paused. It looks like the Forza models are ready, but not sure when they will open. I think I've heard spring 2023 somewhere before. Marea models haven't even been built yet, and I believe they most likely won't be built until the housing market picks up again.
c) You can see the floorplans for them in posts #681 (Forza) and #682 (Marea).
Marea:
Plan 1 - 2133 sq ft. 3 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 2 - 2347 sq ft. 4 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 3 - 2420 sq ft. 4 bd / 2.5 ba
Plan 4 - 2410 sq ft. 3 bd / 2.5 ba / loft
Forza:
Plan 1 - 2876 sq ft. 4bd / 3ba / loft
Plan 2 - 2988 sq ft. 4bd / 3ba / loft
Plan 3 - 3227 sq ft. 4bd / 4.5 ba / family room
d) My guess is Marea pricing will be similar to Hillside, so probably around $1.6M-$1.8M. And Forza probably starts at $2.1M for Plan 1 and goes up to $2.4M for Plan 3.
As for Azul and Cielo prices coming down in 2023, that's not going to happen. IP is not going to reduce their price, no matter what happens. They would rather pause construction, as you've seen, than releasing new homes at lower prices. In fact, from getting the price sheet on 12/18/22, they took away homesites 7-9 and 29-30, which were shown (9 and 29-30) on the sales map on the price sheet from 11/18/22. Those vacant lots you're seeing is most likely due to slowing/pausing construction rather than supply chain issues, I believe.
Mawesome Sauce
Member
If housing hits a decade long peak, will IP still pause and not build… I have to wonder here
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
History proves they can and will. Orchard Hills was supposed to be built a long time ago.
Housing styles and fashions change over a decade. Does that mean that they have to revise their building plans and floor plans to accommodate that if they pause building? Did they do that when waiting to build OH?
Thank you so much for the awesome, detailed response @CalBears96!
At first I hated IP’s strategy of not lowering prices to compensate for rising rates (selfishly, because I want in to a view lot). But the more I reflect, IP’s strategy is kind of good in a way for existing IP homeowners. I’m not a realtor like a lot of you so correct me if I’m wrong - but it seems to me that by not decreasing prices on new releases in new communities (eg Azul and Cielo), at least existing IP home values (eg Highland) don’t decrease a ton. And they don’t risk having looking desperate or backtracking on their anticipated profits in partially built communities (eg Azul, Cielo) either. Meanwhile, they can still lower opening phase prices on yet to be built communities (Marea, Forza) to compensate for higher rates, without looking desperate.
Also re the unfinished homes in Highland - my apologies for not being clearer. I’m saying there are three homes, already built, stucco and landscaping done, on Whipporwill that when you walk by, still have protecting tape on the doorstoops and when you peek in, have no flooring yet. So confused what’s going on. They’ve been sitting like that for months and months now. Those are the housss I can’t figure out. I feel like they must have been reserved already. Aren’t the buyers for those homes frustrated that their home isn’t done yet? Or are people dropping out and losing their deposit because their locks expired? Just seems weird that there are three homes in a row like that.
Also… Go Bears!! And long live Top Dog
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Even though IP can control the prices of the new homes that they sell, they can't control the prices of homes on the open market. Can they pause and walk to build? Of course they can because they've done it before but that will not prevent market prices from drifting lower as we move forward in 2023. Other builders outside of Irvine Ranch, like over at Great Park, are discounting their homes to sell them because they don't have the luxury of being able to pause construction and waiting for prices to come back up like IP does. That being said, I've heard that IP is having more cancellations than sales in the past few months so they are not immune to the market decline.
potsticker
Active member
Construction over at OHV4 looks like it's slowed. Not sure if it's because of the rain and holidays...but not as much activity over the past couple weeks.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
They'll mothball it until the market picks back up.
CalBears96
Well-known member
As Martin pointed out, IP can't really affect the value of the resale homes.
We want to upgrade to Cielo 1 from Bluffs 2, but we need more time to get enough money for the down payment. The fact that IP is slowing down or pausing construction will help us. If they decided to lower prices, they might sell out before we can afford to buy it.
I think IP is purposely slowing down construction on Whipporwill due to (1) slowing releases, (2) no reservation on the homes, or (3) cancellations. However, I still find it strange that they're pausing construction. It seems to be a better option to have at least roof cover so the materials inside don't get wet. But if there's no flooring yet, maybe they're not concerned about that.
They're still finishing up building the homes that they have already started at Azul and Cielo, even though there's no reservation on them (even un-released some of them) so I figured they would do the same at Highland.
Top Dog was the best hot dogs I've had.
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
If it it means more units per lot of land... yes... but if the same plans still sell.. they won't change a thing other than trying to give you less for more.
I'm sure most plans had driveways until people started buying them without and IP was like... PROFIT!
CalBears96
Well-known member
I guess we can blame FivePoint and GP for that.
sleepy5136
Well-known member
As USC mentioned, they cannot control market price of resale homes. Sure, these homes are at most 1-8 years older, but they do describe the current market conditions. So IP can try to sell the homes of what they feel it should go for, but as a buyer, you should be keeping track of what market price would be before pulling the trigger. You also need to factor in landscaping costs, window treatments, flooring (if not done by builder), etc where as resale homes generally have these all done already.
With that said, the target buyer for IP is not locals that live here, it's FCB. FCBs that have money think it's a bargain to buy here so it doesn't matter what the price is as it's going to be significantly cheaper than what they can get in their home country.
With that said, the target buyer for IP is not locals that live here, it's FCB. FCBs that have money think it's a bargain to buy here so it doesn't matter what the price is as it's going to be significantly cheaper than what they can get in their home country.
The Motor Court Company
Well-known member
honestly I don't think the floorpans and overall layout will change much...they already take away driveways and have minimum setbacks (maybe zero lot lines for detached?) inside you cannot optimize much, L shaped Great room + dining + kitchen downstairs, plus optional 4th BR/BA downstairs and optional LOFT or vaulted ceiling upstairs.
makes sense. they just need to slow down to meet the FCB demand and will be just fine. FCBs like brand new homes.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
Exactly, IP's attitude is if you don't want to buy it they'll want for FCBs to come along and buy because they like the ease of buying new homes and for many of them the ultimate goal is to get the money out of China and into their new Irvine piggy bank home. That is why Irvine Company advertises so heavily in China and that is their ultimate target buyer.
CalBears96
Well-known member
I don't think IP took away driveways before GP. They only started doing these detached condos with Lago at OH, Bluffs/Hillside and now Fiore at PS.
marmott
Active member
Zero lot lines SFH has been tried out in Eastwood by Brookfield if my memory serves me well with a pretty bad track record. They had to move away from it after the first phases didn't sell well.