needs to be asked every year...what are the indications for 2017?

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
eyephone said:
momopi said:
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.

Maybe he hasn't read the Toyota moving to Texas thread.  ;)

Maybe he isn't referring to manufacturing.  There's a lot of tech/biomedical/financial jobs in the vicinity. 
 
paydawg said:
eyephone said:
momopi said:
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.

Maybe he hasn't read the Toyota moving to Texas thread.  ;)

Maybe he isn't referring to manufacturing.  There's a lot of tech/biomedical/financial jobs in the vicinity.

Too bad the new president doesn't believe TTP will be beneficial to those companies.
 
paydawg said:
eyephone said:
momopi said:
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.

Maybe he hasn't read the Toyota moving to Texas thread.  ;)

Maybe he isn't referring to manufacturing.  There's a lot of tech/biomedical/financial jobs in the vicinity.

CA state income tax and California regulations
 
If you are worried about overpaying... then buy new, because at least you know everyone else around you paid the same price and that baseline will make it hard for your neighbors to discount in the near future.
 
Plus, another thing to remember, not in your case (since you are a first time buyer), but if you already own a home and will be selling it for your new place, then it doesn't matter a whole lot. If the market is down, you buy your next house for less, but also sell your house for less. So in those cases, the only way it works out is if you are on the sidelines (yes there are other nominal benefits, if you are moving up, but not a lot). 
 
Don't stress about prices. If you're ready (20%+ down with low DTIs), then buy something you can reasonably see yourself living in for at least 5+ years. It's not an investment. Even a new house will burn your cashflow for a couple years (furniture, built-ins, landscaping, etc.).

I have renting friends who are waiting for another big (20%+) downturn in house prices. Every one of them buys new luxury cars every 2-3 years. They stress about paying too much for a house because they could "lose" tens of thousands of dollars. Yet they have no problem losing tens of thousands on the pleasure of driving nice new lux cars.
 
Perspective said:
I have renting friends who are waiting for another big (20%+) downturn in house prices. Every one of them buys new luxury cars every 2-3 years. They stress about paying too much for a house because they could "lose" tens of thousands of dollars. Yet they have no problem losing tens of thousands on the pleasure of driving nice new lux cars.

I hear this all the time too. Can't help but shake my head.
 
best_potsticker_in_town said:
Perspective said:
I have renting friends who are waiting for another big (20%+) downturn in house prices. Every one of them buys new luxury cars every 2-3 years. They stress about paying too much for a house because they could "lose" tens of thousands of dollars. Yet they have no problem losing tens of thousands on the pleasure of driving nice new lux cars.

I hear this all the time too. Can't help but shake my head.
It's human nature. It's tough to save when you have extra funds and there are tons of "wants" being thrown at you with heavy marketing.
When you buy a house and in debt, those "wants" suddenly don't feel as appealing,..
 
eyephone said:
Perspective said:
It's not an investment.

But many people do.

(Not me of course)

It's just a forced savings account for the vast majority of us. You can begin calling it an "investment" once the mortgage is paid off. The dividend from the investment is the imputed rent you don't have to pay.
 
Compressed-Village said:
If you turn it into a rental, the renter(s) will be making the mortgage for you if you decide to move on. A nice way to bank your money.

You are right.  That might be a nice solution. 

If you sell, you are looking at $150k profit probably in today's market, but where do you move? Stay in Irvine? you are looking at a guarantee downgrade right now

Now if you are okay to downgrade or move nearby/elsewhere than Irvine, you can pocket the $150k and do that or even rent for like $2000 a month...but if you like your standard of living and your family is happy, $150k  might not be enough to move.  Maybe just pay it off and pass it down to your kids
 
noMoneyBackin2011 said:
first time buyer; didn't have a downpayment back in the day.  Today i can do 20-25% on 650K, and came across willow in PS.

as I did some research, I saw that pricing for willow has gone up quite a bit.  That led to something bigger: the huge massive increase in pricing the past few years.  I'd kill for that pricing.

What could have been purchased for 650K in 2014 is so much more than what you can get today.

Are we looking at a bad time to buy?  Are there any interesting indications, or am I just another N+1 asking for a crystal ball?

Looking back is a natural but futile exercise. If you have the means (ie. down payment and reasonable DTI ratio) as well as a decent time horizon of at least 5-7 years, then it is always a good time to buy. You have a roof over your head and own real estate in one of the most geographically desirable locations in the world. Rents are increasing so buying is a good hedge for that as well as inflation overall.  Again this is only if you find something that you can comfortably make payments on. 
 
BruinDoc said:
noMoneyBackin2011 said:
first time buyer; didn't have a downpayment back in the day.  Today i can do 20-25% on 650K, and came across willow in PS.

as I did some research, I saw that pricing for willow has gone up quite a bit.  That led to something bigger: the huge massive increase in pricing the past few years.  I'd kill for that pricing.

What could have been purchased for 650K in 2014 is so much more than what you can get today.

Are we looking at a bad time to buy?  Are there any interesting indications, or am I just another N+1 asking for a crystal ball?

Looking back is a natural but futile exercise. If you have the means (ie. down payment and reasonable DTI ratio) as well as a decent time horizon of at least 5-7 years, then it is always a good time to buy. You have a roof over your head and own real estate in one of the most geographically desirable locations in the world. Rents are increasing so buying is a good hedge for that as well as inflation overall.  Again this is only if you find something that you can comfortably make payments on.

Yeah I'll be living with siblings - that is how I'd comfortably make rent. 
Otherwise, even 20-25% on 650K puts you at almost 4K/month once you account for everything including utilities.  I'm not sure how many do that in Orange County - most people I know are married DINKS and that is how they pull it off. 

 
Back in 2015 when we bought, we felt the same way looking at the prices from 2014 or even early 2015.

But now it's 2017 and if we didn't buy, then we wouldn't be able to afford the home we are in now.

We bought not because we wanted to get the best price and time the market. We bought because we needed a home and it was in our price range.

If you are in it for the longer term with the home, just buy it when you can afford it. No need to chase because "homes go up forever". But in the long term, you can except homes to at least follow inflation and continue to increase in prices.

The most recent trend is to see homes not increase in price relatively, but rather they will take away the common things that you never saw as amenities like your own driveway, front yard, rear yard, tub etc etc.
 
Loco_local said:
paydawg said:
eyephone said:
momopi said:
ArchPhotog said:
qwerty said:
Bad time to buy.

Could be.

Though with this nationalist movement there will definitely be more jobs coming back home (even Apple is researching manufacturing the iPhone here). Where is the best place to do business in SoCal? Arguably Irvine.

Lots of factors make Irvine a solid bet. I don't see it losing any appeal anytime soon.


If I wanted to open manufacturing facility, it wouldn't be in California.

Maybe he hasn't read the Toyota moving to Texas thread.  ;)

Maybe he isn't referring to manufacturing.  There's a lot of tech/biomedical/financial jobs in the vicinity.

Too bad the new president doesn't believe TTP will be beneficial to those companies.

The TPP is more about boxing out China in asia and reinforcing the "stronghold" that the US has over there. Of course at a cost to the US.

But now that the new US gov is being self centered, China will have its opportunities to increase its ties with all the surroundings countries including ones in NA like Mexico and Canada.

Hooray for protectionism policies /s
 
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