Trooper_IHB
New member
CK, that's hysterical ! Love it !
My recent over the top, and somewhat bitter rants
- Thread starter graphrix_IHB
- Start date
NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
kcmkane_IHB
New member
Thanks, Troop. I was actually just testing graph had his asshat sensor tuned up with that post....no response yet, guess I am going to have to try harder to score a 10....
graphrix_IHB
New member
LOL, that didn't even read on the asshat meter. But, it did make me laugh. I'm glad the tone has changed, and we can have some fun. I would much rather laugh than rant.
Graphrix, I don't really know you, but do hope you will take this advice in the spirit that it is intended.
First of all, I'd like to take a moment to thank you for the time you have spent on this blog. The quality of your work (and that of Irvine Renter, Zovall, and everyone who contributes) is apparent by the increasing popularity of the blog. When you combine the amount of time you spend here with the limited focus of the primary blog (how long can you talk about real estate without repeating yourself?), and the constant influx of new people as word of the quality of this site brings in new members, it's no surprise that you feel that the topics started here are becoming redundant. There are only two ways I can think of to make things fresh again - spend less time here, or start introducing non-real estate related topics. (At least in the forums) Of the two solutions, I believe your contributions are respected enough that most people will hope that you choose the latter, not the former. Of course, you could probably use help from everyone in reducing redundancy.
But on to the meat of what I wanted to say to you.
I'm not in the real estate industry. It is far easier for me to look at what is happening around me from an academic standpoint because I moved here at the height of the bubble (July 2005) so I don't own property here. Because my job isn't even remotely related to the real estate industry, the carnage in the financial, construction, and real estate industries does nothing but good things for me personally. But I have worked in a cyclical industry that has experienced nasty downturns, and have survived more layoffs than I care to think about. (I'm into database architecture, design and development, but I specialize in the defense industry)
There are two things that I learned from my years in defense (I was in the industry for all but 6 months of the 90's). The first thing is that longevity at your current position can be increased by making yourself difficult to replace. Taking on extra responsibilities and branching out of the domain you were hired into are two ways to move down the list of the next people to be laid off. The second is that you have to take an honest look at your skills and the future of your industry and find ways to make yourself portable to an industry that either isn't as cyclical, or one that is in an uptrend.
As for the recession, first of all it hasn't started yet. But it is looking like a recession is unavoidable. But rather than hating the recession, you should hate Alan Greenspan for refusing to let us enter mild recessions in the past. Contraction is part of the normal business cycle. Though blowing bubbles can help you avoid some near term pain, you always end up paying the piper. We face a very real possibility of having a Japan-like experience because of loose monetary policy during the 90's. Creation and destruction are normal parts of capitalism, and you can't have the good without going through the bad. Though it appears that Bernanke is picking up the policies of Alan Greenspan, I hope that whoever replaces Bernanke has more sense.
Anyway, I saw the conversations that led to this thread, and I don't think of you as being bitter or over the top. And if you ever start to feel that way, just remember that there are a lot more people who appreciate your work than there are people who don't respect your opinion.
First of all, I'd like to take a moment to thank you for the time you have spent on this blog. The quality of your work (and that of Irvine Renter, Zovall, and everyone who contributes) is apparent by the increasing popularity of the blog. When you combine the amount of time you spend here with the limited focus of the primary blog (how long can you talk about real estate without repeating yourself?), and the constant influx of new people as word of the quality of this site brings in new members, it's no surprise that you feel that the topics started here are becoming redundant. There are only two ways I can think of to make things fresh again - spend less time here, or start introducing non-real estate related topics. (At least in the forums) Of the two solutions, I believe your contributions are respected enough that most people will hope that you choose the latter, not the former. Of course, you could probably use help from everyone in reducing redundancy.
But on to the meat of what I wanted to say to you.
I'm not in the real estate industry. It is far easier for me to look at what is happening around me from an academic standpoint because I moved here at the height of the bubble (July 2005) so I don't own property here. Because my job isn't even remotely related to the real estate industry, the carnage in the financial, construction, and real estate industries does nothing but good things for me personally. But I have worked in a cyclical industry that has experienced nasty downturns, and have survived more layoffs than I care to think about. (I'm into database architecture, design and development, but I specialize in the defense industry)
There are two things that I learned from my years in defense (I was in the industry for all but 6 months of the 90's). The first thing is that longevity at your current position can be increased by making yourself difficult to replace. Taking on extra responsibilities and branching out of the domain you were hired into are two ways to move down the list of the next people to be laid off. The second is that you have to take an honest look at your skills and the future of your industry and find ways to make yourself portable to an industry that either isn't as cyclical, or one that is in an uptrend.
As for the recession, first of all it hasn't started yet. But it is looking like a recession is unavoidable. But rather than hating the recession, you should hate Alan Greenspan for refusing to let us enter mild recessions in the past. Contraction is part of the normal business cycle. Though blowing bubbles can help you avoid some near term pain, you always end up paying the piper. We face a very real possibility of having a Japan-like experience because of loose monetary policy during the 90's. Creation and destruction are normal parts of capitalism, and you can't have the good without going through the bad. Though it appears that Bernanke is picking up the policies of Alan Greenspan, I hope that whoever replaces Bernanke has more sense.
Anyway, I saw the conversations that led to this thread, and I don't think of you as being bitter or over the top. And if you ever start to feel that way, just remember that there are a lot more people who appreciate your work than there are people who don't respect your opinion.
graphrix_IHB
New member
WINEX,
Thank you for your kind words, not only to me, but to the rest of the contributors to the blog/forums. I am just a very small portion of the greatness of this blog/forums, and I am thankful, that zovall and IR asked me to be a part of it. I wish I had the time to contribute to the blog more, but I don't, and I really do not know how IR does it. It really is amazing, knowing about his life, that he has the time to do the well thought out posts that he does. If you are as anal retentive as me, then taking the time to do a blog post takes some time. I have been saying for 6 months, or more, about doing a post on the foreclosures.
I understand the cyclical part of the business, as well as your business. I witnessed the tech bubble burst in the bay area, and it wasn't pretty. Fighting with someone for a $10 an hour job at Kinkos, who would have been your boss a year before, was no fun. If you lived there during that time, you knew who had been laid off by the pink drink. Anyone who was drinking a pink drink, meant they had been laid off, and when you walked into the Red Room, and everyone had a pink drink but Willie Brown, then you knew it was bad. I agree, either make your talents stand out, or have a niche that is needed. I am actually working on that, and it is one of the reasons why I am posting less. The issue is, the expansion of my talents, have been rejected, or thought of as just academic nuttery. Shiller has been working on the tracking of, and hedging of, real estate since well before the last bust. I believe these bubbles can be prevented, and one day, I hope I can help understand and prevent this from happening again. It all goes back to <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/prospect-k-and-t.pdf">Kahneman and Tversky's paper on prospect theory</a>. I learned a lot about myself from that paper, and I want to take it to the next level. This is one of the reasons why I am not posting as much.
I also agree, adding more to the forums would help. However, I have added a <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1506/">thread on jobs</a>, a great <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1375/">article on Dr. Karl Case</a> (who has worked closely with Shiller), a great and abundant <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1264/">read on monetary policy</a>, an <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1228/">anti-behavioral econ book</a>, the <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1081/">Fed's credit crisis</a>, oh... and <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1063/">the jobs again</a>. But, I have received few comments, if any, and not a single one from the bulls. Maybe, people feel it is over their head, or they just ignore it, but I do not care. I would rather have a discussion about it, whether I learn from it, help someone understand it, or just have a decent convo about it. But, I am lucky to get great comments from the regulars, but not the newbies.
I will also disagree with you... the recession has already begun here in OC. There is a lag, between when it happens, and when it officially gets declared. However, if you look at the job numbers like I do, then OC has been in a recession starting in Q3. But, I will agree with you, it has much to do with Greenspan
Thank you for your kind words, not only to me, but to the rest of the contributors to the blog/forums. I am just a very small portion of the greatness of this blog/forums, and I am thankful, that zovall and IR asked me to be a part of it. I wish I had the time to contribute to the blog more, but I don't, and I really do not know how IR does it. It really is amazing, knowing about his life, that he has the time to do the well thought out posts that he does. If you are as anal retentive as me, then taking the time to do a blog post takes some time. I have been saying for 6 months, or more, about doing a post on the foreclosures.
I understand the cyclical part of the business, as well as your business. I witnessed the tech bubble burst in the bay area, and it wasn't pretty. Fighting with someone for a $10 an hour job at Kinkos, who would have been your boss a year before, was no fun. If you lived there during that time, you knew who had been laid off by the pink drink. Anyone who was drinking a pink drink, meant they had been laid off, and when you walked into the Red Room, and everyone had a pink drink but Willie Brown, then you knew it was bad. I agree, either make your talents stand out, or have a niche that is needed. I am actually working on that, and it is one of the reasons why I am posting less. The issue is, the expansion of my talents, have been rejected, or thought of as just academic nuttery. Shiller has been working on the tracking of, and hedging of, real estate since well before the last bust. I believe these bubbles can be prevented, and one day, I hope I can help understand and prevent this from happening again. It all goes back to <a href="http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/prospect-k-and-t.pdf">Kahneman and Tversky's paper on prospect theory</a>. I learned a lot about myself from that paper, and I want to take it to the next level. This is one of the reasons why I am not posting as much.
I also agree, adding more to the forums would help. However, I have added a <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1506/">thread on jobs</a>, a great <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1375/">article on Dr. Karl Case</a> (who has worked closely with Shiller), a great and abundant <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1264/">read on monetary policy</a>, an <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1228/">anti-behavioral econ book</a>, the <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1081/">Fed's credit crisis</a>, oh... and <a href="http://forums.irvinehousingblog.com/discussion/1063/">the jobs again</a>. But, I have received few comments, if any, and not a single one from the bulls. Maybe, people feel it is over their head, or they just ignore it, but I do not care. I would rather have a discussion about it, whether I learn from it, help someone understand it, or just have a decent convo about it. But, I am lucky to get great comments from the regulars, but not the newbies.
I will also disagree with you... the recession has already begun here in OC. There is a lag, between when it happens, and when it officially gets declared. However, if you look at the job numbers like I do, then OC has been in a recession starting in Q3. But, I will agree with you, it has much to do with Greenspan
IrvineRenter_IHB
New member
graphrix,
Your post got me thinking. Perhaps we could use a category for "Library" where we could post links to research papers and more heady stuff. I know I have gone to the search button 3 or 4 times to find the Bernanke paper to link to it. I have assembled quite a bit of research for my project which I could add.
Your post got me thinking. Perhaps we could use a category for "Library" where we could post links to research papers and more heady stuff. I know I have gone to the search button 3 or 4 times to find the Bernanke paper to link to it. I have assembled quite a bit of research for my project which I could add.
graphrix_IHB
New member
IR,
I love your idea! I have a bunch of stuff that I could add too. We should see what we have, so we don't post duplicates. I have a bunch of ideas going through my head now, but it is getting close to the commercial bowl. So, we will have to discuss this more another time, but I really want to do this.
I love your idea! I have a bunch of stuff that I could add too. We should see what we have, so we don't post duplicates. I have a bunch of ideas going through my head now, but it is getting close to the commercial bowl. So, we will have to discuss this more another time, but I really want to do this.
graphix.
I shouldn't worry about the complains of 'hostile' rents, I don;t really care if they are hostile as long as they are backed up by facts, which in every case, you are, your rants come from frustration towards ppl who, despite all the factual information here which touches financial and emotional themes, seek to rationalize thier home purchase which is heavily weighted on the emotional side, there can is no civil argument on that issue, only cheery picking numbers and 'experts' who wish that the bottom is near. The prevailing argument that this blog and msm is causing buyers to stay back is valid to an extent, but the real life on the streets still prevails, homes are unaffordable, recesssion is here given the inflation formula they use (bad numbers for goods and rent=home), I understand that buying in socal comes with the 'weather' tax, but anything over 50% of nationwide median is ridiculous, especially when wages do not reflect that... keep up the good work...
I shouldn't worry about the complains of 'hostile' rents, I don;t really care if they are hostile as long as they are backed up by facts, which in every case, you are, your rants come from frustration towards ppl who, despite all the factual information here which touches financial and emotional themes, seek to rationalize thier home purchase which is heavily weighted on the emotional side, there can is no civil argument on that issue, only cheery picking numbers and 'experts' who wish that the bottom is near. The prevailing argument that this blog and msm is causing buyers to stay back is valid to an extent, but the real life on the streets still prevails, homes are unaffordable, recesssion is here given the inflation formula they use (bad numbers for goods and rent=home), I understand that buying in socal comes with the 'weather' tax, but anything over 50% of nationwide median is ridiculous, especially when wages do not reflect that... keep up the good work...
acpme_IHB
New member
graph, i don't think any of your posts have ever been over-the-top, hostile, bitter, or in any way inappropriate. swkin is right on that any debate on the subject of housing affects us all financially and emotionally, but it really extends to almost any subject -- whether it's economists making forecasts about the economy, politicians debating the iraq surge, or a married couple discussing the behavior of their children. taking a positive stance on any matter is associated with optimism, hopefulness, and all the good things with whipped cream and a cherry on top. a negative stance is, well... negative. and we associate those opinions with bitterness, hostility, or condescension. maybe its just human beings are innately drawn more toward the positive, which i hardly think is a bad thing. but ultimately, it's passion for one's opinion we've seen and i've never thought anything "negative" about your comments.