Midterm Elections

[morekaos]

From Blue Wave to hedging your bets....

Final Election Update: Democrats Aren?t Certain To Take The House, But They?re Pretty Clear Favorites
The range of outcomes is wide and includes the GOP holding on.

This is a difficult article to write. Not for any deeply personal reason, but just because I?m not quite sure what I?m supposed to lead with ? the most likely outcome or the uncertainty around that outcome.

Either way, there?s the potential for misunderstanding. People can mentally ?round up? high probabilities to certainties. An 86 percent chance might seem like a sure thing, but it isn?t ? would you board a plane that had a 14 percent chance of crashing?

But an 86 percent chance (or around 6 in 7) ? which is the chance that Democrats have of winning the House, give or take a bit in the various versions of the FiveThirtyEight forecast model ? is nonetheless a pretty good chance. (Republican odds of keeping the Senate are also just north of 80 percent in a nice bit of symmetry.) To say that the range of plausible outcomes is broad and includes Republicans keeping the House does not mean that all such outcomes are equally likely ? a point on which some people may be confused too.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/

 

[Perspective]

You know if somebody brought that device into Northwood High, you all would be pissed as hell if the school administrators didn't act to have the kid arrested.  The hypocrisy here is off the charts.

It also shows that Perspective, eyephone and others are content to wallow in ignorance rather than face the truth when it doesn't conform to what they've been told is the truth by the MSM.  In the old days of housing blogs they referred to people like that as sheeple.

Yes, once again, thank you for the personal insult. It's very becoming - always the work of someone confident in their argument.

 

[Liar Loan]

Insults are sometimes needed to jar people awake and get their attention.  Arguments are more memorable when there is an emotion attached.

You know this because your prior post was also meant to insult.

 

[eyephone]

huh, this Kanye-West is a nut case. Didn't he wear MAGA red hat. He about to have another nervous breakdown.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/kanye-west-pivots-donating-hefty-181500960.html

Article author doesn't get Kanye.  That doesn't look like a pivot.  Kanye doesn't align with a candidate due to their political party.  He aligns with who he thinks will help "disadvantaged black people" the most.

Is Kanye West Stepping Away From Politics Because His adidas Sneakers Aren?t Selling?

According to e-commerce expert and the Senior Industry Advisor of the Sports division at NPD, Matt Powell, Kanye West?s latest sneaker release, the adidas YEEZY 700 ?Mauve? has yet to sell out at commercial retailers. Which could possibly be extremely bad for business for adidas moving forward.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/heavy.com/entertainment/2018/10/kanye-west-ditches-politics-adidas/amp/

 

[Perspective]

Insults are sometimes needed to jar people awake and get their attention.  Arguments are more memorable when there is an emotion attached.

You know this because your prior post was also meant to insult.

This is when I nod my head condescendingly, with little desire to explain the false equivalency, and remove myself from this particular conversation.

 

[Liar Loan]

Insults are sometimes needed to jar people awake and get their attention.  Arguments are more memorable when there is an emotion attached.

You know this because your prior post was also meant to insult.

This is when I nod my head condescendingly, with little desire to explain the false equivalency, and remove myself from this particular conversation.

 

[eyephone]

If you haven?t vote. Consider voting. It closes at 8pm.
Also, you can bring your kids to the polls.

This midterm will be considered historical and consider being part of it.

 

[morekaos]

I walked with my wife down to our poll, and in an hour we will go to the regional collection center and will volunteer there till around 11:00.

 

[morekaos]

Last two poles (if you believe polls) has Blackburn over Bredesen by 8% and 9%. Now I?m no mathematician, (actually I am) but that doesn?t look like much of a tie in Tennessee.

Poll: Blackburn edges ahead of Bredesen in tight Tennessee Senate contest
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna926316

Ha ha, told ya, Taylor Swift goes down in flames!

 

[eyephone]

Last two poles (if you believe polls) has Blackburn over Bredesen by 8% and 9%. Now I?m no mathematician, (actually I am) but that doesn?t look like much of a tie in Tennessee.

Poll: Blackburn edges ahead of Bredesen in tight Tennessee Senate contest
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna926316

Ha ha, told ya, Taylor Swift goes down in flames!

You can say that about Kanye also.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Dang. Katie Porter volunteer came by my house just now.

Last minute campaigning.

 

[eyephone]

Dang. Katie Porter volunteer came by my house just now.

Last minute campaigning.

Dedication by volunteer!!
Thanks for sharing info iho

 

[eyephone]

I walked with my wife down to our poll, and in an hour we will go to the regional collection center and will volunteer there till around 11:00.

That?s good to hear. It?s nice of you to participate in the voting process.

 

[sgip]

I know who the real loser is in this election cycle...

It's not the House Republicans....

It's not President Trump....

It's Notorious RBG. With a solid R Senate, RBG has to hold on for a few more years knowing any replacement for her seat will be a polar opposite of her political viewpoint.

Secondarily, I'd add the Beto to this list. How do you run against the most unpopular Senator in recorded history versus your $38m war chest, plus a massive get out the vote machine... and STILL lose? It's as if this was an election between an oft mocked, cartoonish reality TV celebrity versus a seasoned "can't lose" candidate has been played out once again in real time.

My .02c

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Did you guys even discuss the propositions? I was torn on a few of them.

I usually don?t vote for anything that involves more taxes but some of those looked like a good reason.

 

[eyephone]

Did you guys even discuss the propositions? I was torn on a few of them.

I usually don?t vote for anything that involves more taxes but some of those looked like a good reason.

Please share your thoughts. I think people talked about prop 6 and 10.

 

[fortune11]

No real surprises tonight to what was a very baked in outcome for months

Dems flipping house based on college educated suburbs and Rs increasing senate lead from red state slate up for senate election

Florida ex- felons getting right to vote is huge given how big that cohort is that even small %s there can matter in terms of 2020

The only loser is the ?United? part of United States - the polarization is even worse and the minority rule situation is even worse. A trump under dem subpoena power will lash out even more and inject even more toxicity in our lives.

Dems are projected to win popular vote by 9 percent tonight - this is what it took to flip the heavily gerrymandered house map and every effort to make voting difficult.

 

[sgip]

Normally I vote down bond issues as they tend to mushroom out of control.... like our imaginary bullet train.... but these bonds seemed reasonable and I voted Yes.

Prop 5 - let Granny have her property tax base - I voted No. It's not in the best interests of anyone to transfer tax levels from one home to another IMHO. This had the potential to starve other communities of a reasonable tax flow if demographics were to shift. It was a gift to the boomer generation and one that I could not support.

Prop 6 was a Yes. We have the funds, but they aren't spent as intended. The gas tax was not a solution when one already existed - use what you have as it was collected for.

Prop 8 was a play between Unions and private for profit dialysis operations. While the "for profit" piece was a problem, the Union piece was worse. I voted No on 8.

Prop 10 - no brainer. Imagine the DMV telling you what you can or cannot charge for rent. Please.

Prop 12 was a weird one. It seemed to say that space for animals would shrink through 2020, then open wide up thereafter. I voted Yes based on who I could tell was behind it.

Next please..... What were your thoughts on the Props?

 

[fortune11]

Texas is always that fantasy that never turns for dems . If you are only blaming Beto , you don?t know Texas as well .

Fact is , Hispanics voted 40% for Cruz. That sealed it for him.

You wonder how much anti-POC rhetoric they will tolerate. And you wonder how much longer GOP can see them as an internal menace.

I know there are probably deep issues here. And an established Hispanic middle class. And real values. But don't underestimate the power of wanting to fit in. in Texas, the line between local Latino & Caucasian culture is the smallest of any State. Many of the Hispanics in Texas have family trees that stretch back to before it was even part of the US. The food, music and traditional dress all speak to that mixture.

 

[Ready2Downsize]

Normally I vote down bond issues as they tend to mushroom out of control.... like our imaginary bullet train.... but these bonds seemed reasonable and I voted Yes.

Prop 5 - let Granny have her property tax base - I voted No. It's not in the best interests of anyone to transfer tax levels from one home to another IMHO. This had the potential to starve other communities of a reasonable tax flow if demographics were to shift. It was a gift to the boomer generation and one that I could not support.

Prop 6 was a Yes. We have the funds, but they aren't spent as intended. The gas tax was not a solution when one already existed - use what you have as it was collected for.

Prop 8 was a play between Unions and private for profit dialysis operations. While the "for profit" piece was a problem, the Union piece was worse. I voted No on 8.

Prop 10 - no brainer. Imagine the DMV telling you what you can or cannot charge for rent. Please.

Prop 12 was a weird one. It seemed to say that space for animals would shrink through 2020, then open wide up thereafter. I voted Yes based on who I could tell was behind it.

Next please..... What were your thoughts on the Props?

Prop 5 will go down, but before you think it's a bad thing.....


The home that is being sold is going to be reassessed, most  likely for much higher. It COULD sit with granny and be handed down (no inheritance tax paid) to grandkids who will keep that low basis until the day THEY sell it. If Granny had moved, the new home's basis cannot be handed down.


We sold our old home. Our prop taxes actually doubled due to mello but if someone else had bought our current house they would be paying $5K more per year than we do, so it's of some benefit to us. HOWEVER, the state collects $14K more than we would have paid on our old home. The state (and county, schools etc) now get $9K per year MORE than they would have since we moved AND we can no longer let the kids inherit our stepped up basis house...??. they actually get more than double what we were paying by us moving and that is with our reduced taxes compared to if we had bought the place without transferring our basis.

If we stayed in our old home, state gets $9K per year less than moving and lets us keep our ability to pass the old place down to grand kids (tax free and stepped up basis with NO increase in property taxes).


If granny moves, it most assuredly will lead to higher property taxes on her home and when people move they buy new furniture, flooring, etc. and it takes away the ability to keep a ridiculously low tax basis in place for potentially another half century or more which is exactly how all those people in Newport Coast got their ridiculously low property taxes.