<p>Blackacre,</p>
<p>Not to pick on you but I am going to
</p>
<p>1) The main finding in the study is that the rate of autism increased even after thimerosal was discontinued from use in vaccine. If there was a direct link between thimerosal and autism, the levels of autism should not have increased. The study does not depend upon the lack of reporting rather that there was an increase level of autism reported after the alleged cause was removed. Thus, thimerasol cannot be a major cause of the autism.</p>
<p>2) Anecdotal evidence (i.e. stories told by one person to another) is great for wild claims but definitely not scientific. People who are "harmed" are almost always more vocal then those who are not harmed. Thus, one would almost always only hear about the bad, not the good. For example, cancer clusters caused by EMF. No scientific evidence whatsoever but there was a huge outcry from cancer sufferers who were convinced that they lived in a cancer cluster caused by power lines. However, this was not scientific valid because only the people who suffered cancer and lived near power lines spoke up. People who lived near power lines and do not have cancer say nothing. In fact, randomness dictates that there would be "clusters" but that does not really mean anything. </p>
<p><a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9907E7D8163AF935A15755C0A9659C8B63&sec=health">query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html</a></p>
<p>3) The problem with conspiracy theorists is that they manipulate the means to get to the ends. They have a specific goal/conclusion in mind and then take suspect/non-existent facts to back up their statements. That is the opposite of science where the means dictate the ends. You make a hypothesis but then do a real test to check the validity of that "educated guess". You do not let your hypothesis dictate your test. You can learn just as much if your theory was disapproved than if it was validate. </p>
<p>4) "besides, is there any other plausible explantion of autism? genetic theory doesn't appeal to me, b/c the rate of autism has consistently risen." </p>
<p> First, just because we have not found the cause to autism does not mean we should cling to one that is untrue. Just because most people in the 15th century believed that the Sun orbits around the Earth does not mean it is true. Second, there has been studies done showing a genetic link between autism and genes. However, that does not eliminate an environmental factor (i.e. allergies are genetically based but are only triggered by an exposure to particular allergens). Third, movingaround is right. THere has been an increase in reporting because people are more alert (maybe oversensitive) to it thus leading to more diagnosis. Look at depression rates, are people more depressed now than 50 years ago? Probably not .. . but we certainly use more prozac.</p>
<p>5) Perception is usually not reality...especially in science. People believe a number of things that are not true. For example:</p>
<p> a) Cold temperature/being wet do not increase your chance of getting a cold/flu. Hypotherthemia yes, cold and flu no.</p>
<p> <a href="http://www.harvardhealthcontent.com/health-news-reviews/vitamin-c-and-colds.php">www.harvardhealthcontent.com/health-news-reviews/vitamin-c-and-colds.php</a></p>
<p> b) There is no such thing as a "sugar high": </p>
<p> <a href="http://amos.indiana.edu/library/scripts/sugarhigh.html">amos.indiana.edu/library/scripts/sugarhigh.html</a>; <a href="http://www.dukenews.duke.edu/2002/02/mm_debunkingthe.html">www.dukenews.duke.edu/2002/02/mm_debunkingthe.html</a></p>
<p> Now, are you going to believe either one of those? It is up to you. . .most people still do not.</p>