[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1253937066][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1253856592]<strong>Market Update</strong>
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No sign of a slowdown yet...</blockquote>
RoLar, why do you use this Active vs. Pending listings? <strong>You do realize that all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category, correct?</strong> Besides the fact that these short sales will hang out in the "pending" status for months and months, <strong>the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on</strong>. So if you want to make the data more accurate, I would exclude short sale listings from the "pending" category. Just a thought. Then you also have to consider that you will get about 10% of non-short sale listings going from "pending" back to "active" status due to various reasons. I rarely like using "back-up" and/or "pending" listings to derive an opinion on the health of the real estate market.</blockquote>
Excluding the short sales from the pending (in escrow) category would most definitely not make the data more accurate. In an area where 40-50% properties are listed as short sales, you would be ignoring a large number of sales. If you take short sales out of the pending category, the only way to make the data still somewhat meaningfull would be to also take short sales out of the actives. I listed the closed sales numbers previously as requested but didn't get any sort of response.
Again I'll use Aliso Viejo as an example and take short sales out of both sides.
Total number of active non-short sale listings: 50
Total number of non-short sale properties in escrow: 75
So that method gives 150%... Still impressive.
"all short sales that have submitted offers go into the "pending" category" - Completely untrue. Call ten short sales listed in an active city, and ask if they have any offers submitted. I bet at least 6 of the 10 reply that they do. A frequent practice is for the listing agent to place the listing on "Hold Do Not Show" after the property has received offers and submitted them to the bank. Maybe you meant accepted offers. Yes, short sales do take a long time to close escrow, but they also take a long time to go into escrow.
"the majority of them never close and get foreclosed on" - Now I'm not sure how to find the most accurate support for this argument but I'll do my best. If a short sale does not sell and is foreclosed on, then the listing agent must place it in one of the following categories: Expired, Cancelled, or Withdrawn. In August, 2009 there were 19 closed escrows. During that same time, there were only 8 properties that fell into one of those three categories. Still a high percentage, but not the majority.
In escrow statistics are the newest source of data in real estate. Closed sales numbers are also relevant, and I'll start including at the end of each month, but they represent a 30-60 day delay.
