Market Update

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
[quote author="graphrix" date=1252064887][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1252061743][quote author="graphrix" date=1251991055][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1251990259]Instead of hunkering down and worrying about stabilizing employment, we are pushing people into buying homes. With over 3 million homes 60 days behind on their mortgage this ass clown site really is doing a disservice to stupid people. For this site to state the shadow inventory is nothing is claiming over 18 million homes in the US does not count. This website is for the fools and the fools that sell these idiots the dream until prices continue to fall. Look until we see positive job gain sites like this are useless and are just making the brokers money and you are catching the fish hook. Prices are still off by close to 46 percent on properties less than $500k and after 18 months of properties over 500k starting to implode you are just about to see a real blow up in the upper end market. I did read the website and i threw up in mouth on the puffing and shitty spin these a-holes are doing to take advantage of people...</blockquote>


^^^ And the ass clown above is a veteran in the RE business. ROFL! I love OCCOBRA! We really need to grab a beer some time. I ain't driving to RSM though.</blockquote>


Where is my beer!!!</blockquote>


IR2 stole it. He is the West Irvine beer thief. Seriously though... we should grab a beer sometime. I mean, you've been selling new homes since Robert was being potty trained. That, and I bet we know some of the same people.</blockquote>


Don't be afraid of the new generation. Embrace us, we are your retirement.
 
[quote author="usctrojanman29" date=1252063828][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1252061743][quote author="graphrix" date=1251991055][quote author="OCCOBRA" date=1251990259]Instead of hunkering down and worrying about stabilizing employment, we are pushing people into buying homes. With over 3 million homes 60 days behind on their mortgage this ass clown site really is doing a disservice to stupid people. For this site to state the shadow inventory is nothing is claiming over 18 million homes in the US does not count. This website is for the fools and the fools that sell these idiots the dream until prices continue to fall. Look until we see positive job gain sites like this are useless and are just making the brokers money and you are catching the fish hook. Prices are still off by close to 46 percent on properties less than $500k and after 18 months of properties over 500k starting to implode you are just about to see a real blow up in the upper end market. I did read the website and i threw up in mouth on the puffing and shitty spin these a-holes are doing to take advantage of people...</blockquote>


^^^ And the ass clown above is a veteran in the RE business. ROFL! I love OCCOBRA! We really need to grab a beer some time. I ain't driving to RSM though.</blockquote>


Where is my beer!!!</blockquote>
I'll drive over to RSM since that's where my friend is having me look for a place...maybe I can pick the OC Cobra's brain about RSM over a New Castle. ;)</blockquote>


Sure Dailys is the local watering spot it would be good to have a beer and swap war stories.
 
<a href="http://occoastalnews.com/?p=710"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-711" title="Combo" src="http://occoastalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/Combo.jpg" alt="Combo" width="800" height="449" /></a>



I included the closed escrow numbers for the months of August and July, and compared them to 2008 and 2007. I'll continue to post the sales number at the end of each month.
 
Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.
 
[quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


Half the articles I see say that the tax credit was a waste of money to taxpayers because it is estimates to have only motivated the purchase of 350,000 homes natiowide, and then the other half of the articles I've read say that the recent demand is primarily due to the credit and sales will drop like a rock once it expires.
 
[quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


I wouldn't be surprised if this gets extended another year after more foreclosures go through the pipeline this fall. Of course, they would want to wait until the last minute to announce this so that some people decide to buy because they believe it is expiring in December.
 
[quote author="25inIrvine" date=1252633592][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


I wouldn't be surprised if this gets extended another year after more foreclosures go through the pipeline this fall. Of course, they would want to wait until the last minute to announce this so that some people decide to buy because they believe it is expiring in December.</blockquote>


Yah, I think it will probably get extended.
 
I know the mainstream media is all propaganda for our cheerleaders here.

But this caught my ear this morning as I left for work.



This lady has done very well for herself and her firm.

Meredith Whitney on Housing Prices.



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/">http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/</a>
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252634109]I know the mainstream media is all propaganda for our cheerleaders here.

But this caught my ear this morning as I left for work.



<strong>This lady has done very well for herself and her firm</strong>.

Meredith Whitney on Housing Prices.



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/">http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/</a></blockquote>


I remember hearing that september was suppose to be the month that stocks retest their lows... She says that stocks have anothe leg down but she has a buy on GS still?



Do you have a link showing her 1,2, or 3 year performance for herself or the firm?



Back in May:http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/05/bill-miller-and-meredith-whitney-the-bull-and-the-bear.html



But good commentary:" Check out this link, she is good."



* Would also like to add: (from WSJ article written about Meredith's predictions: Too Gloomy)

http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/09/10/too-gloomy-whitney-predicts-25-home-price-plunge/



"Moody?s expects a drop of about 10% from current levels, and the declines will continue late into next year, says analyst Joseph Snider.



While S&P/Case-Shiller shies away from predictions, David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee, thinks Ms. Whitney?s is estimate is too negative. While prices may fall further, ?a 25% decline from here sounds very steep, he said. ?To say that we?re only half way through this sounds pessimistic.? "
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252633333][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


Half the articles I see say that the tax credit was a waste of money to taxpayers because it is estimates to have only motivated the purchase of 350,000 homes natiowide, and then the other half of the articles I've read say that the recent demand is primarily due to the credit and sales will drop like a rock once it expires.</blockquote>
The primary driver of home sales during the bubble was easy credit. Did it help any real number of people become homeowners in the long run?
 
Whitney is not a money manager, she's an analyst. Aside from Calculated Risk and Irvine Renter, she's the only person I know who was publicly vocal about the oncoming crisis back in 2006. So, her 3 year performance has been stellar.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252635212][quote author="bltserv" date=1252634109]I know the mainstream media is all propaganda for our cheerleaders here.

But this caught my ear this morning as I left for work.



<strong>This lady has done very well for herself and her firm</strong>.

Meredith Whitney on Housing Prices.



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/">http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/</a></blockquote>
Do you have a link showing her 1,2, or 3 year performance for herself or the firm?

</blockquote>


In 2007, Whitney was listed as the second best stock picker in the capital markets industry on Forbes.com's list of "The Best Analysts: Stock Pickers", as well as being named "one of NY Post's 50 Most Powerful Women in NYC.



Whitney's extremely bearish view on banks landed her on the cover of the August 18, 2008 issue of Fortune Magazine. Even before the problems in September that befell Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, she is quoted as saying, "It feels like I'm at the epicenter of the biggest financial crisis in history." In October 2008 Whitney, was ranked as one of Fortune 500?s ?50 Most Powerful Women in Business.? In 2008 she won CNBC's "Power Player of the Year" over Jamie Dimon, Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson.



I know Robby.

She is just a woman.

What could a good looking woman know about real business. That just cant be true can it.



This woman is good looking and VERY SMART. Beware. Prices will come down.



<img src="http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/171-0310090755-071105people_whitney.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252633833][quote author="25inIrvine" date=1252633592][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


I wouldn't be surprised if this gets extended another year after more foreclosures go through the pipeline this fall. Of course, they would want to wait until the last minute to announce this so that some people decide to buy because they believe it is expiring in December.</blockquote>


Yah, I think it will probably get extended.</blockquote>


Unfortunately, you're probably right.
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252638775][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252635212][quote author="bltserv" date=1252634109]I know the mainstream media is all propaganda for our cheerleaders here.

But this caught my ear this morning as I left for work.



<strong>This lady has done very well for herself and her firm</strong>.

Meredith Whitney on Housing Prices.



<a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/">http://www.cnbc.com/id/32773345/</a></blockquote>
Do you have a link showing her 1,2, or 3 year performance for herself or the firm?

</blockquote>


In 2007, Whitney was listed as the second best stock picker in the capital markets industry on Forbes.com's list of "The Best Analysts: Stock Pickers", as well as being named "one of NY Post's 50 Most Powerful Women in NYC.



Whitney's extremely bearish view on banks landed her on the cover of the August 18, 2008 issue of Fortune Magazine. Even before the problems in September that befell Merrill Lynch and Lehman Brothers, she is quoted as saying, "It feels like I'm at the epicenter of the biggest financial crisis in history." In October 2008 Whitney, was ranked as one of Fortune 500?s ?50 Most Powerful Women in Business.? In 2008 she won CNBC's "Power Player of the Year" over Jamie Dimon, Ben Bernanke, and Hank Paulson.



I know Robby.

She is just a woman.



What could a good looking woman know about real business. That just cant be true can it.



This woman is good looking and VERY SMART. Beware. Prices will come down.



<img src="http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/171-0310090755-071105people_whitney.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>




Yah, but she married this guy...



<a href="http://en.wiki.org/wiki/John_Layfield">John_Layfield</a>



Could go to judgement
 
[quote author="bltserv" date=1252638775]



She is just a woman.

What could a good looking woman know about real business. That just cant be true can it.



<img src="http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/171-0310090755-071105people_whitney.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>


Don't try to pass off your beliefs as my words.



As the WSJ reported back in May 2009, her fame has come from ONE accurate prediction. How well did she do during the 2003-2007 period? We will never know, because no one knew who she was. Actually around that same time in May, she predicted that the stock market and banks were going to revert back to their lows, starting at the end of the second quarter of 2009.
 
Well, the <a href="http://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/economic_outlook/bio.html">FDIC</a> thought that she was worth listening to in 2006. How about you just acknowledge that she knows what she is talking about and disagree with her, rather than try and discredit her, ok Junior?
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1252654947]Well, the <a href="http://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/economic_outlook/bio.html">FDIC</a> thought that she was worth listening to in 2006. How about you just acknowledge that she knows what she is talking about and disagree with her, rather than try and discredit her, ok Junior?</blockquote>


Okay, sesame street clown. Next time I see someone put down an analyst, I'll remember your wise advice. You keep acting like being young is a bad thing, seems to me you're wishing you were about 9 years old.



She called the citigroup financial problem, but has completely missed the target since then. Do you deny this?



The original comment applied that I should ignore the current facts about supply and demand, and just listen to her because she is good. I was just updating on the current market conditions, there's no room for interpretation. Those are the number, and I provided no commentary. I even added the closed sales that were requested last time. It's funny to see people getting frustrated and arguing with even just posting numbers.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252658330][quote author="Nude" date=1252654947]Well, the <a href="http://www.fdic.gov/news/conferences/economic_outlook/bio.html">FDIC</a> thought that she was worth listening to in 2006. How about you just acknowledge that she knows what she is talking about and disagree with her, rather than try and discredit her, ok Junior?</blockquote>


Okay, sesame street clown. Next time I see someone put down an analyst, I'll remember your wise advice. You keep acting like being young is a bad thing, seems to me you're wishing you were about 9 years old.



She called the citigroup financial problem, but has completely missed the target since then. Do you deny this?



The original comment applied that I should ignore the current facts about supply and demand, and just listen to her because she is good. I was just updating on the current market conditions, there's no room for interpretation. Those are the number, and I provided no commentary. I even added the closed sales that were requested last time. It's funny to see people getting frustrated and arguing with even just posting numbers.</blockquote>


Sorry, I meant Skipper Dan Jr. You two are like peas in a pod, your arguments commingle so well, and even your styles are similar. Like father and son, or teacher and student, or maybe just business partners. At any rate, it wasn't the insult you imagined it to be.



I don't think she's completely missed the target, I think she's consistently been correct on the fundamentals even though the timing has been delayed. No real surprise, considering the banks got a free pass when FASB reversed the mark-to-market rules for the time being.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252633833][quote author="25inIrvine" date=1252633592][quote author="CM_Dude" date=1252632773]Has there been any sort of quantification (even speculative) of the impact the $8,000 first time homebuyer credit is having on sales trends? It stands to reason that sales will drop precipitously once that expires.</blockquote>


I wouldn't be surprised if this gets extended another year after more foreclosures go through the pipeline this fall. Of course, they would want to wait until the last minute to announce this so that some people decide to buy because they believe it is expiring in December.</blockquote>


Yah, I think it will probably get extended.</blockquote>


I don't see how they can avoid extending it. The market is being propped up to the degree it is by programs like this one.



Imagine this scenario -- early in 2010, the economy picks up and money flows out of 10 year Treasuries into competing investment opportunities. This drives up interest rates just as the tax credits are expiring. Demand would collapse as fewer people would be motivated to buy, and the amounts financed would drop. It is the final shoe to drop.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1252658330]Okay, sesame street clown. </blockquote>


I don't appreciate the personal attacks on other members one bit. Please stop. Please?
 
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