Market Top

[zubs]

So what should someone looking for a home do?

You should go out on the weekend and visit open houses.  Since you are not really a serious buyer, you should not waste a buyer agents time.
Doing this will let you see what's out there.  If you like a place, you can make a low ball offer which won't be accepted.

At some point, you will find a place you like, and your offer will be accepted.  It took me about 4 years.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

So what should someone looking for a home do?

You should go out on the weekend and visit open houses.  Since you are not really a serious buyer, you should not waste a buyer agents time.
Doing this will let you see what's out there.  If you like a place, you can make a low ball offer which won't be accepted.

At some point, you will find a place you like, and your offer will be accepted.  It took me about 4 years.

You got the right methods. Shops when all other are not.


Bargains not going to pop up in a go-go market. Worse case is you will labeled as looky loose.

 

[usctrojancpa]

Don't you think that these wealthy, influential, and top dogs individuals / institutions has something in their back pocket to pump things where they want it to go? The market prop up because "they " wanted it to go up. We small fishes has to read between the line and align small monies to benefit from it.

I am just a drop in the vast ocean of wealth.

I actually agree with you on this.

Me three.

This is why I was encouraging people to buy like crazy starting in mid-2009, because it aligned with Fed policy.  They made it very clear they would do whatever it takes to put a floor in the market.  Lots of permabears on other blogs called me every name in the book at the time, but I put my money where my mouth was and purchased in 2010. 

Starting in 2018, the Fed began shrinking their balance sheet (selling MBS) and raising rates, so it made sense to be cautious, sell your RE investments, and hold off on buying because the risk of losses was much higher.  I wasn't very active on TI in 2018, so I won't take credit for telling you people to hold off last year, but I've been fighting the good fight this year, and some of the resident Irvine permabulls aren't too thrilled to see their RE losses highlighted.

When I started highlighting the YoY losses, it was heatedly disputed, but now there seems to be begrudging acceptance.  What a difference a few months makes!  Don't worry... We are in the 2nd inning of this ball game.  There are more losses to come!!

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

 

[irvinebullhousing]

The waiting and time the market is a flawed strategies. Even the best and smartest with most sophisticated computing algorithms acknowledge that timing the perfect time is impossible. Ray Dalio. So I am glad that LL is not a money manager. I think his intention is well for the average person and that LL is not purposeful misleading.

 

[eyephone]

That?s your philosophy. But someone people like to buy low and sell high.

 

[Liar Loan]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough to change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

 

[Mety]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

 

[Liar Loan]

The waiting and time the market is a flawed strategies. Even the best and smartest with most sophisticated computing algorithms acknowledge that timing the perfect time is impossible. Ray Dalio. So I am glad that LL is not a money manager. I think his intention is well for the average person and that LL is not purposeful misleading.

This is a strawman that is typical of those that don't believe in market timing.  The thing is you don't have to time the market perfectly, to benefit immensely from market timing.

 

[Liar Loan]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

Five years ago I wasn't discouraging anybody from buying in Irvine.  You wouldn't have gotten a 119% gain in most cases, but you would have come out well ahead.

Now I'm telling people don't buy in Irvine or the IE in 2019.  The IE will actually crash harder than Irvine due to working class owners that relied heavily on FHA loans (the new subprime) to get in.  Hence, one of the reasons I'm selling while the getting is still good.

 

[Happiness]

IE is fine for investing but I wouldn't live there. Trying to time the market is fine for investing, but it doesn't make sense for your residence because real estate cycles are immortal and you are not. Note that this post is not hate speech, some of my best friends live in the IE.

 

[Kings]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

Five years ago I wasn't discouraging anybody from buying in Irvine.  You wouldn't have gotten a 119% gain in most cases, but you would have come out well ahead.

Now I'm telling people don't buy in Irvine or the IE in 2019.  The IE will actually crash harder than Irvine due to working class owners that relied heavily on FHA loans (the new subprime) to get in.  Hence, one of the reasons I'm selling while the getting is still good.

bought 4 years ago, sold recently for 87% roe

 

[Mety]

IE is fine for investing but I wouldn't live there. Trying to time the market is fine for investing, but it doesn't make sense for your residence because real estate cycles are immortal and you are not. Note that this post is not hate speech, some of my best friends live in the IE.

Man, I feel such hatred. JK  ;D

 

[Mety]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

Five years ago I wasn't discouraging anybody from buying in Irvine.  You wouldn't have gotten a 119% gain in most cases, but you would have come out well ahead.

Now I'm telling people don't buy in Irvine or the IE in 2019.  The IE will actually crash harder than Irvine due to working class owners that relied heavily on FHA loans (the new subprime) to get in.  Hence, one of the reasons I'm selling while the getting is still good.

bought 4 years ago, sold recently for 87% roe

But for LL, he would take 119% over 87%.

In all seriousness, 87%? You must be loaded now.

 

[Mety]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

Five years ago I wasn't discouraging anybody from buying in Irvine.  You wouldn't have gotten a 119% gain in most cases, but you would have come out well ahead.

Now I'm telling people don't buy in Irvine or the IE in 2019.  The IE will actually crash harder than Irvine due to working class owners that relied heavily on FHA loans (the new subprime) to get in.  Hence, one of the reasons I'm selling while the getting is still good.

OK. So your point is 2019 is not a good time to buy. Got it.

 

[Liar Loan]

So the Fed is easing again, at what point do you get bullish again?  When they hit 0% hits and do QE again?

They were easing again, but now the future is a bit cloudy.  It was a nice little boost to the housing market (during which Irvine still lost value), but was it enough change the direction of real estate permanently?  Hmm...

I look at it as an extension of time to unload property before the next recession kicks in.  As of last week, I've listed another IE property that I acquired five years ago.  The asking price is 219% of what I purchased for (a 119% gain!)

So you're saying Irvine is the only place not to buy because it can't give you 119% gain like you got from some other IE area?

Five years ago I wasn't discouraging anybody from buying in Irvine.  You wouldn't have gotten a 119% gain in most cases, but you would have come out well ahead.

Now I'm telling people don't buy in Irvine or the IE in 2019.  The IE will actually crash harder than Irvine due to working class owners that relied heavily on FHA loans (the new subprime) to get in.  Hence, one of the reasons I'm selling while the getting is still good.

bought 4 years ago, sold recently for 87% roe

But for LL, he would take 119% over 87%.

In all seriousness, 87%? You must be loaded now.

ROE is a different metric than return on invested capital (return on debt + equity).  My ROE (return on equity from original down payment) just based on capital appreciation would be 475%.  When you add in five years of healthy monthly cashflow it's an even higher return.

IE is fine for investing but I wouldn't live there. Trying to time the market is fine for investing, but it doesn't make sense for your residence because real estate cycles are immortal and you are not. Note that this post is not hate speech, some of my best friends live in the IE.

I'm with you; I would not want to live in the IE for anything.  When I was a young man just starting out, I resolved to be a lifetime renter in OC if necessary, to avoid living in the IE or some other less desirable area.  Maybe it sounds elitist, but I just knew what my preferences were and living out there would not make me happy, even if it meant affording a house in my early 20's.

 

[Kings]

ROE is a different metric than return on invested capital (return on debt + equity).  My ROE (return on equity from original down payment) just based on capital appreciation would be 475%.  When you add in five years of healthy monthly cashflow it's an even higher return.

which is why i used roe....just trying to weasel my way in to keep up with my terrible irvine property appreciation 

 

[Mety]

ROE is a different metric than return on invested capital (return on debt + equity).  My ROE (return on equity from original down payment) just based on capital appreciation would be 475%.  When you add in five years of healthy monthly cashflow it's an even higher return.

which is why i used roe....just trying to weasel my way in to keep up with my terrible irvine property appreciation 

Just for fun, I did quick calculations on these two scenarios. The purchased prices and other numbers are my guesses so they could be totally off.

If LL's IE investment property was about $200k, then with a possible 20% downpayment, he can make about $190k by his 475% claim.
If Kings' Irvine property he enjoyed 87% appreciation was about $900k, then it made him about $160k if he had 20% downpayment on that property.

Both are pretty good returns. I think Kings already made that appreciation since he already sold it. We'll see how LL's property does.

 

[zubs]

After selling the property what does one do with the money?
Stick it in Cap One 1.90% savings?

 

[Mety]

After selling the property what does one do with the money?
Stick it in Cap One 1.90% savings?

Buy some candy?

I personally put that for the following home purchasing downpayment.

 

[zubs]

This is in regards to investment properties.

If you thought selling now is optimal because housing is going down, the strategy would be to get your money out and put it into something safe while you wait for the economy to crash.

So I hear some people here have already sold or are in the process of selling their investments.  Where did they put this money after they sold?

Did they take it to Singapore?
Did they put it into a savings account?
Did they buy bonds or stocks?

What are these sellers doing with all their investment cash?
If not housing it has to go somewhere....most safe is a CD or capital one 1.90% savings