Market Top

[irvinehomeowner]

Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Wait. So isn't this your opinion? Why even post this? No one asked you to make this prediction.

#inconsistency

Iho: It doesn?t surprise me how you attack people. It doesn?t help your reputation when you continuously attack people.

I'm surprised how you call it "attack".

Why are you so concerned about my reputation? I just call it as I see it.

And you should be one to talk... instead of answering my questions you call me a "joke" and you insult others and their profession too:

Dude your a complete joke!

Dude your clueless like Madoff. You are such a financial guru with false facts. This guy.

So why don't you answer my questions instead of name calling? I'm still waiting in the Housing Analysis thread, both kenkoko and meccos12 had no problem answering.

 

[eyephone]

I already answered your questions.

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I don?t think it top for Irvine. You got creative financing to work through the system first. We not even at the creative financing yet. Lending is still strict. Slowly, bank will relax some rules and you will get the second tail winds. Do you understand how big this US housing market really is? Other manipulations will take place next. Seasonal slow down, then boom it will take off again early next year.

Just look and pay attention to the OC tax collector reporting 2018-2019. You will see that 99 % of tax will collect on time or ahead of time. Indicate homeowners and renters are all doing well. Why would sellers discount so much is because 1) too much equity in their home so giving some discount is warranted and if WTF price to begin with then reduce it.

 

[eyephone]

I don?t think it top for Irvine. You got creative financing to work through the system first. We not even at the creative financing yet. Lending is still strict. Slowly, bank will relax some rules and you will get the second tail winds. Do you understand how big this US housing market really is? Other manipulations will take place next. Seasonal slow down, then boom it will take off again early next year.

Just look and pay attention to the OC tax collector reporting 2018-2019. You will see that 99 % of tax will collect on time or ahead of time. Indicate homeowners and renters are all doing well. Why would sellers discount so much is because 1) too much equity in their home so giving some discount is warranted and if WTF price to begin with then reduce it.

I respect your opinion and your thoughts. I really appreciate that you don?t attack others when they don?t necessarily agree with you.

#professional

 

[Kings]

I don?t think it top for Irvine. You got creative financing to work through the system first. We not even at the creative financing yet. Lending is still strict. Slowly, bank will relax some rules and you will get the second tail winds. Do you understand how big this US housing market really is? Other manipulations will take place next. Seasonal slow down, then boom it will take off again early next year.

Just look and pay attention to the OC tax collector reporting 2018-2019. You will see that 99 % of tax will collect on time or ahead of time. Indicate homeowners and renters are all doing well. Why would sellers discount so much is because 1) too much equity in their home so giving some discount is warranted and if WTF price to begin with then reduce it.

I respect your opinion and your thoughts. I really appreciate that you don?t attack others when they don?t necessarily agree with you.

#professional

preach!

 

[eyephone]

But if someone is going to make false statements. I will have to respond to set the record clear.

 

[meccos12]

Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Wait. So isn't this your opinion? Why even post this? No one asked you to make this prediction.

#inconsistency

Yes this is my opinion.  I believe I am free to state my opinion.  No one needs to listen my opinion.  However my opinion is, at least, based on current data we have all been seeing, in contrast to yourself.  Every individual can determine for themselves the relevance of my opinion.   

The only thing that is #inconsistent is your stance that this is a seasonal slowdown or not.

Like I said, if you have anything to contribute please post.  I'll do the same.  I particularly would love to see some data to prove the points you are making.  I have yet to see anything from your end. 

#pleasestopbeingbutthurtandshowmeanydatathatsupportsyourposition
#thisisnotseasonalslowdownsowhatelsecanIshowyoutogetitthroughyourthickskull

 

[eyephone]

Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Wait. So isn't this your opinion? Why even post this? No one asked you to make this prediction.

#inconsistency

Iho: It doesn?t surprise me how you attack people. It doesn?t help your reputation when you continuously attack people.

I'm surprised how you call it "attack".

Why are you so concerned about my reputation? I just call it as I see it.

And you should be one to talk... instead of answering my questions you call me a "joke" and you insult others and their profession too:

Dude your a complete joke!

Dude your clueless like Madoff. You are such a financial guru with false facts. This guy.

It shows that you can?t take a joke. It wasn?t meant for you to get but hurt.

That is nothing compared to all the attacks you did to me.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Im gonna call a market top this summer.  I predict prices going down from here on out. 

Wait. So isn't this your opinion? Why even post this? No one asked you to make this prediction.

#inconsistency

Yes this is my opinion.  I believe I am free to state my opinion.  No one needs to listen my opinion.  However my opinion is, at least, based on current data we have all been seeing, in contrast to yourself.  Every individual can determine for themselves the relevance of my opinion.   

The only thing that is #inconsistent is your stance that this is a seasonal slowdown or not.

Why is that inconsistent? I asked the question "Is this seasonal?" because that's what happens this time of year.

You are being inconsistent because you said opinions don't matter in the Housing Analysis thread... to which I responded how valuable they are. And so, if they don't matter, why start a thread stating your opinion? If you don't see that inconsistency, then that's on you.

Like I said, if you have anything to contribute please post.  I'll do the same.  I particularly would love to see some data to prove the points you are making.  I have yet to see anything from your end. 

Maybe because you haven't been reading. I posted links from Zillow that show where prices are at and how they haven't really dropped yet. That same link shows the cyclical pattern I was talking about that follows seasonality.

#pleasestopbeingbutthurtandshowmeanydatathatsupportsyourposition

I don't have to provide data because again, that's the default. Just like I don't have to prove that fall comes after summer.

Now you guys have provided data that shows volumes changed prior to when they usually do, but at the same time, prices have not. And that's the sticking point everyone is looking at. A few of us have stated that you can have a low volume environment but prices remain high... no one responded to that. I can't make a definitive determination this is not seasonal until next year... just like no one can make a definitive call on how much a price drop this will be.

#thisisnotseasonalslowdownsowhatelsecanIshowyoutogetitthroughyourthickskull

I guess you're like eyephone, when someone finds an error in your logic you go for the insults. So I guess this is the end of a cordial discussion because this type of response does not further reasonable debate.

Oh look... eyephone even copied you:

It shows that you can?t take a joke. It wasn?t meant for you to get but hurt.

eyephone: Show me the joke. You're the one who thinks I'm attacking... so really whose feelings are being hurt here? So ironic.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

It shows that you can?t take a joke. It wasn?t meant for you to get but hurt.

That is nothing compared to all the attacks you did to me.

Hah.. you edited your post.

And it only makes you look worse.

Please re-read what you just wrote and tell me who is the one who feels hurt.

Hint: The one who thinks he's being attacked.

Please show me these "attacks" that are hurting your feelings... or can't you take a joke?

 

[eyephone]

It shows that you can?t take a joke. It wasn?t meant for you to get but hurt.

That is nothing compared to all the attacks you did to me.

Hah.. you edited your post.

And it only makes you look worse.

Please re-read what you just wrote and tell me who is the one who feels hurt.

Hint: The one who thinks he's being attacked.

Please show me these "attacks" that are hurting your feelings... or can't you take a joke?

I will respond to you later. That will show the pattern. (not only me but with others)

Happy Friday..

 

[irvinebullhousing]

I don?t think it top for Irvine. You got creative financing to work through the system first. We not even at the creative financing yet. Lending is still strict. Slowly, bank will relax some rules and you will get the second tail winds. Do you understand how big this US housing market really is? Other manipulations will take place next. Seasonal slow down, then boom it will take off again early next year.

Just look and pay attention to the OC tax collector reporting 2018-2019. You will see that 99 % of tax will collect on time or ahead of time. Indicate homeowners and renters are all doing well. Why would sellers discount so much is because 1) too much equity in their home so giving some discount is warranted and if WTF price to begin with then reduce it.

I respect your opinion and your thoughts. I really appreciate that you don?t attack others when they don?t necessarily agree with you.

#professional

I think without tough questions, then we would not try too harder to prove our points of view on open forums. IHO, posted tough questions and so did Eye as well as mecco posted tough questions and countered the arguments. I don't think anyone on here attacked or meaning to character assassinate anyone on their posting. Rather, its tough questions and tough answer to keep the forum interesting and gives a different perspective than what the paid talking-heads at financial news outlet pouring daily. The facts that you guys contribute to the discussion about the ongoing issues in and around Irvine is healthy and valuable, and its not just for housing.

If no one ask or post tough questions, we will loose that spice that makes TalkIrvine informative.

 

[meccos12]

I think without tough questions, then we would not try too harder to prove our points of view on open forums. IHO, posted tough questions and so did Eye as well as mecco posted tough questions and countered the arguments. I don't think anyone on here attacked or meaning to character assassinate anyone on their posting. Rather, its tough questions and tough answer to keep the forum interesting and gives a different perspective than what the paid talking-heads at financial news outlet pouring daily. The facts that you guys contribute to the discussion about the ongoing issues in and around Irvine is healthy and valuable, and its not just for housing.

If no one ask or post tough questions, we will loose that spice that makes TalkIrvine informative.

Well spoken.

 

[meccos12]

Just to spice up the discussion a bit, here is a graph from Steve Thomas from Reports on Housing.  The graph depicts YoY changes from 2017.

I do not think anyone can make the argument that low inventory is the cause of low sales volume anymore. 

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Still waiting to see where I ?attack? people. As CV said I am asking questions (I don?t think they are hard).

I?m not calling people a ?joke? or insulting their intelligence.

#irony

 

[meccos12]

Still waiting to see where I ?attack? people. As CV said I am asking questions (I don?t think they are hard).

I?m not calling people a ?joke? or insulting their intelligence.

#irony

You dont want to drop the bickering and move on it seems. 
Lets keep the discussion pertinent recent housing.
Id love to hear your thoughts on the most recent chart I just posted. 

 

[qwerty]

Still waiting to see where I ?attack? people. As CV said I am asking questions (I don?t think they are hard).

I?m not calling people a ?joke? or insulting their intelligence.

#irony

You are Tustin attacker

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Still waiting to see where I ?attack? people. As CV said I am asking questions (I don?t think they are hard).

I?m not calling people a ?joke? or insulting their intelligence.

#irony

You are Tustin attacker

Okay you got me there. I?m anti radioactive limes.

 

[irvinehomeowner]

Still waiting to see where I ?attack? people. As CV said I am asking questions (I don?t think they are hard).

I?m not calling people a ?joke? or insulting their intelligence.

#irony

You dont want to drop the bickering and move on it seems. 
Lets keep the discussion pertinent recent housing.
Id love to hear your thoughts on the most recent chart I just posted.

When you stop I?ll stop.

What do you want me to say? You still never responded to other member?s posts that high prices can still exist independent of volume levels.

I actually agree with you that we are near market top but my reasoning is mainly because I think prices are ridiculously high.

At the same time however, I don?t think Irvine will see a significant price drop because there are too many factors that will continue to hold them up. Short of some other drastic event, stuff like tax laws, changes in foreign cash accessibility don?t seem to be enough.

 

[meccos12]

When you stop I?ll stop.

What do you want me to say? You still never responded to other member?s posts that high prices can still exist independent of volume levels.

As expected, I didnt think you would have anything to say because charts like this are hard to refute coming from your point of view.

I actually did respond earlier, but Ill repeat it again.  First of all, its a fallacy to think you can have prices (whether high or low) INDEPENDENT of volume.  Volume (#sales) is basically supply and demand.  You can have low volume due to low supply, which will put upward pressures on prices, but if volume is low due to low demand, then there will be downward pressure on prices, especially when supply is increasing, as it is currently doing.

The environment we have been in previously is high prices associated with low supply and high demand.  This is quickly shifting to an environment with low volume due to low demand with skyrocketing supply.  The purpose of me posting charts has been exactly to expose this changing environment.  This will obviously cause downward pressure on prices as no one is buying homes even though there are higher and higher supply of homes.

You elude to the current situation where prices are high but sales are low.  Sure it can exist, but its only for a time being.  If you havent realized, this is the tipping point.  Supply is growing, demand is falling.  If supply continues to grow and demand continues to drop, its a matter of time before prices fall.  Unfortunately for your argument, this trend seems to be picking up more and more steam.  This is the reason, why I started the thread claiming this may be the top of the market. 

Id love to hear your side of things.  Do you think you can stay focused and keep the topic on hand without trying to make tangential arguments?