irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
eyephone said:
None of the above. It is different this time.
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NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
None of the above. It is different this time.
Inventory was ridiculously low last year. All of these stats are juiced, especially the 3x last year's rate...
I do believe in looking at numbers, but this is cherry picking.
Per Redfin CEO, significant housing market slow down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...wer-guide-significant-housing-market-slowdown
healthy
Considering the real estate market the past five years has been:
- A strong, strong seller's market (under $1million)
- Overheated
- Suffering from lack of supply
The market is now:
- A moderate seller's market (under $1million)
- Prices are flattish (only growing at the rate of inflation)
- Supply is increasing
These are all good things and a sign that the real estate market is becoming healthy. It has not been healthy for the past 5 years.
None of the above. It is different this time.
irvinebullhousing
Well-known member
All I have to say to that is, that is real CHICKEN.
Let's be honest, half of what he writes is insulting to a lot of audiences mainly GP homeowners, the other half promoting Eastwood Delano. You know if you put that much into it, you gotta have fair amount of investments in promoting it.
Let's be honest, half of what he writes is insulting to a lot of audiences mainly GP homeowners, the other half promoting Eastwood Delano. You know if you put that much into it, you gotta have fair amount of investments in promoting it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...wn-in-recent-weeks-redfin-ceo-says-2018-08-09
I keep seeing more and more articles such as this. Things are changing. I think we are seeing the beginnings of a significant market change.
We can all legitimately argue whether we are at a peak or not. However I think its hard to argue that this is no longer the same market we have been seeing for the past few years.
I keep seeing more and more articles such as this. Things are changing. I think we are seeing the beginnings of a significant market change.
We can all legitimately argue whether we are at a peak or not. However I think its hard to argue that this is no longer the same market we have been seeing for the past few years.
Mety:
Looking at the analysis by John Rubino at DollarCollapse.com
US Housing Bubble Enters Stage Two: Suddenly-Motivated Sellers
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/us-housing-bubble-motivated-sellers/
Another article summarizes John?s analysis.
Trouble Ahead For The Housing Market https://seekingalpha.com/article/4187673-trouble-ahead-housing-market
?He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:
Stage One: Mania - Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably affordable levels.
Stage Two: Peak - Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
Stage Three: Bust - As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.
Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage Two after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:
the supply of homes for sale during the "all important" spring market rose at 3x last year's rate, 30 of America's 100 largest cities now have more inventory than they did a year ago, and mortgage applications for new homes dropped 9% YoY.?
Looking at the analysis by John Rubino at DollarCollapse.com
US Housing Bubble Enters Stage Two: Suddenly-Motivated Sellers
https://www.dollarcollapse.com/us-housing-bubble-motivated-sellers/
Another article summarizes John?s analysis.
Trouble Ahead For The Housing Market https://seekingalpha.com/article/4187673-trouble-ahead-housing-market
?He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:
Stage One: Mania - Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably affordable levels.
Stage Two: Peak - Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
Stage Three: Bust - As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.
Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage Two after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:
the supply of homes for sale during the "all important" spring market rose at 3x last year's rate, 30 of America's 100 largest cities now have more inventory than they did a year ago, and mortgage applications for new homes dropped 9% YoY.?
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
Like real estate, YF/BTB is cyclical.
He'll probably pop up again with a new screen name... let's see what the new version will be.
He'll probably pop up again with a new screen name... let's see what the new version will be.
paperboyNC
New member
eyephone said:
Inventory was ridiculously low last year. All of these stats are juiced, especially the 3x last year's rate...
I do believe in looking at numbers, but this is cherry picking.
?Redfin CEO blames lower guide on "significant" housing market slowdown
Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman says the company lowered its Q3 forecast after ?an unexpected drop in Redfin?s bookings growth in the past three weeks, slowing traffic growth in a weakening real-estate market.?
Kelman says the ?significant? housing market slowdown could continue in the coming months, reappearing in August and September after slight relief last month.
Kelman: ?For the first time in years, we are getting reports from managers of some markets that home buyer demand is waning, especially in some of Redfin?s largest markets.? He called out Seattle, Portland, and San Jose by name.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...wer-guide-significant-housing-market-slowdown
Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman says the company lowered its Q3 forecast after ?an unexpected drop in Redfin?s bookings growth in the past three weeks, slowing traffic growth in a weakening real-estate market.?
Kelman says the ?significant? housing market slowdown could continue in the coming months, reappearing in August and September after slight relief last month.
Kelman: ?For the first time in years, we are getting reports from managers of some markets that home buyer demand is waning, especially in some of Redfin?s largest markets.? He called out Seattle, Portland, and San Jose by name.?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...wer-guide-significant-housing-market-slowdown
Mety said:
Per Redfin CEO, significant housing market slow down.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekin...wer-guide-significant-housing-market-slowdown
paperboyNC
New member
eyephone said:
healthy
Considering the real estate market the past five years has been:
- A strong, strong seller's market (under $1million)
- Overheated
- Suffering from lack of supply
The market is now:
- A moderate seller's market (under $1million)
- Prices are flattish (only growing at the rate of inflation)
- Supply is increasing
These are all good things and a sign that the real estate market is becoming healthy. It has not been healthy for the past 5 years.
paperboyNC
New member
I'll add that, that in a market where prices are only going up 3% per year, a lot of seller's are going to be frustrated.
Imagine you bought the following brand-new home:
$1.1million list price for 2,800sqft detached condo
$150,000 design center upgrades and closing costs
$30,000 landscaping
$10,000 window covering, interior finishes
Total
$1,290,000
When you go to sell, the realtor asks for 1% commission plus 2.5% buyer commission. Just to break even you have to ask:
$1.34m
You were promised you'd make money on real estate, so you list at $1.395m
You'd have this listing:https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/116-Follyhatch-92618/home/143915050
For their 1% commission, your realtor takes two photos and calls it a day. Inventory appears to be spiking and sitting and price reductions are in your future.
Does it mean that prices are falling? No - it just means that some buyers overpaid for their homes.
Imagine you bought the following brand-new home:
$1.1million list price for 2,800sqft detached condo
$150,000 design center upgrades and closing costs
$30,000 landscaping
$10,000 window covering, interior finishes
Total
$1,290,000
When you go to sell, the realtor asks for 1% commission plus 2.5% buyer commission. Just to break even you have to ask:
$1.34m
You were promised you'd make money on real estate, so you list at $1.395m
You'd have this listing:https://www.redfin.com/CA/Irvine/116-Follyhatch-92618/home/143915050
For their 1% commission, your realtor takes two photos and calls it a day. Inventory appears to be spiking and sitting and price reductions are in your future.
Does it mean that prices are falling? No - it just means that some buyers overpaid for their homes.