Mark Hanson doesn't think we're out of the woods yet

NEW -> Contingent Buyer Assistance Program
Delroy has written a post on the <a href="http://www.cotohousingblog.com/?p=5974">Coto Housing Blog</a> in which he cites the real numbers concerning what is happening in the higher end.

12 months to 24 months ago, there were 8 sales in the $2.25 - $2.50 mil range.

In the last 12 months, there have been 0 sales in the $2.25 - $2.50 mil range.

With 11 current listings, the last 12 months sale translate into a monthly inventory of ..., well, it is an infinite monthly supply of homes is that range.

And if we use Rolar's six month data target we still get an infinite monthly supply.
 
On interest rates staying low forever, and the impact on the housing market, we have an obvious example in Japan. Property valuation there have NEVER recovered despite morre than two decades since beginning of the crash, and near zero policy rates and sub 2% mortgages. So to answer RobLar's question, what happens if rates stay low "forever" (or for some protracted period), that will be a clear indication of deflationary pressure and will sound the death knell for all levered asset prices.



As for unemployment, we are still losing 250K-300K jobs per month. 2010 will not see any recovery in the unemployment. I fully expect the the unemployment rates to breach the peak of 1982 when it reached 10.8%. The employment picture will provide no help for housing.
 
Long term house price appreciation ultimately depends upon wage inflation and new household formation, not the transformation of renters into owners. In the very short run, the transformation of renters into owners will increase home sales, but also results in vacancy of residences which in turn results in housing price decreases. New household formation can only be created through an increase in employment and an increase in wages over inflation. Forget optimism and pessimism and instead think realism. Will employment increase anytime soon? Or will wages inflation outpace price inflation anytime soon?
 
[quote author="graphrix" date=1256999518][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1256952952][quote author="graphrix" date=1256890730]Volume is there? WTF are you people smoking over there at NAR? Please, I wanna know so I don't become so... (must be nice)... naive. Sales volume is still 30%-40% <strong>BELOW HISTORICAL AVERAGES</strong>. Duh volume is up, it is up from record low volume not seen since the 80s. The problem is... it is still below average, meaning it is not up, it is still below <strong>NORMAL</strong>. Woo hoo sales are up from the last three most dismal years of home sales probably since the depression when adjusted for housing stock/population growth. People who say and/or believe sales are up are really bad at math and probably buy lottery tickets.</blockquote>


Please post sources for your numbers. From first hand data, over the past 2 months I'm seeing about a 20% decrease from 2005 sales volume. Not to mention, if todays sales numbers were the same as the 2002-2005 levels, you would expect prices to follow a similar pattern. I'm not arguing for substantial price increases, as always, I've been saying stability and slight price increases for the low AND MID-level price ranges. Yes, I think the recovery has moved onto medium priced housing. It's hard to check your "superior" math, when you don't provide support.</blockquote>


Getting your data from fantasyland doesn't count. From DataQuick:



September sales in OC:



02: 3848

03: 4976

04: 3585

05: 4072

06: 2664

07: 1643 (All time low not seen since the depression when adjusted for housing stock/population growth)

08: 2667

09: 2828



It looks like sales are off from 2005 by 31%, not 20%. The sales numbers are no where near 02-05 numbers, they are more closely following 06 and 08 numbers, and what happened to prices in those years and after? Stabilization my a$$, anyone who has studied the market in depth and knows what a dead cat bounce is, knows a dead cat bounce when they see it.



BTW, we all called a dead cat bounce in prices. Did you forget that? We were wrong that there isn't more inventory from foreclosures... wow... big freakin deal. It just makes the dead cat bounce worse when it falls. You must feel really special for being right for a whole six months, is your mother proud?</blockquote>


Try 9 months, going strong. And to refute your numbers. According to the MLS aka fantasyland?, (and I know your answer is just going to be simply that you cannot trust the MLS because you can't actually find a good argument) resale home sales in OC are listed below:



OCTOBER:

2009 - 2298

2005 - 2855



September & October:

2009 - 4853

2005 - 6057



A decrease from October 05 to Oct 09 of 19.5%. A decrease from Sept & Oct. 05 to 09 of 19.87%. Perma-bears are wrong just as much as perma-bulls. You need to work on your debate skills, you say this stuff in almost every post you make. "<strong>anyone who has studied the market in depth</strong>." Blah blah blah, I'm right because anyone that knows the market in depth knows I'm right and if you don't think I'm right then you just don't know the market in depth. And, my data is right and your data is wrong... SOLD! - you convinced me...



If you claim that you were just wrong about the size of inventory and that alone over the past 9 months, then it's time to open that basement door and smell some fresh air. I'm sure your mother is making you breakfast anyways.



<img src="http://occoastalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/computer.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1257032868]Oh my gosh! That is hilarious!</blockquote>


<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3362/3196671424_70f7766063.jpg" alt="" />
 
[quote author="no_vaseline" date=1257033110][quote author="awgee" date=1257032868]Oh my gosh! That is hilarious!</blockquote>


<img src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3362/3196671424_70f7766063.jpg" alt="" /></blockquote>
Oh, you don't think that photo is funny?
 
Currently, we are in the <a href="http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/option-arms-enter-the-eye-of-the-hurricane-the-189-billion-recast-problem-targeted-directly-at-the-california-housing-market-of-189-billion-in-securitized-option-arms-109-billion-in-california/">eye of the hurricane.</a>
 
JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill
 
[quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Congratulations on your purchase! I actually previewed your home when it was on broker preview, and really liked it. Brand new construction, nice and open, very clean and sleak look, and close to the beach. No wonder it sold so quickly.. Again, congrats. Glad to see you're not so worried about short term home prices and just enjoying your new home.
 
[quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.
 
[quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854

</blockquote>


That house is very pretty. Congrats!



[quote author="JCie" date=1257174535]

My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I try to be impartial on both sides and like to hear both sides of the argument. I rent, so implicitly I stand to benefit is prices go down or stay flat - though I don't care as much as I used to.



It does seem to be the basis of your argument is, mainly, that things (well, prices) have been improving over a short period (of 6 months), and this should continue. From what I can tell, I don't need to have any real estate expertise to extrapolate trends from two data points, so I must admit the argument seems perhaps overly simple? Yes, there are factors messing with the fundamentals, though that seems to me to be an argument against buying, not for, since abnormal factors are, by definition, supposed to be transient in nature.



Why would you buy yourself but tell friends to wait? That doesn't make sense.
 
[quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258454576][quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?</blockquote>


Everyone is apparently 100% certain.
 
[quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258457056][quote author="awgee" date=1258454576][quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?</blockquote>


Everyone is apparently 100% certain.</blockquote>
So?

Yeah, everyone has an opinion.

Some are more certain that others.

Some are 100% sure that someone else can not be 100% sure.

Or maybe it just makes them doubt themselves that someone who has a different opinion is sure of themselves.

Or maybe it just pisses them off that they have been wrong and someone else has been right, so they feel the need to denigrate others who know.
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258458653][quote author="RoLar_USC" date=1258457056][quote author="awgee" date=1258454576][quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?</blockquote>


Everyone is apparently 100% certain.</blockquote>
So?

Yeah, everyone has an opinion.

Some are more certain that others.

Some are 100% sure that someone else can not be 100% sure.

Or maybe it just makes them doubt themselves that someone who has a different opinion is sure of themselves.

Or maybe it just pisses them off that they have been wrong and someone else has been right, so they feel the need to denigrate others who know.</blockquote>


Has Graph possessed Awgee?
 
[quote author="awgee" date=1258454576][quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?</blockquote>
There are only 2 things that you can have 100% certainty about....death and taxes. ;)
 
[quote author="USCTrojanCPA" date=1258459602][quote author="awgee" date=1258454576][quote author="JCie" date=1257174535][quote author="billfromdp" date=1257163231]JC

Just my thoughts:



I too took the plunge in March and bought my dream home in Dana Point:

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/33771-Robles-Dr_Dana-Point_CA_92629_sold-2035854



I bought because I could afford the down payment, and my monthly payment comfortably. I have no idea what the value of my house will be in 6 months or 6 years and I really don't care. It is a brand new house so it is impossible for me to say that the price I paid is x% below the peak. But I have to say that when you say "Things have turned. Yes, they may crash further in 2010 but some people on this forum are obnoxiously bearish." it cracks me up because what I hear you admitting to is that you were on the sidelines cheering for the market to crash and now that you have bought you want everybody to cheer for the housing market to go up. If you bought a house that has only dropped 30% from the peak I think you could see another 20-25% drop on the downside. I know a lot of people who had high paying jobs or were self employed, many tied to real estate whom are sitting in their houses and haven't made a payment for well over a year. Many of these people live in Newport Coast. Eventually when the banks take these properties back and they will I believe you will see another hard hit to home values. Newport Coast and the high end of Irvine have another hard pill to swallow in the near future. In my opinion another 20-30%. And keep in mind I just bought so I'm not a potential buyer waiting for the market to fall. I do however agree with your last comment



"My point is: your home is an emotional purchase, not just a rational one. If you find a home you love and you can afford it, buy it and enjoy it. "



Best wishes to all



Bill</blockquote>


Bill,

You pretty much hit the nail on the head. When you drop a couple mil, you gotta protect your investment! :D



I'm not cheering for prices to go up and I don't think it's realistic for prices to go up (except temporarily). I'm still telling my friends to wait until next year to get a better deal.



My "obnoxiously bearish" comment was in regards to posts that dismiss the fact that things have turned in the short term, posts where people claim with 100% certainty that they know what's going to happen and when, and posts where wild claims of double digit drops in the low-end are still to come. Sure, it seems obvious that with the coming "shadow inventory", the upturn is temporary and that things will crash further. What *I've* finally had to admit is that I don't know when, how, and even IF this really happen.



I've thrown my arms up at saying I know where things are going to be a year or two from now.



I don't think anyone on here would have predicted the DOW going from 6550 to hitting 10,000 this year. Yes, there are a million reasons why it shouldn't have happened but it did. Massive government intervention, an ongoing stream of strong cash buyers for the *best* properties, and the banks finally figuring out that they have to be proactive... these are factors are messing with the fundamentals. Prices may not go up but we could end up sideways for a long time. A 20% drop and 6 - 7 years of sideways movement have a similar impact.



With the said, congrats on your recent home purchase.</blockquote>


I know with 100% certainty that prices will continue to fall, and there will be double digit drops in the low end. And I do not care if I am obnoxiously bearish. I care about being right.







IR, do you remember the things we were called in 2006?</blockquote>
There are only 2 things that you can have 100% certainty about....death and taxes. ;)</blockquote>


Not so. I am 100% certain you do not speak for me. :)
 
[quote author="muzie" date=1258449590]

I try to be impartial on both sides and like to hear both sides of the argument. I rent, so implicitly I stand to benefit is prices go down or stay flat - though I don't care as much as I used to.



It does seem to be the basis of your argument is, mainly, that things (well, prices) have been improving over a short period (of 6 months), and this should continue. From what I can tell, I don't need to have any real estate expertise to extrapolate trends from two data points, so I must admit the argument seems perhaps overly simple? Yes, there are factors messing with the fundamentals, though that seems to me to be an argument against buying, not for, since abnormal factors are, by definition, supposed to be transient in nature.



Why would you buy yourself but tell friends to wait? That doesn't make sense.</blockquote>


OK, let me clarify a few things.



I'm NOT saying prices are going to go up. I don't believe they will. I'm saying that prices dropping another 15% - 20% may not happen. I think what's most likely is a slight price drop across the board, continued drop on the very high end, and a housing market that will be sluggish for years to come.



I tell my friends that they may have to wait a year if they are in bidding situations on every home they try to buy. Most of my friends are not in the same market that I am. Where I bought, I had competition but it wasn't crazy like it is in the sub 750k homes. Most of my friends aren't in the same financial situation so the advice I give is relevant to them, not necessarily me.



After I sold my home in late 05 (to escape the bubble), I rented a nice but relatively conservative home for 4 years waiting things out. I've been looking at homes for the past year. I knew that the market was turning even in the 2mil+ range (for ocean view properties in Newport Coast). I could see because I started having to compete with cash buyers who started the "over asking" game. So when I got the chance to buy a home from a owners who had to sell (but not in shortsale/REO) that was stunningly beautiful and for a good price.. I jumped on it.



I don't want to wait another year. If prices drop, it would stink but financially, I'll be fine. I'm going to live in this house for at least 6 years anyway and when I sell, it will be to buy a 5M+ house.



I will repeat the point of my original post: If you find the home you love and that you can comfortably afford and you're going to live there for a while, don't paralyze yourself by thinking you know 100% what the market is going to do a year or two from now. Buy it and enjoy it. Life is short.
 
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