March Home Prices Up 8.9% nationwide, biggest increase in four years

[fortune11]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

 

[Liar Loan]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

No, it's legit funny.  You should be a comedian.  My job involves packaging $billions in mortgage bonds for sale each month, so it's funny to read what you said. 

I've actually re-read your comment 3-4x now, and each time I laugh harder.  LOL...

 

[fortune11]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

No, it's legit funny.  You should be a comedian.  My job involves packaging $billions in mortgage bonds for sale each month, so it's funny to read what you said. 

I've actually re-read your comment 3-4x now, and each time I laugh harder.  LOL...

ok so you are the expert - answer this "simple" question -- what makes bond prices move ?

inputting data into a screen that spits out a number based on a model is not the same as "understanding" a market .  that make you laugh some more ?

 

[Liar Loan]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

No, it's legit funny.  You should be a comedian.  My job involves packaging $billions in mortgage bonds for sale each month, so it's funny to read what you said. 

I've actually re-read your comment 3-4x now, and each time I laugh harder.  LOL...

ok so you are the expert - answer this "simple" question -- what makes bond prices move ?

inputting data into a screen that spits out a number based on a model is not the same as "understanding" a market .  that make you laugh some more ?

Much like Hillary, it's time to accept your defeat and move on.

 

[fortune11]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

No, it's legit funny.  You should be a comedian.  My job involves packaging $billions in mortgage bonds for sale each month, so it's funny to read what you said. 

I've actually re-read your comment 3-4x now, and each time I laugh harder.  LOL...

ok so you are the expert - answer this "simple" question -- what makes bond prices move ?

inputting data into a screen that spits out a number based on a model is not the same as "understanding" a market .  that make you laugh some more ?

Much like Hillary, it's time to accept your defeat and move on.

I am sure 20 years from now , you will still be using Hillary Clinton  as a crutch when nothing else works

#FakeExpert

 

[paydawg]

LOL = "I got called on my bluff , so I will pretend to act all funny and amused so I can sneak out of any further debate which may expose me"

There, fixed it for ya 

If there's decreased QE and rising rates -- aren't those two big drivers why bond prices will go down?  I'm guessing credit risk is not changing enough to be a driver in either direction. 

I would not recommend putting money in bonds anytime soon.  Especially long-term bonds.

No, it's legit funny.  You should be a comedian.  My job involves packaging $billions in mortgage bonds for sale each month, so it's funny to read what you said. 

I've actually re-read your comment 3-4x now, and each time I laugh harder.  LOL...

ok so you are the expert - answer this "simple" question -- what makes bond prices move ?

inputting data into a screen that spits out a number based on a model is not the same as "understanding" a market .  that make you laugh some more ?

Much like Hillary, it's time to accept your defeat and move on.

I am sure 20 years from now , you will still be using Hillary Clinton  as a crutch when nothing else works

#FakeExpert

 

[Kings]

 

[usctrojancpa]

Interesting discussion so I'll add my thoughts for whatever they are worth...

First off, the leading indicator for home prices is my opinion is inventory levels (aka # of months of inventory on the market).  Both the Irvine market, along with some other cities that I track, have seen their year-over-year inventory levels decrease.  What's driving it?  I think it's a combination of the new tax plan, move-up buyers keeping their small properties as rentals versus selling them, increased number of investors (from the savy 1031 exchange buyers to the first-time investors), household formation outpacing new construction, healthy economic growth resulting in increasing household income, and of course FCBs continuing to purchase properties. 

Sure there are some signs here and there that we may be in a bubble (e.g. increased number of different type of loan products and buyers willing to pay above appraised value), but we are nowhere near what it was like back in 2003-2007.  As I mentioned above, keep an eye out on the amount of resale inventory on the market since that will be your tell where prices may be heading in the near term.  I personally don't think the slow uptick in mortgage rates has dampened demand and it may have been gotten people off the sideline to buy sooner rather than later before rates go even higher.  From what I've seen, there are a lot of buyers out there (especially in the sub $1m market) but they are more discriminating than they were 10 years and not buying just anything/anywhere. 

 

[usctrojancpa]

In the long run ... we are all dead anyways

Timing matters in everything in life.  A bubble that lasts for 5-6 years ( I have been hearing this bubble talk since 2013 btw) , is it really a bubble  ?

Bubble sounds like a nice word when it rolls off one's tongue but does it have any actionable ideas ? What would you have done if you believed we were in a bubble since last 5 years  ? sit around in cash and not own a home  ?

see where this logic takes you ?

I already said a bubble is not defined by when it pops.  If you know the price of something is irrationally expensive, then you should avoid buying it, and if you already own it, you should attempt to sell at the optimal price.

Yes . and how do you define optimal ? rational ?

Fair value is known only in hindsight , not looking forward .  Despite what your financial advisor may sell you on ...

Optimal = the best pricing you can get
Rational = using logic as opposed to emotion

Price is what you pay.  Value is what you receive in return.

Bubbles are not based on value, but on the irrational prices people are willing to pay.

That is true! I totally agree with that. I wouldn't pay $905K for that Silverleaf home that MM sold. But that doesn't stop some other sucker motivated buyer from getting emotionally wrapped up in their head and make an irrational emotionally-driven offer (well above appraisal) to get what they want. If they SEE value, then more power to them.

I just provided a little "encouragement" to the buyer agents to have their buyers come strong. 

 

[fortune11]

I think the bubble term has been so often misused that it has lost any real meaning.  real bubbles come along only once or twice a generation.  otherwise what you have is many "mini-cycles"

like the one from 2009-2013 (recovery, with a hiccup in between from Europe in 2011)

then 2014 - 16 (slowdown)

now again 2017+ (recovery)

if we didn't have a problem pop up every 3-4 years , and had we gone up more or less in a straight line , things would be different ... but the reality is , there is a mini crisis every now and then that flushes out the excess and resets risk accordingly

 

[Liar Loan]

I think the bubble term has been so often misused that it has lost any real meaning.  real bubbles come along only once or twice a generation. 

This is demonstrably wrong.  Just since 2000 we've had:

-dotcom bubble
-real estate bubble
-gold/commodities bubble
-bitcoin bubble
-bond bubble

Yes, people like to throw the term "bubble" around when there isn't one, but anytime excessive speculation leads to parabolic price increases and a flood of "retail" investors (if you could even call them that) pouring into a market they otherwise know very little about, you have a bubble.

Real estate is starting to act frothy, but there hasn't been the excessive speculation leading to 20% prices increases year after year like we saw from 2003-2007.  There are a lot of investors and retail buyers paying too much for property right now, but they don't seem to be doing so with the expectation of getting a double digit price increase every year.

 

[fortune11]

I thought we we were going to end this at "LOL"  . Anyways

One man's bubble is another man's irrational exuberance

What is a speculative bubble ?  There is no real definition but -- when people buy something solely because prices are going up. This is also called "trend following" or " momentum investing" strategies -- and there are many hedge funds and quant funds doing this quite successfully. 

Whenever a bubble starts, it bursts way before it has a chance of becoming a bubble.  Reason?  At the very first sign of trouble, short sellers appear and take prices down , which then readjust .  Then shorts cover and prices find stability and then momentum builds again.  The cycle keeps repeating itself. 

It is when the shorts throw in the towel and join the party , that a truly spectacular bubble is formed which is what happened in 2000 with tech stocks.  Those are rare .  Bitcoin ? Meh . 

Bond bubble ?  Are people buying bonds because bond prices are going up ? Yawn ... 

 

[Liar Loan]

This tells me you don't know much about the bond market or how it works ... also bitcoin, stocks, RE, etc...

 

[fortune11]

You forgot the LOL at the end , Mr.  expert