March data..OUCH!
- Thread starter optimusprime_IHB
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Indeed, I don't disagree that '02 pricing is a very real possibility. Given the during the perfect storm of the bubble, home prices rarely ever (4 months during the whole bubble period saw 3+%) appreciated by more than 3% per month, I seriously doubt they will continue to depreciate by more than 3% per month for a protracted period.
Prices tend to be sticky on the way down... They haven't been of late but as the depth of declines gets deeper, more and more buyers will come off the fence to purchase and stretch the correction out a bit more.
I was a Yamaha mechanic and a certified Stihl/Honda/Toro mechanic during the early 90's. I have to disagree with your assessment. Yes, new things are purchased when times are good, but things are maintained when times are fair/good/great. When times go bad, people leave their bikes/boats/etc. in the back of the garage, or sell them for cheap. Landscape maintenance companies replace their own sparkplugs, sharpen their own blades, and buy parts to replace themselves rather than pay the shop flat rate. New bikes/boats/lawnmowers aren't being purchased, so they don't need to be uncrated and assembled for sale. Eventually machanics start getting laid off or quitting because there isn't enough work to support them. I ended up moving to Las Vegas because there was work there (compared to OC in '93, Vegas was a boomtown) and I wasn't the only one.
No. If you want to know more, call Graph and ask him.
Things have changed since the early 1990's. Folks attitudes have changed like you wouldn't believe. I don't think it ever recovered in OC to 1989-esque levels. The boom happened in the IE where you can more easily play with toys. I guess that's my point. It didn't boom for OC Honda in Orange the way it took off for Chapperell, if you know what I mean.
I agree with that part. That is happening now. Just not much repair anymore. Mostly uncrating.
We are arguing two different things graph. You are talking about job growth and how RE (with your inclusion of construction and some professional services) has dominated the growth in OC workforce over recent years. Totally agree with you. I think construction has probably dominated job growth in recent years as both the residential and commercial side have been booming.
My posts on this thread were in response to the contention that loss of jobs by real estate agents, mortgage people, title agents, etc. have created a significant drag on the OC economy. Looking at your data in your analysis, I'd say that supports my conclusion. The true RE portion of the workforce is relatively small, i.e. those that are categorized as "real estate", accounting for less than 2% of average non-farm workforce. Am I interpreting your spreadsheet correctly?
The much larger piece of your RE workforce pie comes from construction, making up 5% of historical average. Over the last two years ended in February, the construction sector in OC had lost 5,700 jobs. Yes, it has not grown, yes that is bad, but we are talking about a loss of one-third of one percent of the nonfarm workforce lost over a 24-month period. Those figures will probably trend down further as commercial construction tails off, but we're not there yet. If by the summer that figure in construction stays south of 100K jobs, I'll agree with your much bleaker outlook.
For something to argue about, yo!
As bright as this group is, the ubergroupthink gets me down sometimes, so I found something petty and tangental to pick apart.
Oh...if it were not sooooo late. Yeah, you get the fact that RE has been a major factor to the job growth, I get that. What you are not getting is the LACK of job growth from sectors outside of RE. They suck, I dare you, I double dare you, no... f%&kthat... I triple dare you, I want you to find me one sector that has seen growth in the last year, aside from healthcare and education. I don't give a rat's ass about how RE is a drag, my point is there has been 0, ZERO, NADA, ZIP, ZILCH, ABSOLUTELY, NONE, NO growth in the OC job market. YOU NEED JOB GROWTH TO SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF HOUSING AND THE ECONOMY. Manufacturing is down YOY, service providing is down YOY, and retail is up in such a low percentage that the zeros on my calculator are greater than positive numbers multiplied. In 8, yeah that is an eight, years professional and business services grew by less than 20k jobs. Pardon me while I puke from the less than 1% growth over 8, eight years, or the 0.125% growth per year. How much has the civilian labor force grown?
Get ready to drink the bitter old Kool-Aid, and check my comment in the commercial RE/Jamboree thread. CBRE shows a negative absorption rate of -2.5 million sqft. YOY. Blame the RE/mortgage market all you want, but the sh!t storm in CRE is about to hit. Then, take a deep breath, and stare at the computer screen, and ask yourself... has this nutter been just a nutter, or has this nutter been right? *cough* foreclosures *cough* If by summer what you say is this true, then you have drinks on me, and I have drinks on you if I am right by the end of summer. And, I will make sure skek holds us to this.
Agreed. I think the March job numbers are the belleweather for what is about to come. It is the first horseman of the housing/economic apocalypse about to hit California. When our joblessness is higher than that of Ohio or other industrialized states that have suffered severe job losses over the last decade, you know something is seriously amiss. I think it is only going to go higher. As for IT, I wouldn't bet my savings on it sustaining high employment. I say this because I sell complex network designs and services for a large telecom in our networking division and I just got my 90 day "surplus" notice. I work directly with CIO's and CTO's and trust me on this one, their budgets are already seized and they're looking to cut costs at every turn. My funnel dried-up in no less than three months ... tough times ahead in IT too I'm afraid.
I am always looking for such predictions to see how good the guesses were (and of course, because I am a waiting renter), but I don't get that one - -30% of what? Do you predict that the average price might go down another 30% of the current average prices and then bottom out?
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
I respectfully disagree.
Technicians are 100% of my customer base. With all due respect, I think you underestimate the ammount of work they did when times were good. It's not much.
When times are good, people buy new toys that rapidly depreciate 50-80% because the new one is better than the old one and it's new and not worn (these toys are rarely cared for properly and have a really short life expectancy). When times are bad, they don't buy anything. Either way, there isn't a huge market working on them.
I can tell you that regular automotive technicians are very slow right now. $4 a gallon gas has folks not driving as much, and driving smaller (and more reliable) cars. Everything from body shops to dealership warranty work is at a crawl right now.
I also disagree with IPO's contention that we can't get to '02 pricing in a year. We had a perfect storm to create this mess, and now we have the perfect storm to clear it out. But we're probally in agreement that we're headed to 2002 prices, only when is up for debate.
Technicians are 100% of my customer base. With all due respect, I think you underestimate the ammount of work they did when times were good. It's not much.
When times are good, people buy new toys that rapidly depreciate 50-80% because the new one is better than the old one and it's new and not worn (these toys are rarely cared for properly and have a really short life expectancy). When times are bad, they don't buy anything. Either way, there isn't a huge market working on them.
I can tell you that regular automotive technicians are very slow right now. $4 a gallon gas has folks not driving as much, and driving smaller (and more reliable) cars. Everything from body shops to dealership warranty work is at a crawl right now.
I also disagree with IPO's contention that we can't get to '02 pricing in a year. We had a perfect storm to create this mess, and now we have the perfect storm to clear it out. But we're probally in agreement that we're headed to 2002 prices, only when is up for debate.
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
no_vaseline said:
Indeed, I don't disagree that '02 pricing is a very real possibility. Given the during the perfect storm of the bubble, home prices rarely ever (4 months during the whole bubble period saw 3+%) appreciated by more than 3% per month, I seriously doubt they will continue to depreciate by more than 3% per month for a protracted period.
Prices tend to be sticky on the way down... They haven't been of late but as the depth of declines gets deeper, more and more buyers will come off the fence to purchase and stretch the correction out a bit more.
Nude_IHB
New member
Are you a Snap-on dealer?no_vaseline said:
I was a Yamaha mechanic and a certified Stihl/Honda/Toro mechanic during the early 90's. I have to disagree with your assessment. Yes, new things are purchased when times are good, but things are maintained when times are fair/good/great. When times go bad, people leave their bikes/boats/etc. in the back of the garage, or sell them for cheap. Landscape maintenance companies replace their own sparkplugs, sharpen their own blades, and buy parts to replace themselves rather than pay the shop flat rate. New bikes/boats/lawnmowers aren't being purchased, so they don't need to be uncrated and assembled for sale. Eventually machanics start getting laid off or quitting because there isn't enough work to support them. I ended up moving to Las Vegas because there was work there (compared to OC in '93, Vegas was a boomtown) and I wasn't the only one.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
Nude said:
No. If you want to know more, call Graph and ask him.
Things have changed since the early 1990's. Folks attitudes have changed like you wouldn't believe. I don't think it ever recovered in OC to 1989-esque levels. The boom happened in the IE where you can more easily play with toys. I guess that's my point. It didn't boom for OC Honda in Orange the way it took off for Chapperell, if you know what I mean.
I agree with that part. That is happening now. Just not much repair anymore. Mostly uncrating.
optimusprime_IHB
New member
Hahaha...Ice Cube... "Today was a good day!"
Love that song.
Love that song.
graphrix_IHB
New member
Ipop,
Seriously... no... seriously, your job stats are off, way off, somewhere on planet Kool-Aid. I suggest you check out the archive of the blog, and read the REal jobs situation. I have been watching the jobs, and posting about them for almost three years now.
Go check those spread sheets again, and look at the shrinking civilian labor force. This includes self-employed people, and it has been shrinking so badly, only the 90s have seen numbers that awful. We are losing jobs, and civilian labor force, at a faster and larger rate than we did during the tech bust. It shrank by 19,100 jobs YOY, and if you factor that into the unemployment number, the real unemployment number is closer to over 6% when you factor in normal growth.
Professional, technical, and scientific services have seen 0, zero, zip, nada, absolutely no growth what so ever. This was the ever growing sector, that was supposed to save the OC job market because it was immune from RE, even if the architectural sector has seen growth. The tech part of this sector is shrinking, and still after almost 7 years later, this sector has yet to get to the same level it once was. That is horrible, awful, and shows that OC has a long way to go to recover from this.
How many tech people, attorneys, CPAs, couriers, accountants, retail, interior designers, restaurants, etc. are affected by the mortgage, construction, homebuilder, RE bust?
There has been 0, zero, nada, zip, zilch, absolutely no job growth in OC outside of healthcare and education. Education shrank in the tech bust, but not in the 90s, and healthcare has grown every single year since 1990. So, anyone with quark of common sense would never, ever cite this as being positive.
No growth is not good for the economy here, and we have not seen growth in any sector other than RE the last three years, which only makes it worse. Factor in how many jobs were doing well because of RE, then it just gets worse.
For a spreadsheet junkie like yourself... I am really, really disappointed.
Seriously... no... seriously, your job stats are off, way off, somewhere on planet Kool-Aid. I suggest you check out the archive of the blog, and read the REal jobs situation. I have been watching the jobs, and posting about them for almost three years now.
Go check those spread sheets again, and look at the shrinking civilian labor force. This includes self-employed people, and it has been shrinking so badly, only the 90s have seen numbers that awful. We are losing jobs, and civilian labor force, at a faster and larger rate than we did during the tech bust. It shrank by 19,100 jobs YOY, and if you factor that into the unemployment number, the real unemployment number is closer to over 6% when you factor in normal growth.
Professional, technical, and scientific services have seen 0, zero, zip, nada, absolutely no growth what so ever. This was the ever growing sector, that was supposed to save the OC job market because it was immune from RE, even if the architectural sector has seen growth. The tech part of this sector is shrinking, and still after almost 7 years later, this sector has yet to get to the same level it once was. That is horrible, awful, and shows that OC has a long way to go to recover from this.
How many tech people, attorneys, CPAs, couriers, accountants, retail, interior designers, restaurants, etc. are affected by the mortgage, construction, homebuilder, RE bust?
There has been 0, zero, nada, zip, zilch, absolutely no job growth in OC outside of healthcare and education. Education shrank in the tech bust, but not in the 90s, and healthcare has grown every single year since 1990. So, anyone with quark of common sense would never, ever cite this as being positive.
No growth is not good for the economy here, and we have not seen growth in any sector other than RE the last three years, which only makes it worse. Factor in how many jobs were doing well because of RE, then it just gets worse.
For a spreadsheet junkie like yourself... I am really, really disappointed.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
And so I can further beat a dead horse with Nude, from today's OC Regester.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/orange-county-percent-2019810-sales-auto
I concur with the article. Hell, I even know the guy in the picture for the article!
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/orange-county-percent-2019810-sales-auto
I concur with the article. Hell, I even know the guy in the picture for the article!
Nude_IHB
New member
I'm not sure we are disagreeing. My original point was that people stop spending money on non-automotive mechanical repairs when they need to tighten their belts, which is a leading indicator of economic recession. You're point is that ALL mechanics are experiencing the same thing. Ok, but I didn't claim that they weren't. I'm not exactly sure why you want to argue that I did. Since it's clear that we have been in a recession for months, and OC has probably been in one for longer, it stands to reason that automotive mechanics are also seeing less repair work. So, are you just trying to be more right because you feel you have special insight and a unique perspective or am I missing something?no_vaseline said:
ipoplaya_IHB
New member
graphrix said:Ipop,
Seriously... no... seriously, your job stats are off, way off, somewhere on planet Kool-Aid. I suggest you check out the archive of the blog, and read the REal jobs situation. I have been watching the jobs, and posting about them for almost three years now.
Go check those spread sheets again, and look at the shrinking civilian labor force. This includes self-employed people, and it has been shrinking so badly, only the 90s have seen numbers that awful. We are losing jobs, and civilian labor force, at a faster and larger rate than we did during the tech bust. It shrank by 19,100 jobs YOY, and if you factor that into the unemployment number, the real unemployment number is closer to over 6% when you factor in normal growth.
Professional, technical, and scientific services have seen 0, zero, zip, nada, absolutely no growth what so ever. This was the ever growing sector, that was supposed to save the OC job market because it was immune from RE, even if the architectural sector has seen growth. The tech part of this sector is shrinking, and still after almost 7 years later, this sector has yet to get to the same level it once was. That is horrible, awful, and shows that OC has a long way to go to recover from this.
How many tech people, attorneys, CPAs, couriers, accountants, retail, interior designers, restaurants, etc. are affected by the mortgage, construction, homebuilder, RE bust?
There has been 0, zero, nada, zip, zilch, absolutely no job growth in OC outside of healthcare and education. Education shrank in the tech bust, but not in the 90s, and healthcare has grown every single year since 1990. So, anyone with quark of common sense would never, ever cite this as being positive.
No growth is not good for the economy here, and we have not seen growth in any sector other than RE the last three years, which only makes it worse. Factor in how many jobs were doing well because of RE, then it just gets worse.
For a spreadsheet junkie like yourself... I am really, really disappointed.
We are arguing two different things graph. You are talking about job growth and how RE (with your inclusion of construction and some professional services) has dominated the growth in OC workforce over recent years. Totally agree with you. I think construction has probably dominated job growth in recent years as both the residential and commercial side have been booming.
My posts on this thread were in response to the contention that loss of jobs by real estate agents, mortgage people, title agents, etc. have created a significant drag on the OC economy. Looking at your data in your analysis, I'd say that supports my conclusion. The true RE portion of the workforce is relatively small, i.e. those that are categorized as "real estate", accounting for less than 2% of average non-farm workforce. Am I interpreting your spreadsheet correctly?
The much larger piece of your RE workforce pie comes from construction, making up 5% of historical average. Over the last two years ended in February, the construction sector in OC had lost 5,700 jobs. Yes, it has not grown, yes that is bad, but we are talking about a loss of one-third of one percent of the nonfarm workforce lost over a 24-month period. Those figures will probably trend down further as commercial construction tails off, but we're not there yet. If by the summer that figure in construction stays south of 100K jobs, I'll agree with your much bleaker outlook.
no_vaseline_IHB
New member
Nude said:
For something to argue about, yo!
As bright as this group is, the ubergroupthink gets me down sometimes, so I found something petty and tangental to pick apart.
graphrix_IHB
New member
ipoplaya said:graphrix said:Ipop,
Seriously... no... seriously, your job stats are off, way off, somewhere on planet Kool-Aid. I suggest you check out the archive of the blog, and read the REal jobs situation. I have been watching the jobs, and posting about them for almost three years now.
Go check those spread sheets again, and look at the shrinking civilian labor force. This includes self-employed people, and it has been shrinking so badly, only the 90s have seen numbers that awful. We are losing jobs, and civilian labor force, at a faster and larger rate than we did during the tech bust. It shrank by 19,100 jobs YOY, and if you factor that into the unemployment number, the real unemployment number is closer to over 6% when you factor in normal growth.
Professional, technical, and scientific services have seen 0, zero, zip, nada, absolutely no growth what so ever. This was the ever growing sector, that was supposed to save the OC job market because it was immune from RE, even if the architectural sector has seen growth. The tech part of this sector is shrinking, and still after almost 7 years later, this sector has yet to get to the same level it once was. That is horrible, awful, and shows that OC has a long way to go to recover from this.
How many tech people, attorneys, CPAs, couriers, accountants, retail, interior designers, restaurants, etc. are affected by the mortgage, construction, homebuilder, RE bust?
There has been 0, zero, nada, zip, zilch, absolutely no job growth in OC outside of healthcare and education. Education shrank in the tech bust, but not in the 90s, and healthcare has grown every single year since 1990. So, anyone with quark of common sense would never, ever cite this as being positive.
No growth is not good for the economy here, and we have not seen growth in any sector other than RE the last three years, which only makes it worse. Factor in how many jobs were doing well because of RE, then it just gets worse.
For a spreadsheet junkie like yourself... I am really, really disappointed.
We are arguing two different things graph. You are talking about job growth and how RE (with your inclusion of construction and some professional services) has dominated the growth in OC workforce over recent years. Totally agree with you. I think construction has probably dominated job growth in recent years as both the residential and commercial side have been booming.
My posts on this thread were in response to the contention that loss of jobs by real estate agents, mortgage people, title agents, etc. have created a significant drag on the OC economy. Looking at your data in your analysis, I'd say that supports my conclusion. The true RE portion of the workforce is relatively small, i.e. those that are categorized as "real estate", accounting for less than 2% of average non-farm workforce. Am I interpreting your spreadsheet correctly?
The much larger piece of your RE workforce pie comes from construction, making up 5% of historical average. Over the last two years ended in February, the construction sector in OC had lost 5,700 jobs. Yes, it has not grown, yes that is bad, but we are talking about a loss of one-third of one percent of the nonfarm workforce lost over a 24-month period. Those figures will probably trend down further as commercial construction tails off, but we're not there yet. If by the summer that figure in construction stays south of 100K jobs, I'll agree with your much bleaker outlook.
Oh...if it were not sooooo late. Yeah, you get the fact that RE has been a major factor to the job growth, I get that. What you are not getting is the LACK of job growth from sectors outside of RE. They suck, I dare you, I double dare you, no... f%&kthat... I triple dare you, I want you to find me one sector that has seen growth in the last year, aside from healthcare and education. I don't give a rat's ass about how RE is a drag, my point is there has been 0, ZERO, NADA, ZIP, ZILCH, ABSOLUTELY, NONE, NO growth in the OC job market. YOU NEED JOB GROWTH TO SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF HOUSING AND THE ECONOMY. Manufacturing is down YOY, service providing is down YOY, and retail is up in such a low percentage that the zeros on my calculator are greater than positive numbers multiplied. In 8, yeah that is an eight, years professional and business services grew by less than 20k jobs. Pardon me while I puke from the less than 1% growth over 8, eight years, or the 0.125% growth per year. How much has the civilian labor force grown?
Get ready to drink the bitter old Kool-Aid, and check my comment in the commercial RE/Jamboree thread. CBRE shows a negative absorption rate of -2.5 million sqft. YOY. Blame the RE/mortgage market all you want, but the sh!t storm in CRE is about to hit. Then, take a deep breath, and stare at the computer screen, and ask yourself... has this nutter been just a nutter, or has this nutter been right? *cough* foreclosures *cough* If by summer what you say is this true, then you have drinks on me, and I have drinks on you if I am right by the end of summer. And, I will make sure skek holds us to this.
alan_IHB
New member
"I want you to find me one sector that has seen growth in the last year, aside from healthcare and education"
Exactly my concerns.
Healthcare has to be in bubble growth mode two. I think it was Minksy who said that in the late stages of a bubble, growth continues because everyone expects growth to always continue.
Healthcare currently consumes 16% of GNP and growing. This is not sustainable, we are about to hit a will and when that happens, I expect cutbacks just like in real estate.
Higher education is also getting unsutainable in it's cost structure.
I expect a really bumpy ride in the next 5-10 years.
Exactly my concerns.
Healthcare has to be in bubble growth mode two. I think it was Minksy who said that in the late stages of a bubble, growth continues because everyone expects growth to always continue.
Healthcare currently consumes 16% of GNP and growing. This is not sustainable, we are about to hit a will and when that happens, I expect cutbacks just like in real estate.
Higher education is also getting unsutainable in it's cost structure.
I expect a really bumpy ride in the next 5-10 years.
lendingmaestro_IHB
New member
OC is probably the least cost-effective places to have a corporate headquarters in the country. Why are there so many businesses here? Because the executives/owners want to live in Orange County of course.
lendingmaestro_IHB
New member
--California's unemployment rate rose by a whopping half a percentage point in March, reaching 6.2% as a weakening economy shed jobs in the ailing construction and financial activities sectors. In all, 1.13 million were unemployed.
...
California is doing worse than Pennsylvania and Ohio ... the two Rust Belt states that have figured prominently in the presidential primary elections because of their lost manufacturing jobs.--
...
California is doing worse than Pennsylvania and Ohio ... the two Rust Belt states that have figured prominently in the presidential primary elections because of their lost manufacturing jobs.--
soapboxpolitico_IHB
New member
Agreed. I think the March job numbers are the belleweather for what is about to come. It is the first horseman of the housing/economic apocalypse about to hit California. When our joblessness is higher than that of Ohio or other industrialized states that have suffered severe job losses over the last decade, you know something is seriously amiss. I think it is only going to go higher. As for IT, I wouldn't bet my savings on it sustaining high employment. I say this because I sell complex network designs and services for a large telecom in our networking division and I just got my 90 day "surplus" notice. I work directly with CIO's and CTO's and trust me on this one, their budgets are already seized and they're looking to cut costs at every turn. My funnel dried-up in no less than three months ... tough times ahead in IT too I'm afraid.
John.Doe_IHB
New member
Hey optimus,optimusprime said:
I am always looking for such predictions to see how good the guesses were (and of course, because I am a waiting renter), but I don't get that one - -30% of what? Do you predict that the average price might go down another 30% of the current average prices and then bottom out?