March data..OUCH!

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optimusprime_IHB

optimusprime_IHB

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Courtesy of the Lasner blog.....





CITY ZIP Median Change Sales Change

Irvine 92602 $740,000 -5.2% 30 -38.8%

Irvine 92603 $926,000 21.8% 24 -29.4%

Irvine 92604 $530,000 -13.4% 17 -46.9%

Irvine 92606 $605,000 1.2% 13 -43.5%

Irvine 92612 $483,500 -12.1% 11 -74.4%

Irvine 92614 $480,000 -12.9% 11 -56.0%

Irvine 92618 $503,500 -5.9% 19 -26.9%

Irvine 92620 $708,500 -2.9% 28 -44.0%



Here's the link to the rest of OC



<a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/housing-dataquick-sales-2018451-prices-median">http://www.ocregister.com/articles/housing-dataquick-sales-2018451-prices-median</a>



Just wanted to add...it's not so much the change in % of sales...but more so the fact that soooo many people still have unrealistic expectations for the price of their home. I think after this "Spring" selling season, a lot of sellers will realize...we better slash prices fast.



I really think we bottom out when change in sale price hits -30%+
 
I hear Bush on the radio yesterday saying that he would support legislation that will help the housing market correct quickly. It is funny how everyone has a different idea of what "correct" is. These sellers would say the price of homes need to climb back up, like during the bubble years. Of course, we on the blog believe the opposite. However, I think before anyone has a discussion of "corrections", that term needs to be defined. (Good luck pinning down a politician to do that!)
 
Hmmm...damn still didn't say all I wanted to say.



I think the BIGGEST reason for the huge and drastic drop in number of sales is due to the lofty asking price. Irvine isn't alone... there's a 50%+ drop in the first 3 months in OC alone.



Month ?88-?07 avg. 2007 2008 ?08 vs. avg.

January 2,737 2,400 1,286 -53.0%

February 2,838 2,449 1,471 -48.2%

March 4,078 3,130 1,663 -59.2%
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1208314070]

I think the BIGGEST reason for the huge and drastic drop in number of sales is due to the lofty asking price.

</blockquote>


The drop in sales is because everyone thinks prices will drop further. Why buy a depreciating asset.
 
[quote author="asianinvasian" date=1208314925][quote author="optimusprime" date=1208314070]

I think the BIGGEST reason for the huge and drastic drop in number of sales is due to the lofty asking price.

</blockquote>


The drop in sales is because everyone thinks prices will drop further. Why buy a depreciating asset.</blockquote>


I think it's both...which will exacerbate the downside move.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1208314070].



I think the BIGGEST reason for the huge and drastic drop in number of sales is due to the lofty asking price.</blockquote>


Prices were high last year and two years ago too. The biggest reason for the drop in sales is the evaporation of free money and now people who might have jumped in without a second thought like our friend ipop are holding back because of the expectation that prices will continue to fall.



This has been discussed at depth on this board.
 
Add in the fact that it is much harder to qualify for a mortgage right now.....



BTW...can we get the "Weird AL" & "Ipoop" battles going on again? I much enjoy reading them!
 
[quote author="lendingmaestro" date=1208316973]Add in the fact that it is much harder to qualify for a mortgage right now.....



BTW...can we get the "Weird AL" & "Ipoop" battles going on again? I much enjoy reading them!</blockquote>


I still don't buy Weird Al's thoughts on the employment picture in CA, but I've definitely moved over to the dark side. I think watching the 100+ NODs per month on Irvine houses via RealtyTrac for the past couple of months did the trick for me... That, coupled with the banks newfound desire to unload property, which wasn't happening to a great degree in 2007, really completes the bearish picture.



Now that I've turned, an amazing deal on a great house is going to pop up. I can just feel it... <a href="http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1467988">Maybe something like this</a>, a $250K price drop. Not $250K over time mind you, $250K in a single drop... Bango.
 
[quote author="optimusprime" date=1208315018][quote author="asianinvasian" date=1208314925][quote author="optimusprime" date=1208314070]

I think the BIGGEST reason for the huge and drastic drop in number of sales is due to the lofty asking price.

</blockquote>


The drop in sales is because everyone thinks prices will drop further. Why buy a depreciating asset.</blockquote>


I think it's both...which will exacerbate the downside move.</blockquote>


This is where IHB comes in too. In the past, realtors could frighten people into buying because nobody had any idea how far prices would drop. Now that IHB and others are providing information about comparative rentals and methods of evaluating market prices, buyers will not be confused as to when we are at or near the bottom (or at least rental parity.)
 
Prices have reached 2004 levels. Don't forget 2004 levels were inflated, add the current lack of credit and we will most likely see 2002 prices within a year.
 
[quote author="interloper" date=1208320987]Prices have reached 2004 levels. Don't forget 2004 levels were inflated, add the lack of current lack of credit and we will most likely see 2002 prices in within a year.</blockquote>


You will not see 2002 prices within a year. To get to December 2002 price levels would require a 32% drop from average selling prices today. That is not going to happen in 12 months.



Over the 12 months from Feb 2007 to Jan 2008, prices declined by 15% or so and that included a credit freeze where no lending at all was getting done and a big mortgage rate spike. To get to 2002 prices, our declines would have to be significantly faster than the pace of recent months and those declines were already of epic proportion. Just not going to happen...
 
The majority of the decline has occurred within the past 8 months not the last 12 months. The lack of credit market and decline in consumer confidence are going to speed the decline we've seen in these 8 months.



I may be wrong, but considering the job losses and bankruptcies we will be seeing in the next year of all these retailers, don't be surprised if you see 2002 prices.
 
[quote author="irvine2010" date=1208324889]also don't forget to consider the interest rates. there's a high probability of rates going north once the elections r over.</blockquote>


Why is that 2010?
 
[quote author="interloper" date=1208324056]The majority of the decline has occurred within the past 8 months not the last 12 months. The lack of credit market and decline in consumer confidence are going to speed the decline we've seen in these 8 months.



I may be wrong, but considering the job losses and bankruptcies we will be seeing in the next year of all these retailers, don't be surprised if you see 2002 prices.</blockquote>


I don't see the employment picture as bleak as you because I haven't seen data to support it. People keep talking about massive job losses, BKs, etc. and there hasn't been much economic news to support it. The March Challenger report showed only a slight uptick in planned layoffs (5K jobs) year-over-year... Our unemployment rate in SoCal for Feb 2008 was exactly the same as July 2005 and and home prices weren't exactly in a freefall then. So far, this recession has not been characterized by big job loss. That could of course change, but I won't believe it until I see it.
 
[quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208327968][quote author="interloper" date=1208324056]The majority of the decline has occurred within the past 8 months not the last 12 months. The lack of credit market and decline in consumer confidence are going to speed the decline we've seen in these 8 months.



I may be wrong, but considering the job losses and bankruptcies we will be seeing in the next year of all these retailers, don't be surprised if you see 2002 prices.</blockquote>


I don't see the employment picture as bleak as you because I haven't seen data to support it. People keep talking about massive job losses, BKs, etc. and there hasn't been much economic news to support it. The March Challenger report showed only a slight uptick in planned layoffs (5K jobs) year-over-year... Our unemployment rate in SoCal for Feb 2008 was exactly the same as July 2005 and and home prices weren't exactly in a freefall then. So far, this recession has not been characterized by big job loss. That could of course change, but I won't believe it until I see it.</blockquote>


In IT, you are seeing the best sector in a weak job market. Real Estate and associated fields are not doing well at all. I know several unemployed mortgage brokers, and their jobs are not coming back.
 
[quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1208328683][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208327968][quote author="interloper" date=1208324056]The majority of the decline has occurred within the past 8 months not the last 12 months. The lack of credit market and decline in consumer confidence are going to speed the decline we've seen in these 8 months.



I may be wrong, but considering the job losses and bankruptcies we will be seeing in the next year of all these retailers, don't be surprised if you see 2002 prices.</blockquote>


I don't see the employment picture as bleak as you because I haven't seen data to support it. People keep talking about massive job losses, BKs, etc. and there hasn't been much economic news to support it. The March Challenger report showed only a slight uptick in planned layoffs (5K jobs) year-over-year... Our unemployment rate in SoCal for Feb 2008 was exactly the same as July 2005 and and home prices weren't exactly in a freefall then. So far, this recession has not been characterized by big job loss. That could of course change, but I won't believe it until I see it.</blockquote>


In IT, you are seeing the best sector in a weak job market. Real Estate and associated fields are not doing well at all. I know several unemployed mortgage brokers, and their jobs are not coming back.</blockquote>
How about construction jobs?
 
[quote author="Nude" date=1208329087][quote author="IrvineRenter" date=1208328683][quote author="ipoplaya" date=1208327968][quote author="interloper" date=1208324056]The majority of the decline has occurred within the past 8 months not the last 12 months. The lack of credit market and decline in consumer confidence are going to speed the decline we've seen in these 8 months.



I may be wrong, but considering the job losses and bankruptcies we will be seeing in the next year of all these retailers, don't be surprised if you see 2002 prices.</blockquote>


I don't see the employment picture as bleak as you because I haven't seen data to support it. People keep talking about massive job losses, BKs, etc. and there hasn't been much economic news to support it. The March Challenger report showed only a slight uptick in planned layoffs (5K jobs) year-over-year... Our unemployment rate in SoCal for Feb 2008 was exactly the same as July 2005 and and home prices weren't exactly in a freefall then. So far, this recession has not been characterized by big job loss. That could of course change, but I won't believe it until I see it.</blockquote>


In IT, you are seeing the best sector in a weak job market. Real Estate and associated fields are not doing well at all. I know several unemployed mortgage brokers, and their jobs are not coming back.</blockquote>
How about construction jobs?</blockquote>


Ok, mortgage and construction are hurting. If things are so bleak, why is our unemployment rate similar to 2005 numbers and better than 2004 when mortgage and construction were theoretically booming?
 
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