Macro Economics Real Estate Analysis
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Most people hate humidity...as well as extreme cold weather.
+1 Nothing worse than HOT & HUMID. Vegas heat I can deal with because it's a dry heat, but being hot and sweating endlessly is brutal.
panda
Well-known member
Below is the performance of the MSA cities below. The top performing MSA cities are Denver (11.6% above previous peak value), Dallas (10.2% above previous peak value), Portland (2% above previous peak value), and Boston (0.2% above previous peak value). San Francisco is very close to its previous peak value at -0.2%, and Charlotte is also very close to its previous peak value at -0.4%.
Below you can see the performance of the various MSA cities. At rank #8, Atlanta is currently 7.9% below the previous peak on July 2007. Los Angeles ranks #12, which is currently 12.2% below its previous peak. With job data, uemployment, and the perferomance of Russell, we should be able to see some correlation to predict where the real estate values are headed in Los Angeles.
Comparison of Case Shiller Data for Atlanta, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and S&P 500.
Below you can see the performance of the various MSA cities. At rank #8, Atlanta is currently 7.9% below the previous peak on July 2007. Los Angeles ranks #12, which is currently 12.2% below its previous peak. With job data, uemployment, and the perferomance of Russell, we should be able to see some correlation to predict where the real estate values are headed in Los Angeles.
Comparison of Case Shiller Data for Atlanta, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and S&P 500.
panda
Well-known member
Take a look at the top 5 metro areas with the largest increase in jobs:
?New York-Newark-Jersey City had the highest increase in jobs for any metropolitan area in the country with 156,400 new jobs.
?Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA came in second with 135,100 jobs.
?Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX was third with 98,900 jobs.
?Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA came in fourth with 77,800 jobs.
?Washington-Arlington-Alexandria rounded out the top five with 68,500 jobs.
?New York-Newark-Jersey City had the highest increase in jobs for any metropolitan area in the country with 156,400 new jobs.
?Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA came in second with 135,100 jobs.
?Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX was third with 98,900 jobs.
?Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA came in fourth with 77,800 jobs.
?Washington-Arlington-Alexandria rounded out the top five with 68,500 jobs.
Irvinecommuter
New member
Still in Georgia.
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter,
Looking at my research and IRS and immigration migration data, I am not disagreeing with your statement. It doesn't appear to me that Georgia is a popular gateway for families moving out of California. You can see from the chart below that Texas is the largest gateway to capture out of state transfers from California. Now I am now curious to see if Florida is a major gateway for Californias, but I seriously doubt it. I am going to check anyways.
I would agree with this finding. Although, I do see a lot of Californians both the bay area and socal investing in Georgia, rarely would I ever see a family move out of California for Georgia as their primary residence. Maybe a 1 to 100 ratio. Georgia's primary gateway are the colder cities in the midwest and east coast like New York, New Jersey, and Chicago.
Looking at my research and IRS and immigration migration data, I am not disagreeing with your statement. It doesn't appear to me that Georgia is a popular gateway for families moving out of California. You can see from the chart below that Texas is the largest gateway to capture out of state transfers from California. Now I am now curious to see if Florida is a major gateway for Californias, but I seriously doubt it. I am going to check anyways.
I would agree with this finding. Although, I do see a lot of Californians both the bay area and socal investing in Georgia, rarely would I ever see a family move out of California for Georgia as their primary residence. Maybe a 1 to 100 ratio. Georgia's primary gateway are the colder cities in the midwest and east coast like New York, New Jersey, and Chicago.
Irvinecommuter said:
Irvinecommuter
New member
Panda...I am goosing you a little but you are posting on a blog focused on Irvine/OC.
We can talk about macro economic and real estate all we want but RE is lagging indicator of economy. People live in and buy in California for a number of reasons that cannot be replicated elsewhere, a couple of those things are weather and geographic location. Others include education and diversity (which are somewhat duplicable but takes a long time).
We can talk about macro economic and real estate all we want but RE is lagging indicator of economy. People live in and buy in California for a number of reasons that cannot be replicated elsewhere, a couple of those things are weather and geographic location. Others include education and diversity (which are somewhat duplicable but takes a long time).
panda
Well-known member
Irvinecommuter,
Again, I am not arguing the demand of housing in LA/OC. You can see from my inventory data that OC/LA ranks #8 in terms of inventory shortage. The inventory in LA/OC has decreased by 66% between 2010 - 2016. As an investment though, that is a different story as you can't cash flow with 20% down pretty much anywhere in California.
The data for Florida looks very similar to that of Georgia in term of net migration. Florida is a also not a major gateway to Californians. I am curious to understand what is the major draw of Texas as the largest gateway for Californian out of state transfers vs Georgia and Florida.
State of Florida
Gained Wealth From:
$23.82 billion New York
$14.79 billion New Jersey
$10.31 billion Illinois
$8.58 billion Pennsylvania
$8.22 billion Ohio
Lost Wealth To:
$1.65 billion Texas
$1.36 billion North Carolina
$866.37 million Tennessee
$488.72 million South Carolina
$458.05 million Arizona
The top 5 gateways to California are :
1. Neveda - Las Vegas
2. Arizona - Phoenix
3. Texas - Dallas, Houston, Austin
4. Oregon - Portlland - mentioned by Socal
5. Washington - Seattle
Again, I am not arguing the demand of housing in LA/OC. You can see from my inventory data that OC/LA ranks #8 in terms of inventory shortage. The inventory in LA/OC has decreased by 66% between 2010 - 2016. As an investment though, that is a different story as you can't cash flow with 20% down pretty much anywhere in California.
The data for Florida looks very similar to that of Georgia in term of net migration. Florida is a also not a major gateway to Californians. I am curious to understand what is the major draw of Texas as the largest gateway for Californian out of state transfers vs Georgia and Florida.
State of Florida
Gained Wealth From:
$23.82 billion New York
$14.79 billion New Jersey
$10.31 billion Illinois
$8.58 billion Pennsylvania
$8.22 billion Ohio
Lost Wealth To:
$1.65 billion Texas
$1.36 billion North Carolina
$866.37 million Tennessee
$488.72 million South Carolina
$458.05 million Arizona
The top 5 gateways to California are :
1. Neveda - Las Vegas
2. Arizona - Phoenix
3. Texas - Dallas, Houston, Austin
4. Oregon - Portlland - mentioned by Socal
5. Washington - Seattle
Irvinecommuter
New member
paydawg said:
Most people hate humidity...as well as extreme cold weather.
usctrojancpa
Well-known member
paydawg said:
+1 Nothing worse than HOT & HUMID. Vegas heat I can deal with because it's a dry heat, but being hot and sweating endlessly is brutal.
panda
Well-known member
The largest relocation gateway states for Californians are Neveda, Texas, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona. These states seem to have closer weather to the Mediterranean weather vs tropical like the southeast. So I guess the weather can be a big factor for Californian relocations. This would also make sense why Texas would be the #1 relocation state for Californians.
Source:http://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/
Source:http://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/
USCTrojanCPA said:
panda
Well-known member
Source:http://www.howmoneywalks.com/irs-tax-migration/
From this link you can see that these eleven states are the "Green" states where money is flowing in from relocations according to the IRS migration data. If you plan to retire outside of California, make sure to relocate to one of these 11 Green States. The University selection is better in the southeast "Green" states vs the southwest "Green" states. It is evident that there is a transfer of wealth from the Red states to the Green states.
Californians are moving out to these 6 "Green" states
1. Washington - University of Washington
2. Oregon - University of Oregon
3. Neveda - University of Neveda
4. Arizona - Arizona State
5. Colorado - University of Colorado
6. Texas - University of Texas - Austin - rank #50
New Yorkers, Jersey, and Illinois residents are moving to these 5 "Green" southern states.
1. Tennessee
2. North Carolina - University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill - (Top #30)
3. South Carolina
4. Georgia - Georgia Tech (Rank #35)
5. Florida - University of Florida
From this link you can see that these eleven states are the "Green" states where money is flowing in from relocations according to the IRS migration data. If you plan to retire outside of California, make sure to relocate to one of these 11 Green States. The University selection is better in the southeast "Green" states vs the southwest "Green" states. It is evident that there is a transfer of wealth from the Red states to the Green states.
Californians are moving out to these 6 "Green" states
1. Washington - University of Washington
2. Oregon - University of Oregon
3. Neveda - University of Neveda
4. Arizona - Arizona State
5. Colorado - University of Colorado
6. Texas - University of Texas - Austin - rank #50
New Yorkers, Jersey, and Illinois residents are moving to these 5 "Green" southern states.
1. Tennessee
2. North Carolina - University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill - (Top #30)
3. South Carolina
4. Georgia - Georgia Tech (Rank #35)
5. Florida - University of Florida
irvinehomeowner
Well-known member
My 3rd option would probably be some suburb near Vancouver.
Yes... I would move to the land of Celine before Texas or Georgia.
Yes... I would move to the land of Celine before Texas or Georgia.