Learning/lessons from the past boom/bust in Irvine (OC)

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Re_fan, I was trying to get away with a simple statement but since you asked here's the long version.





One needs to focus on the NASDAQ, and not the DJ, when analyzing the dot.com crash.





The DJ did not "boom" but rather remained consistent with its historical growth of 10 to 15 percent during the dot.com boom (1998 to 2000). Thus, the DJ has remained the steady growth investment (like bonds) While it did suffer some residual effects from the dot.com collapse, the DJ has remained consistent in it slow and steady growth.





NASDAQ on the other hand, has a growth rate of 200%/year between 1998 to 2000 (historical rate of increase was also about 10 to 15 percent a year). When it crashed in 2000, the NASDAQ fell hard and fast, losing about 75% of its value. 7 years after the crash, the NASDAQ is about 50 percent of what it was in 2000. (2500 v. 5000). In effect, it took the market approximately 5-7 years to recover its pre-boom value. That is for a volatile item like stock where people can simply pick up the phone and buy shares at a moments notice. Housing takes a lot more time to turn.





As for my point on the economy, is that the lines between different sectors are extremely blurry now. As evident by the mortgage collapse, all sorts of companies and banks are connected in ways that were not even considered 15 years ago.
 
<p>Aww .. i see the analogy. So you are essentially equating the housing market to the tech market crash.. so you believe that today's home prices are so inflated that we will see an inevitable crash of whatever percentage... and that such prices will not ever be recouped for a long time coming (like the NSDQ)?</p>

<p> </p>
 
<p><em>>>As for my point on the economy, is that the lines between different sectors are extremely blurry now. As evident by the mortgage collapse, all sorts of companies and banks are connected in ways that were not even considered 15 years ago.</em> </p>

<p>Or to put it another way: General Motors doesn't just build cars. </p>
 
<p>re_fan . .. that is essential my point. . . I think that housing is a good deal in the long run but the prices are so high now that it'll take decades (barring another crazy boom) to get to anywhere close to what we had. Going back to my tech analogy, companies like cisco and intel are financially sound and responsible but their stocks values are pretty much the same as they were prior to the tech boom/bust. They'll still grow at a 10-15% rate but it'll take 10-20 years for them to get back to the same level as what they were in 2000. But by that time, the stock price would be realistic (consistent with growth and inflation). It's like if you bought Cisco at 65 and still waiting 7 years later for it to get back there. </p>

<p>Eva. . .it goes even further than that with the globalization of our economy, everything is interconnected. The housing bubble burst in the 1990s was relatively limited to the US (and a certain extent Japan). But this time, foreign banks are buying mortgage-backed bonds and financing lenders at whim. Also, I think the amount of money we are talking about is unprecedented. The potential loss on a foreclosed home is $100-$200K (depending on the area). Multiply that by 3 to 7 million, the result is unbelieveable. </p>
 
"Financially-minded" gold-digging bimbos can go to Kelleher or one of the many "elite" sites that are out there. You know, the kind that require all the male members to be rich, and the female members to be under 30 with bigger boobs than brains? Now, as for the kind of finance-minded singles you actually are referring to, I think we're out of luck. So I am trying my luck in groups and clubs. For example, I am a member of Mensa and BGS (kind of a post-graduate honor society for MBAs) but haven't gone to any events so I guess I can't blame them for not working out for me yet!
 
OMG, please don't think I was being obnoxious, it's really not that big of a deal. I don't know what the rules are now, but when I joined Mensa, you could use your SAT scores to get in. This was before the essay portion was included, and I think that the cut-off was like 1280 or something. In other words, about 90% of the students at Uni, Northwood, Woodbridge, etc., could become members if they were interested! The point I was trying to make ---ISM has vivid flashbacks to the debut months of IHB where she was soundly taken down by annoyed readers who got tired of hearing about her six-figure salary, "get over yourself, no wonder you're still single" --- was simply that it is indeed, difficult for people with the kind of brainpower we see all over IHB every day to connect with similarly-talented singles. FWIW, in my opinion the majority of the regular analytical posters on IHB are on par with, or even smarter than, the people who happen to decide to sign up with Mensa.
 
irvinesinglemom - Maybe this is a dumb idea, but have you thought of taking up golf, surfing, or rock climbing? Lots of guys.
 
<p>Motorcycling. The gender balance is WAY out of whack and many of the men are single.</p>

<p>Might not be a good idea for moms, though. </p>
 
I'm with ya, oc_flip. I appreciate tasteless jokes as much as the next bubblehead. (remember my tasteless reaction to a "bubblehead porn" analytical link a few months ago? reminder: ooohh, yea baby, that's so good!)
 
Not to throw cold water on all your well-intentioned suggestions but...I didn't have too much trouble meeting people before I became a mom. I have lots of interests, just have a constant responsibility overshadowing everything else in my world right now (and that responsibility is the love of my life, imagine a heart-shaped smiley right here, if I could take my large brain over to the Apple store so they could show me how to paste emoticons into my comments on my iBook!!) Aaack!
 
<p>Janet: You see what I meant about gold getting dragged down in a deflationary rout? There's little reason to think that gold will defy gravity when investors are exiting virtually every asset class.</p>

<p><img alt="" src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/w?s=GLD" /></p>

<p>Of course, Ben's helicopters could change all this...</p>

<p><strong>Edit</strong>: Why did this appear in a different thread than the one to which I posted it?</p>
 
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